 "BJP scores in Haryana, but Kashmir remains a puzzle. What's the catch?")
The Congress party began the day with laddoos and jalebis at its headquarters, emboldened by early trends in the 2024 Haryana Assembly elections that pointed to a possible comeback. Their joy was short-lived, as the tide swung in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is currently approaching 50 seats. Congress, which is trailing by 35 seats, is facing growing concerns about its strategy and leadership.
In what is being regarded as one of the most surprising twists in Indian political history, the BJP appears to be on track to win three consecutive elections in Haryana, also known as the 'Jatland'. This contradicts exit polls that predicted a huge victory for Congress, which was banking on popular discontent and anti-incumbency sentiment to return.
BJP's unexpected victory in Haryana despite anti-incumbency
The one question on everyone’s mind is, what worked for the saffron party? Despite facing anti-incumbency, the BJP has managed to turn the tables, solidifying its influence throughout the state. Haryana reported a voter turnout of approximately 67.90 per cent across its 90 Assembly seats, and the BJP’s strategy appears to have worked.
According to the Times of India, while Yadav votes favoured the BJP, the Congress had hoped to capitalise on a wave of Jat support. However, the BJP won major gains in traditionally Jat-dominated areas, which helped to shift the balance.
Political analyst Satish Tyagi points out Other Backward Classes (OBC) communities have drifted towards the BJP during the last decade. This has given the party a stable electoral base in rural and semi-urban areas, which has been strengthened by the BJP's outreach to non-Jat voters.
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Congress’ internal struggles raise questions
For Congress, the election results have brought difficult concerns. Was it a mistake to rely so much on Bhupinder Singh Hooda? The public rivalry between Hooda and Kumari Selja for the chief ministerial position may have contributed to Congress' poor performance. Furthermore, concerns about Hooda's dominance in ticket distribution have caused critics to accuse the party of bad candidate selection.
In retrospect, was Congress too overconfident? Many members of the party are already questioning whether complacency set in too early.
Saini factor in BJP’s Haryana success
Nayab Saini, Haryana's current Chief Minister, has also played an important part in the BJP's revival. Leading from Ladwa, Saini has shifted the scales in favour of the BJP. His selection as the state's 11th Chief Minister, after Manohar Lal Khattar, was unexpected but successful for the party.
Saini, who assumed office barely two and a half months before the elections due to the implementation of the Model Code of Conduct (MCC), has been eager to engage voters. His reign has been characterised by a bustle of activity, including Cabinet meetings and announcements of rewards for key voter groups such as the backward classes, employees, and merchants. Jobs were posted at the end of his brief reign, indicating his emphasis on governance and voter outreach.
Saini's efforts, particularly in delivering assistance to the backward classes, have contributed to strengthen the non-Jat vote. This tactic, which sought to split the Jat vote between the Congress, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), and the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), appears to have worked in the BJP's favour.
However, Saini's overt emphasis on the backward population has led to the impression that he primarily represents this minority rather than all of Haryana. Despite this, his popularity with non-Jat voters has been critical to the BJP's success.
BJP’s ‘Naya Kashmir’ fails to gain electoral traction
While the BJP appears to be on track for victory in Haryana, its plans in Kashmir have run into roadblocks. The party's goal of 'Naya Kashmir' has yet to materialise into election victories in the region, with supporters disappointed with the implementation of Article 370's repeal.
In August 2019, the Centre abolished Article 370, ending Jammu and Kashmir's special status and dividing the area into two Union Territories. This action was met with months of restrictions, causing enormous frustration among people. As conditions improved, the Narendra Modi government unveiled its 'Naya Kashmir' agenda, promising development, jobs, and security.
However, many Kashmiris continue to feel profoundly alienated. While the government has taken strong measures to combat terrorism, separatism, and stone-pelting, citizens claim that their voices are being muted. The sense of loss connected with the revocation of special status remains, with many worrying that it is being used to suppress dissent. The resentment has also hampered the BJP's efforts to build a solid electoral base in the Valley.