Assembly election exit polls: Understanding history, relevance, and more

With voting in five poll-bound states slated to end on November 30, Thursday, all eyes will now turn to the exit poll predictions.

The electoral battles in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram began on November 7, with the last stage of voting taking place on November 30. The results for all states will be announced on December 3. The crucial elections, all of which were held in a single phase except Chhattisgarh, are the last before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

While the Congress seeks to retain power in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) looks to do the same in Madhya Pradesh. In Telangana, both parties have been campaigning hard to unseat the incumbent K Chandrashekar Rao-led Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) government. Meanwhile, in Mizoram, the ruling Mizo National Front (MNF) hopes to keep rivals Congress and Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) at bay.

What are exit polls?

Exit polls are conducted by researchers who ask voters how they have voted just after they leave the polling station after casting their vote. Such polls are aimed at predicting the result of an election based on the information collected from voters on election day. They are conducted by several organisations in India.

When will the exit poll results be announced?

The exit poll results of Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram will be announced on November 30, after 6:30 pm.

The Election Commission (EC) has prohibited “conducting and publishing or publicising exit polls by means of print or electronic media or dissemination in any other manner whatsoever” between 7 am on November 7 and 6.30 pm on November 30.

What is the difference between opinion poll and exit poll?

An opinion poll is a voter behaviour survey conducted in order to find out the opinion of the people, including those who may or may not vote, before voting takes place.  An exit poll is conducted right after people have voted on an election day.

When did exit polls start in India?

In India, exit polls were almost indigenously developed by the pioneering Delhi-based Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in the 1960s.

The first serious media poll surveys started surfacing in the 1980s, with psephologist Prannoy Roy partnering up with David Butler. Their studies culminated in the seminal book "The Compendium of Indian Elections" by Prannoy Roy, David Butler and Ashok Lahiri. 

Satellite television also lent exit polls blockbuster prominence, since the state-run Doordarshan's commissioning of a countrywide exit poll in 1996 to CSDS.

Why are exit polls not allowed to be telecast before polling?

Section 126A of the Representation of the People’s Act, 1951, bans exit polls from the beginning of the polls until half an hour after the final phase of voting is completed.

The section states that “no person shall conduct any exit poll and publish or publicise by means of the print or electronic media... the result of any exit poll during such a period... In case of a general election, the period may commence from the beginning of the hours fixed for the poll on the first day of poll and continue till half an hour after closing of the poll in all the states and union territories.”

Anyone who does not follow the provisions of this section is subject to imprisonment for a term of up to two years, a fine, or both.

Do exit polls predict the results correctly?

Results of elections in India can be extremely hard to predict and there have been cases where predictions have gone awry in making the tricky conversion from projected vote share to the number of seat share. In 2004, pollsters had wrongly predicted that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would win.

When did they hit and miss?

With the exception of the 1998 and 2014 general elections, at least four Lok Sabha elections have shown wide inaccuracies. Two consecutively flawed predictions — the 2004 and 2009 exit polls — have cast doubt on their accuracy.

In the 1999 elections, forced by an early collapse of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government, most polls overrated the NDA’s win. They gave the NDA 315 seats, or more, however, it actually got only 296.

The 2004 exit polls were a colossal failure. All pollsters predicted that the Congress would not fight back. While some forecast a swing in favour of the incumbent BJP, others saw only a minor dip in its tally. However, all exit polls predicted a victory for the BJP. 

In 2009, the exit polls weren’t quite spot on either. Although most predictions put the UPA ahead, they entirely overlooked the key trend- big swings in its favour. The UPA bagged 40 more seats without necessarily adding anything to its vote share.

Why are exit polls criticised?

According to critics and political parties, the agencies that conduct the exit polls could be biased in terms of the choice, words, timing of the questions, the methodology they use, and the kind of sample they draw.

The demographic behaviour of the sample group, its economic condition and several other factors in survey tabulation are also questioned.

Political parties also claim that exit polls are funded by their rivals and may not truly reflect public opinion or beliefs.

When did EC first issue guidelines on exit polls?

The Election Commission issued guidelines under Article 324 of the Constitution prohibiting newspapers and television news channels from publishing or broadcasting results of opinion and exit polls between 5 pm on February 14 and 5 pm on March 7, 1998. The first phase of the year’s general elections was scheduled for February 16, 1998, with the last on March 7.

The poll body also directed newspapers and TV channels that while carrying exit polls and opinion poll results, the media houses should also disclose the sample size of the electorate, the details of their methodology, the margin of error and the background of the polling agency which had conducted the surveys.

How were EC guidelines taken by the media?

The guidelines issued by the poll watchdog sparked outrage among Indian media outlets, who claimed the guidelines breached their fundamental right to free speech and expression.

The order was then challenged in the Supreme Court as well as the High Courts in Delhi and Rajasthan. While hearing the matter, the Supreme Court did not stay the panel’s guidelines, resulting in the ban of both opinion and exit polls for nearly a month during the Lok Sabha election in 1998, the only time when it happened.

Did the EC attempt to regulate exit polls again?

The Election Commission tried to invoke its 1998 guidelines again ahead of the Lok Sabha election in 1999. The poll body went to court after some sections of the media refused to follow its orders. The case was referred to a Constitution Bench of the Supreme Court, which expressed concerns about the constitutionality of the commission’s guidelines. The EC withdrew its plans after the bench observed that the poll body could not enforce such guidelines in the absence of statutory sanction.

The EC then approached the Union law ministry with the support of six national and 18 regional parties in 2004 as it sought an amendment to the Representation of the People Act for a ban on both exit and opinion polls during a period specified by it. Restrictions were imposed only on exit polls through the introduction of Section 126(A) in the act after the recommendation was accepted in part in February 2010.

In November 2013, the EC consulted with political parties for a restriction on opinion polls as well. Except for the BJP, all political parties supported the proposal to ban opinion polls from the date of notification of elections until the end of polling. The recommendation was then sent to the law ministry, but no action has been taken on it so far.