Multiple poles in J&K polls: UT looks forward to representative democracy

With no local government, and with bureaucrats at the helm for the past six years, the people in the UT are looking forward to representative democracy

Regional and national parties in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) are preparing for a reprogrammed battleground marked by 10 years of there being no Assembly election, delimitation of constituencies, and the emergence of new parties and candidates, who delivered a few surprises in the recent Lok Sabha polls.

The polls will be held in three phases — on September 18 and 25, and October 1 — for the 90 Assembly seats. With no local government, and with bureaucrats at the helm for the past six years, the people in J&K are looking forward to representative democracy.

Some of the factors that will shape the next Assembly are the J&K Reorganisation Act of 2019, the Delimitation Commission Report of 2022, the J&K Reorganisation (Amendment) Act of 2023, and the Scheduled Tribes (ST) status accorded to the Paharis.

The J&K Reorganisation Act provides for carving up the state of J&K into the Union Territories of J&K (with a legislature) and Ladakh (without a legislature). It increased the seats in the J&K Legislative Assembly from 107 to 114. Since 1988, the number of seats in the J&K Assembly was 111, including 24 reserved for Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, including Gilgit and Baltistan, and four seats in Ladakh. Effectively, the Assembly had 87 elected members and two seats were reserved for women, who were nominated.

With the re-drawn boundaries and formation of new constituencies due to the 2022 delimitation exercise, the Assembly strength of J&K (Ladakh excluded) has gone up from 83 to 90. The Jammu region has seen an increase of six seats and Kashmir one. Parties in Kashmir have alleged gerrymandering to inflate the election outcomes in the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) favour because the party has a strong footing there.

Nine Assembly seats have been reserved for Scheduled Tribes (STs) and seven for Scheduled Castes (SCs). In the 2014 Assembly elections, the BJP won all the seven SC seats in the Jammu region. Since then, and especially against the backdrop of delimitation, the BJP has been banking on lower and unprivileged classes with major outreach campaigns coinciding with the inclusion of the Paharis as ST and including some other castes among the Other Backward Classes (OBCs).

“We’re keeping a close watch on the reserved Assembly segments and will try to win the maximum of them. The entry of some tribal leaders lately has been a shot in the arm,” Sofi Yousuf, vice-president of the BJP in Kashmir, told Business Standard.
 

In the recent Lok Sabha polls, the BJP and NC-Congress alliance won two seats each and one went to an independent candidate, reflecting the changing electoral dynamics and tastes after August 2019, when the status of the state altered.

“The Lok Sabha polls exposed the fault lines and gave a peek into the aspirations of the people of J&K after 2019. It’s evident that people approve of those who apparently have some hostility and differences with New Delhi,” Noor Ahmad Baba, political analyst and former professor of political science at the University of Kashmir, told Business Standard.

Except the North Kashmir seat, where former chief minister Omar Abdullah of the National Conference (NC) lost to an Independent candidate currently jailed, the NC won the Central and South Kashmir Lok Sabha seats with a significant vote share. However, the region’s second-largest party, the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), drew a blank with its president and former chief minister, Mehbooba Mufti, losing from the Anantnag-Rajouri seat.
 

“The NC, by and large, did well in the Lok Sabha elections with its significant constituency-wise vote share in Kashmir, which obviously will show up in the upcoming polls. On the flip side, the previous PDP-BJP coalition has dented the regional PDP party, and is likely to overshadow its prospects in the upcoming Assembly polls,” Baba said.

Election fervour and shifting loyalties
 

With the NC appearing to be a dominant force in the Assembly polls, the Congress leadership, its President Mallikarjun Kharge, and Rahul Gandhi, Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, were in Kashmir last week to seal an alliance with the party.

“Bigger challenges and constraints at national level necessitated this coalition. We need support to undo what was done on August 5, 2019, to J&K,” Hasnain Masoodi, former NC member of Parliament, told Business Standard.

The PDP, for now, is alone with no signs of coalition, much like the recent Lok Sabha polls. The regional party faced crippling defections after 2019, with many in the party lost. But the election season is bringing back a few and it is wooing new faces.

Parties like the JK Apni Party (JKAP), led by industrialist Syed Altaf Bukhari, Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP), helmed by former Congressman Ghulam Nabi Azad, and the Jammu Kashmir Peoples Conference (JKPC) are facing allegations of serving as the BJP’s offshoots and, in the aftermath of their Lok Sabha poll debacle, defections in those have begun.

In the meantime, the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), led by Engineer Rashid, who won the Lok Sabha polls from the Baramulla seat against Omar Abdullah, is getting revitalised and expanding from North Kashmir into other parts of J&K. “For the first time, we’ll be contesting seats across J&K. We aim to win big in a wave of change against traditional politics. Other than us, there is no alternative for the J&K people,” Prince Parvez, general secretary of the AIP, told Business Standard.

Questions, doubts loom large

In Kashmir, according to the breakup of the Lok Sabha poll results, the NC took the lead in 34 Assembly segments. the PDP in five, the Peoples’ Conference in one, and Independent Rashid in 14. But how much the metrics will translate into votes in the Assembly polls remains to be seen.

The poll manifestos of both the NC and PDP have similarities. What sets apart the PDP in a major way is its commitment to the resolution of the Kashmir issue, which in the post-2019 scenario is said to have vanished. However, Baba said big guarantees would ultimately fall prey to political bargaining. “This is what happens in politics. Politicians start with big demands to settle at fewer or lesser of them.”
 

Now a UT, the J&K owes its key powers over security, police, prosecution and higher officials to the lieutenant governor. With the stage set for J&K’s first government formation after 2019, only time can tell how the integration pans out.

The writer is a Srinagar-based independent journalist