Staggered withdrawal of monsoon likely to lift rabi sowing prospects

But excess rainfall now could be detrimental for early sown kharif crops

Staggered withdrawal of the southwest monsoon will not only benefit the standing kharif crops, but also help improve the moisture level in the soil. This, in return, should facilitate the early sowing of rabi crops, such as wheat, chana and mustard.
 
Excess showers in parts of Madhya Pradesh at the fag end of the monsoon season, however, are said to be hurting soybean crops.
 
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday said that the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon has started from western Rajasthan, after a delay of almost eight days.
 
But it further said fresh weather systems are developing over the Andaman Sea and East Central Bay of Bengal. They are likely to move west-northwestwards with the possibility of gradual intensification.
 
“This weather system may cause rainfall again over Madhya Pradesh and up to east Rajasthan. This would delay the pace of the withdrawal of southwest monsoon,” Mahesh Palawat, vice-president of meteorology and climate change at private weather forecasting agency Skymet told Business Standard.
 
 Palawat said that rainfall may continue until the first week of October over central India, in states like Chhattisgarh and Odisha, and that should improve the residual soil moisture.
 
The revival of the monsoon rainfall in September not only gave a fresh lease of life to the standing crops in many places but also slightly pushed up water levels in reservoirs.
 
Until August, the average water level in 150 reservoirs across India that are monitored by the Central Water Commission was around 9 per cent lower than the 10-year average; this by September 21, was 8 per cent lower than the 10-year average.
 
In Madhya Pradesh, though, some farmers are worried about excess rainfall over the past few days -- after the long dry spell in August – saying it has damaged soybean crops in some areas.
 
Pushan Sharma, director-research, CRISIL Market Intelligence and Analytics, said while the pick-up in monsoon bodes well, rainfall towards the end of September and early October remain a critical aspect to monitor, since it may have a detrimental impact on the kharif yield.
 
“But, the southwest monsoon plays a critical role in the rabi season, which depends to a very large extent on reservoir levels. As of September 21, 2023 (as per Central Water Commission), pan-Indian reservoir levels are 8 per cent below LPA and 19 per cent below last year's levels; this can be a cause for concern, especially in the eastern and southern regions. One can expect a shift from paddy to maize in some of the impacted states, especially Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal where reservoir levels are quite low. Some improvement in reservoir levels can be expected as rainfall has picked up after September 20," Sharma said.
 
Rahul Chauhan, a commodity analyst at iGrain India, said excess rainfall at this time of the year may not be “very good” for all crops but the late-sown crops may benefit.
 
He said recent rains in Rajasthan may be bad for guar, moong, groundnut, and cotton and in Gujarat, it is bad for pulses.