Tur, urad, masur: Tracking pulses as India preps for kharif season

Monsoon may see climate phenomenon, but country has enough stocks of chana

The pulses crops have been in the spotlight since the last few months largely due to a rise in prices coupled with their availability owing to lower-than-expected tur and urad output during the 2022-23 crop year.

With the southwest monsoon bracing for the impact of El Nino, all eyes are on how the kharif production of pulses pans out in the next few months.

Though early days, sowing of kharif pulses has started on a tepid note, and till last week, acreage was around 41 per cent down year-on- year (YoY).

The good news is the wide availability of chana (gram), the largest pulses grown in the country. Chana comprises almost half of the total annual pulses production of around 27-29 million tonnes.

Chana stocks in the central pool, after the latest round of procurement, stand at around 3.8 million tonnes. This is nearly 1.4 million tonnes more than the same period last year.

The government can use the chana stocks to cool down prices of other pulses. Zero-duty imports should encourage importers to enter into long-term contracts at reasonable rates and prevent price flare-ups.

Pulses production in the crop year 2022-23 (July to June) is projected to be around 27.5 million tones. This is slightly more than the same period last year, according to the third advance estimates on food grains released a month back.

According to this estimate, production of both tur and urad is expected to be less than last year while that of moong and masur is projected to be more (see chart). Chana output is estimated to be almost the same as last year at 13.5 million tonnes.

The government, in the last few months, imposed stock limits on tur and urad till October 31. It also removed a cap on procurement imposed a few years back at 40 per cent of the total production. The government’s measures aim to ensure that farmers freely plant tur and urad in the kharif season without the fear of any sharp drop in prices.

Ensuring that pulses are available at fair prices is vital for inflation control as the government prepares for state elections this year and the Lok Sabha polls in 2024.

Pulses and monsoon

There is no direct correlation but studies have shown that in any low-monsoon year, pulses and oilseeds, along with vegetables, are more susceptible to price flare-ups. 

An analysis by commodity exchange NCDEX of the last 12 years’ monsoon data and kharif production shows that the output of pulses, oilseeds and cotton is most vulnerable to below-normal rains. Cereals and millets are resilient in comparison.

Around 30-35 per cent of India’s pulses production comes during the kharif season and the rest is from rabi. 

The production of kharif pulses in the last two deficient monsoon years of 2014 and 2015, dropped 4.4 per cent and 3.5 per cent, YoY, respectively, according to the NCDEX analysis.

Kharif crops are sown in late June or July and harvested in September or early October.

How do the production and price scenarios look for major pulses as the kharif sowing season nears?

Tur and urad

Tur and urad prices increased because of low domestic production and firm international markets. But after the Centre imposed stock limits a few weeks back, there has been moderation.

Tur was selling at Rs 9,500-10,500 per quintal in major domestic markets a few days ago.

“My expectation is that in the coming kharif season, sowing of tur crops will see a good jump. But it all depends on what impact El Nino will have on the monsoon. Though pulses need less water than other crops, if there is no rain and the heat does not abate, it will have an impact on production,” said Rahul Chauhan, commodity analyst at iGrain India.

Urad

Urad traded above the 2023-24 MSP of Rs 6,950 per quintal for the last few months and it is currently at around Rs 8350-9050 per quintal. Prices dropped a bit in some places after stock limits.

Myanmar’s urad export is slow and Indian traders believe that the commodity’s prices will remain high till the new domestic crop arrives in the market. Just like tur, urad sowing is expected to get a fillip due to good prices but El Nino will play a big role.

Chana

The saving grace is that central government agencies have almost 3.8 million tonnes of chana, or around 1.13 million tonnes more than last year. Traders said the stocks can be used to intervene in the pulses market and cool down prices.

Moong and masur

Moong saw the highest increase in 2023-24 MSP among all crops. The support grew 10.35 per cent, from Rs 7,755 per quintal to Rs 8,558 per quintal.

New summer moong crops have started arriving in Madhya Pradesh, Punjab and Gujarat and the procurement has also started. Production in 2022-23 is expected to be around 18.4 per cent more than the last year. In masur(lentils) traders said 

Traders said in masur (lentil), Canada and Australia had a good crop last year and prices traded below MSP in India when the new crop arrived in the domestic market.

Going forward, much will also depend on what prices imports happen, they said.