Cloudy with a chance of debate: Making of a 'normal' monsoon in India

CHASING THE CLOUDS: Timeliness, distribution, and spread of this complex weather pattern are critical to farm output and economic growth

The great debate on monsoon predictions has been soaking up headlines of late. Even as it seeks to dispel clouds of uncertainty over its arrival, monsoon chasers and weathermen can all agree on the complexity of this weather pattern.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) sought to calm nerves about food supplies when it forecast a ‘normal’ monsoon for the June-September period at 96 per cent of the long period average (LPA).

IMD’s first monsoon forecast for the year came close on the heels of private weather forecasting agency Skymet predicting a ‘below-normal’ monsoon at 94 per cent of LPA.

Both forecasts have an error margin of plus/minus 5 per cent of LPA.

Both IMD and Skymet had nearly similar views on the emergence of El Niño. What they differed on was the impact El Niño and other factors could have on the monsoon’s trajectory this year.

El Niño is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño-related disruption of global atmospheric circulation extends beyond Pacific Rim nations. Strong El Niño events contribute to weaker monsoons in India and Southeast Asia.

Skymet said a strong Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — another factor influencing the Indian monsoon — could add to the El Niño effect. “The IOD is neutral now and is leaning to turn moderately positive at the start of the monsoon,” it said.

“El Niño and IOD are likely to be ‘out of phase’ and may lead to extreme variability in the monthly rainfall distribution. The second half of the season is expected to be more aberrated,” said Skymet on April 10.

The IMD said two days later that neutral IOD conditions are present over the Indian Ocean and the latest climate model forecast indicates that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season.

“Positive IOD is good for southwest monsoon over India,” IMD said.

What makes a monsoon

IMD added that the snow over the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia was below normal between December 2022 and March 2023. Thin snow cover in two places in winter and spring is favourable for the subsequent southwest monsoon rainfall over India.

Skymet said El Niño’s impact will overshadow all positives, but IMD said “ancillary factors” will balance out the negative impact.

More than the actual quantum of monsoon rainfall, its timeliness, distribution, and spread are of vital importance for the life and growth of crops.

Rains were ‘above normal’ at over 106 per cent of LPA in 2022, but large tracts of India, particularly Bihar, Jharkhand, and eastern Uttar Pradesh, suffered drought-like conditions.

Weather forecasters say that in any given year, about 25-30 per cent of the Indian landmass gets rains that are less than normal for the monsoon months.

Irrigating more than half of the country’s farmland, the monsoon is critical for economic growth. A normal monsoon is important for agriculture and allied activities and therefore, for food and overall retail price inflation.

Many economic forecasters, including the Reserve Bank of India, make an assumption of a normal monsoon while projecting inflation.

However, there are other factors, such as international supplies, Covid-19 lockdowns and the Russia-Ukraine stand-off, that may keep the rate of inflation rate.

The years 2020-21 and 2022-23 are apt examples of factors other than monsoon keeping food and overall retail price inflation high.

Similarly, all of El Niño in the past 15 such events since 1951 haven’t always led to below-normal rains and 40 per cent of the time rains in the El Niño years has been normal.

But the counter-argument to this is that 60 per cent of El Niño years have led to below-normal rains and therefore, the probability of El Niño watering down the monsoon is higher.

This year, most experts and policymakers feel that given the inflation trajectory, mainly in food items, is headed south, prices might not immediately move north, particularly of household staples like wheat, rice, edible oil, and even some pulses, if managed efficiently.

But the big black hole is vegetable and fruit prices.

Vegetables are the most impacted by dry and hot weather and uneven rainfall. Managing their supplies is tricky in the absence of any big-ticket central government intervention.

Consumer price index-based inflation has decreased in the last year due to abundant supplies. But whether any break in rainfall will keep it down remains to be seen in the next six to eight months.