Rio declaration? Battle lines drawn over wars in Ukraine, West Asia

Geopolitics is expected to dominate the two-day G20 Leaders’ Summit in Rio de Janeiro, beginning Monday under Brazil’s presidency, with negotiators grappling to find a language acceptable to all member countries for a joint declaration. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Indonesia are pushing for explicit mention of Israel and a call for a ceasefire in the ongoing West Asia conflict, according to a G20 negotiator.

 

“Negotiations remain complex and are at a critical stage,” the negotiator said. “Nothing is finalised yet. Discussions are still ongoing on geopolitics, climate, and trade. Paragraphs on West Asia and Ukraine are still being negotiated. Whether a joint declaration will emerge remains uncertain, to be determined only at the last moment. Protectionism and market access are key issues, with China and the US on opposing sides. Though Donald Trump’s victory (in US presidential elections) has not yet overshadowed the discussions yet, it may influence talks on climate change.”

 

Brazil has adopted the theme “Building a Just World and a Sustainable Planet” for its presidency, with a focus on fighting hunger, poverty, and inequality, as well as promoting sustainable development and global governance reforms.

 

In addition to this, Brazil is spearheading the creation of the Global Alliance against Hunger and Poverty, which will be officially launched during the Leaders’ Summit. The Alliance aims to mobilise technical and financial resources to promote a range of public policies proven effective in tackling these issues.

 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, currently on a three-nation visit, will attend the summit as part of the G20 Troika. “Last year, India’s successful Presidency elevated the G20 to the people's G20 and mainstreamed the priorities of the Global South into its agenda. This year, Brazil has built upon India’s legacy. I look forward to meaningful discussions in keeping with our vision of ‘One Earth, One Family, One Future’,” he said on Saturday, ahead of his visit.

 

India remains a key player in the negotiations, as the G20 operates on a Troika system, which includes the previous president (India), the current president (Brazil), and the incoming president (South Africa). India and South Africa are supporting Brazil to ensure the continuity of policies and priorities. India is particularly keen to see critical decisions made during its presidency, such as those on digital public infrastructure (DPI) and multilateral development bank (MDB) reforms, carried forward.

 

“The New Delhi declaration will hopefully receive an added impetus. I expect further progress on MDB reform and the reform of international financial architecture,” said economist N K Singh, who co-chaired the G20 Independent Expert Group on strengthening MDBs, along with Lawrence Summers.

 

In a report last month, Singh and Summers noted that the pace and ambition of MDB reforms had not met expectations. “Major shareholders of the MDBs must shoulder the primary responsibility for this disappointing performance… Our judgement is that we are still falling well short of ‘good enough progress’,” state the report, titled An Incomplete Grade.

 

The G20 consists of 19 countries from five continents, plus the European Union and the African Union, which was granted membership during India’s presidency. Together, these members account for approximately 85 per cent of global GDP, 75 per cent of global trade, and two-thirds of the world’s population.