Why weather over the next few weeks determine India's rabi harvest health

With the sowing of rabi crops entering its last leg except for mustard and a few other crops where it is already over, all eyes are now on the final harvest, particularly in the case of wheat, chana and, of course, mustard, the three main crops that are, grown during the season.

Though, for many crops, there is still time before the full final harvest hits the markets, market players have already started speculating and predicting the harvest.

In the case of wheat, sowing of which was almost at last year’s level till last week, traders said that weather in the next few months -- till March in Punjab and Haryana and February in Madhya Pradesh -- will finally determine how the crop will shape up.

The dipping water levels in major reservoirs and the absence of any significant winter rains so far are a cause for concern for most of the rabi crops.

Data showed that during the week ended December 29, the sowing of wheat further improved and was almost at last year’s level of 32.45 million hectares.

Wheat acreage till December 29, this year was at 32.05 million hectares, slightly lower than the same period year.

The government has targeted to produce over 114 million tonnes of wheat this year and also raised the minimum support price of wheat by a steep over 7 per cent in 2023-24, the highest in the current Narendra Modi government.

The expectation is that with a bumper harvest supported by a benign MSP, the government will be able to muster sufficient quantities of wheat for the central pool to run the free foodgrains smoothly for the next few years.

Good procurement is also essential to keep a lid on prices as India’s wheat stocks in the Central pool on December 16 were estimated to be around 17.97 million tonnes, which is precariously close to the January 1 buffer and strategic requirement of 13.80 million tonnes.

The fear is that unless the Centre manages to mop up significant quantities of wheat in the 2024-25 marketing season, it will always be under pressure to manage prices.

It is here that a good wheat harvest will come to its rescue.

On the weather front, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its winter season forecast for 2023-24 for the months of December to February, has said that winter might be less severe this year with above-normal minimum and maximum temperature over most parts of the country due to the continuing impact of El Nino and other local factors.

The met department, in its forecast, also said that the maximum temperatures are also expected to be above normal during this over most parts of the country except some areas over central and northwest India where normal to below normal maximum temperatures are likely.

Central and Northwest India is the place where most of India’s wheat and, for that matter, major rabi crops are grown.

For January 2024, too, the Met said yesterday that temperatures might remain above normal for most of the days.

Though the Union agriculture ministry is confident that it could tide over the weather challenge as almost 60-80 per cent of the area sown under wheat is under heat-resistant varieties, trade and market sources said that all would depend on the final harvest.

Cold and foggy weather with slight mist and rains is considered ideal for the wheat crop in the early stages as it saves one irrigation.

Also, if temperatures rise abnormally just ahead of harvest, it might lead to shrivelling of crops, as had happened a few years back.

In the last few years, the weather impact on standing wheat crops has been very pronounced either due to untimely rains or sudden spike in temperatures, which has meant that India’s annual production has struggled to cross the 100 million tonne threshold. Though, officially, the government numbers show that production has been much higher.

Now, coming to Chana, the acreage this year so far is already 8 per cent less than last year, and most trade sources are expecting a lower crop.

Acreage is down due to abnormally dry conditions in Karnataka and Maharashtra, the two major chana-producing states in the country.

The concern over the chana crop is understandable.

Chana is the largest pulse crop grown in India, and out of the total annual pulse production of around 25-27 million tonnes, almost 44-48 per cent is chana.

Any let-up in the production of chana in a year when the overall pulses complex has been under stress from time to time could further fuel inflationary pressures.

This the government can ill-afford at a time when the country goes into polls in the next few months.

Then comes mustard, acreage till last week is almost 2 per cent more than last year. Though the area under mustard is down in Rajasthan, which is one of the major growing states, it has been adequately compensated by higher acreage in Uttar Pradesh.

Overall, mustard production is expected to be good this year, according to traders, as there is no major concern so far on crop condition. But what is of worry is the prices as free edible oil imports till the end of March 2024 and the possibility of it getting extended even further, which could have a negative impact on prices that could hurt growers.

Overall, it is the weather which will be the key determinant for rabi crops in the next few weeks.

“There could be some pressure on the inflation due to weak kharif harvest and also rabi production ahead of elections but it won’t be as bad as it was in the UPA years as the government seems to be managing well,” said S Mahendra Dev, former Director of Mumbai-based Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR).