 "'Causing major distortions, time for self-introspection': CEC on exit polls")
Raising questions over the credibility of exit polls, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar on Tuesday said, “A major distortion is being created due to exit polls and the expectations set by them.” His comments came after repeated failures of exit polls in predicting actual results.
While announcing the poll schedule for Maharashtra and Jharkhand, Kumar addressed the media, saying, “There is a need for self-introspection—what was the sample size, where was the survey conducted, how did the result come, and what is my responsibility if it did not match that result? Are there disclosures? All of these need to be examined.”
Kumar also raised questions over the results shown by electronic media during the initial hours of counting. “When counting begins, results start pouring in by 8.05-8.10 am. This is nonsense. The first counting of electronic voting machines (EVMs) begins at 8.30 am. We start posting the results at 9.30 am on the website. So, when the actual results start coming in, there is a mismatch,” he said.
He hinted at a possible linkage between initial election results shown on electronic media and an effort to validate exit polls. “Are the initial trends meant to justify the exit polls?” he asked.
Kumar warned that the mismatch between exit polls and actual results could sometimes lead to serious issues. “The gap between expectations and achievements is nothing but frustration. So, this issue needs deliberation,” he added.
Failure of exit polls
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In the recent Haryana Assembly elections, virtually all the exit polls predicted a clear majority for the Congress party, with the BJP struggling to cross even the 30-seat mark. However, the results gave the saffron party a historic third term, crossing its previous record of 47 seats (2014).
The C-Voter-India Today exit poll pegged the BJP at 20-28 seats, while Republic TV-Matrize Poll predicted 18-24 seats. People Pulse Poll anticipated 15-29 seats for the BJP, and Dainik Bhaskar also estimated 15-29 seats. Most exit polls forecast a clear-cut majority for Congress, but the actual results reflected a completely opposite outcome.
2024 General election
In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, exit polls again failed to accurately predict the outcome. News 24-Today’s Chanakya predicted 400 seats for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), India Today-Axis My India anticipated 381 seats, and News 18 predicted 364 seats for the NDA. Other exit polls such as Jan Ki Baat, India TV, and Times Now estimated 350-380 seats for the alliance.
However, the actual results were far from these predictions, with the NDA restricted to 293 seats. The BJP was unable to secure a full majority on its own, contrary to the majority of exit polls.
CEC remarks
Kumar stressed the need for serious deliberation on this issue. “There are bodies that govern this. I am sure the time has come for these associations or bodies to engage in some self-regulation,” he concluded.