Climate promises hang fire as big economies don't warm up to COP29

Indian minister likely to skip summit, which begins today; Trump's shadow looms over climate finance commitments

With the Conference of Parties (COP29) beginning in Baku on Monday to bring solutions to climate change, uncertainty over the outcome of the annual event is looming large with major economies, including the US and the EU, planning to stay on the sidelines of the event being held at a time when 2024 is on track to become the hottest year on record. 

The Indian minister for environment, forest and climate change is likely to skip the November 11-22 event. India also doesn’t have an official pavilion at the venue this time, sources said. A spokesperson of the ministry did not respond to this query till the time of going to press. 

It is feared that the COP could be a washout as major economies, including the United States, the European Union and Brazil, are not sending official teams to COP29, according to global media reports. 

Pacific island nation Papua New Guinea has pulled out of COP29, citing its frustration over “empty promises and inaction.”

The shadow of US President-elect Donald Trump is feared to linger on the COP this year. In 2017, the then president Trump had announced its intent to exit the Paris Climate Agreement, casting doubt on global climate efforts. 

The COP this year holds significance as it will witness the submission of first revised nationally determined contributions (NDCs) since the Paris COP21 and new financing promises by the Global North. 

Member countries are expected to announce their new climate commitments/NDCs in the first few days of COP. This would include the COP leadership troika of Azerbaijan, Brazil, and the UK. An analysis by Climate Trends stated new NDCs are due by February 2025 and are expected to build on the Global Stocktake and the COP28 deal where countries committed to “transitioning away” from fossil fuels and set targets for renewable energy capacity and energy efficiency. 

“A major test will be the NDCs from larger economies— these will determine if the Paris Agreement remains within reach. For developing countries, instead, this is an opportunity to send the right policy signals and ensure inclusivity, securing full buy-in from their populations. But the financing needs to be there,” Selwin Hart, special adviser to the secretary-general on Climate Action and Just Transition, United Nations, said. 

 Aarti Khosla, director, Climate Trends said Trump’s actions on climate policy last time, and decision to withdraw from Paris Agreement give no confidence that he will give the right attention the climate emergency requires. 

 “An ambitious New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) agreement at COP can ensure that money flows and that money is mobilised, even if the contribution from the US reduces to zero. Other global leaders will be expected to rise to the climate challenge. The EU and China are moving forward competitively. Nations like Brazil, India, and Kenya have also shown ambition which will continue,” Khosla said. 

 NCQG on climate finance set a floor amount of $100 billion per year which the developed world had to shell out towards the developing world. Every year since COP21 where it was decided, this goal has been missed.  

In 2023, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) claimed the commitment of $100 billion was met, but several nations have contested the claim.