 "Can 'poll of polls' accurately predict election outcomes? May be not")
As voting concluded in Maharashtra and Jharkhand on Wednesday (November 20), all eyes were on exit polls, with many turning to ‘poll of polls’ to identify the front-runners. ‘Poll of polls’ can be entertaining to watch as it takes a broader look at multiple opinion or exit polls conducted by various agencies and media organisations. While theoretically ‘poll of polls’ can provide insights into election results, the practice has drawn a lot of criticism regarding its accuracy and overall purposes during election periods.
Here is a closer examination of the trend and why it may not provide the most accurate perspective on election results.
What are ‘poll of polls’?
‘Poll of polls’ looks at multiple opinion polls or exit polls conducted by different organisations. It averages or combines results to provide a more consolidated prediction of the election outcome.
This method looks at diverse polling data and attempts to understand its differences while also trying to draw an average prediction for exit polls. These polls can be presented as ‘poll of opinion polls’ or ‘poll of exit polls’.
Opinion polls are generally published before voting begins. While ‘poll of polls’ based on exit polls come after voting concludes.
Exit polls vs ‘poll of polls’: What is the difference?
Exit polls are surveys conducted among voters as they exit polling stations after casting their votes. They aim to predict the likely outcome of an election based on responses from voters about whom they voted for. Exit polls are generally based on a random sampling of voters. The methodology and sample sizes can vary from agency to agency which can lead to diverse outcomes and predictions.
Exit polls are conducted by agencies or media outlets (or both in collaboration), to give an early indication of how voters have voted and the possible winner of the election.
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‘Poll of polls’ combines data from different exit polls to observe trends and provide a broader prediction of election results.
Why are ‘poll of polls’ popular?
The ‘poll of polls’ has gained popularity for its ability to consolidate information and engage public interest during elections.
Since it provides an average of multiple polls, it reduces the influence of individual pollsters’ biases or errors. This makes it seem more reliable than any single exit poll and appeals to many as it is less confusing and provides a definite answer.
These polls also simplify the presentation of exit polls, providing a single average data, as opposed to multiple, often diverse, data. This makes information easy for the people to interpret.
These polls can also identify overarching trends, which can make it easier to predict the influence of parties or candidates in the electoral race.
Additionally, watching these polls can be entertaining during election times, as they are often accompanied by debates and discussion regarding the different exit poll data.
What makes ‘poll of polls’ unreliable?
The chief flaw ‘poll of polls’ lies in the fact that they rely on multiple opinion or exit polls, which themselves may have methodological flaws. This includes:
Sampling bias: Individual polls often fail to capture the diverse demographics of a region.
Inaccurate projections: Polls may incorrectly predict outcomes due to limited or poorly representative samples or voters may not choose to reveal their actual choice.
Over-reliance on urban areas: Rural voters, who often form a significant electorate in countries like India, are sometimes underrepresented in polls.
If the base data is biased and lacks accuracy, any study based on flawed data will only further distort public information.
If ‘Poll of polls’ focus on too many different data, or if data diverge from each other, this can lead to misleading results, as is common when finding averages in any data set.
Aside from this, ‘poll of polls’ can oversimplify data which can lead to a false sense of certainty or accuracy, leading the public and other stakeholders to assume the predictions are definitive, whereas they are only estimates. They can also overshadow the influence of independent candidates or smaller, regional parties in certain areas.
This was especially seen in recent elections in India, where exit poll data failed to convey voter sentiment and to accurately predict the influence of parties in both the Lok Sabha elections and Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana Assembly elections.
Should people watch ‘poll of polls’?
Yes, of course the public and viewers should engage with ‘poll of polls’ as they can help create discourse around politics. However, as with any data, a level of caution should be exercised.