Joint satellite to port, unrest to stall key India-Bangladesh projects

It seems ages ago, but even in June this year, India and Bangladesh had agreed to launch a satellite in a “joint development” using an Indian launch vehicle. It is unlikely that discussions like these will happen for a long time in the post-Sheikh Hasina era in Bangladesh.

The satellite launch project was the cherry on top of a long list of projects the two countries had agreed upon in recent years. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had said the “India-Bangladesh Maitree Satellite” would give a new dimension to bilateral cooperation. 

A memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorization Centre (IN-SPACE) and the Bangladesh government’s Ministry of Posts, Telecommunication and Information Technology was signed on June 24.

A significant milestone for India-Bangladesh cooperation was supposed to be the operationalisation of a Mongla port terminal under the management of India Ports Global Limited. The formal signing of the deal, a major success for India since China was a competitor for the project, was scheduled for August. 

The Indian Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways, while still proceeding under the assumption that the deal will happen, is realistic about the new deadline. Each ministry of the Government of India is prepared for a long wait as a new government takes over in Dhaka and sets its priorities. "The projects will possibly have to wait for elections before we even begin the next round of talks," said one of the key government officials in Delhi.

A long list of such projects, signed or even commissioned recently, could face questions now. Bangladesh needed these projects to expand the economic potential of a nation that is essentially surrounded by India on almost all sides. Its graduation out of the league of the poorest nations, anticipated by 2026, depended on making these projects operational.

While the satellite project was some way off, the power sector had become a standout example of cooperation. An intra-regional electricity trade market was in the works, including competitively priced power generated from clean energy projects in India, Nepal, and Bhutan, through the Indian electricity grid. A 765 kV high-capacity interconnection between the Katihar-Parbatipur-Bornagar link is under construction.

Of these, Adani Power had just this year begun to export up to 1.6 GW of electric power to Bangladesh each day from its thermal plant at Godda in Bihar. Even on Monday, as Bangladesh was politically convulsed, the plant exported 1.2 GW of power. 

Significantly, it was far less than the average of 1.5 GW achieved in July. Payment mechanisms could be in question now as the project faced political opposition even when Sheikh Hasina was in power. This could also impact the Maitree Super Thermal Power Project, constructed by the Bangladesh-India Friendship Power Company as a 50:50 joint venture between the Bangladesh Power Development Board and NTPC with an investment of approximately Rs 20,000 crore.

For years, Bangladesh and Indian economic relations had danced around the edges of substantive agreements without reaching a firm conclusion. The best example of this was the rules governing how Indian ships will navigate Bangladesh waters to reach the Northeast. 

The countries share 54 rivers, but since the signing of the India–Bangladesh Protocol Route in 1972, meant to use the river and sea routes to transport goods and passengers, they have instead only added further restrictions on transit between the two at every review. Talks hardly made any progress until the Awami League government decided to change the country’s priorities after winning a second successive term.

One of the agreements that began the change was the Coastal Shipping Agreement of 2015 between the two countries. The agreement acknowledged that sea transport from India to Bangladesh was to be treated as coastal movement. The Haldia Dock Complex under Kolkata Port Trust was designated as the transhipment port for containerised cargo travelling between the two countries. 

In the latest review, Bangladesh ships have been offered access to more ports in India like Vizag and Paradeep to accommodate rising trade volumes. Reciprocally, Bangladesh has granted India full access to both the Chittagong and Mongla ports for transit and cargo shipping, a move that has already boosted bilateral trade.

A Regional Waterways Grid has been conceptualised, linking the rivers and seas connecting India’s two arms, the Northeast and Central India, with Bangladesh in the middle. A study is being conducted by the Inland Waterways Authority of India this year, estimating the cost parameters of running such a grid with minimal customs, port, and transport interference.

Of the others in recent years, the MoU signed in October 2019 between the Ministry of Jal Shakti, India, and the Ministry of Water Resources, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh on the withdrawal of 1.82 cusecs of water from the Feni River by India for a drinking water supply scheme for Sabroom town, Tripura, India, is almost equally momentous. These agreements had begun to generate confidence. 

The first MoU was followed up by another MoU in September 2022 between the same agencies for the withdrawal of up to 153 cusecs of water each by both nations from the common border river Kushiyara during the dry season for their water needs.

At a larger level, Bangladesh is at the converging point of India’s "Neighbourhood First” policy, "Act East” policy, SAGAR doctrine, and the Indo-Pacific vision. Read together, the nation had become an indispensable partner in the development of India’s northeastern region.

As Ambassador Sanjay Bhattacharya put it: “Successive Indian governments sought better relations with Bangladesh, and reciprocal sentiment to not promote anti-India positions helped put our relations on a positive trajectory with momentum to reach greater heights.”

There were projects in all sectors. These included the early operationalisation of the BBIN Motor Vehicle Agreement to promote sub-regional connectivity. In this context, the two governments signed an MoU on railway connectivity, of which the key is a decision to commence goods-train service from Gede-Darshana through Chilahati-Haldibari up to Hasimara via the Dalgaon railhead, right up to the Bhutan border. 

In the medical tourism sector, the e-Medical Visa facility for people from Bangladesh travelling to India for medical treatment has been expedited. India opened a new Assistant High Commission in Rangpur as a step to facilitate expeditious consular and visa services for the people of the north-west region of Bangladesh.

The final icing was supposed to be the signing of a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the early operationalisation of two Special Economic Zones (SEZs) offered by Bangladesh to India in Mongla and Mirsharai. These will, in all certainty, hit the drawing boards again.