Haryana elections: Why early counting trends may not reflect real picture?

The early trends showed that in Haryana, the Congress was leading in 60 of the 90 seats. In Jammu-Kashmir, the Congress and the National Conference alliance was leading on at least 40 of the 90 seats

Vote counting for the Haryana and the Jammu-Kashmir Assembly is underway, with early trends projecting a strong lead for the Congress in Haryana and an edge for the Congress-National Conference alliance in J-K. At 8 am on Tuesday, the election officials began counting the postal ballots, which will be followed by counting of electronic voting machines.

During the Lok Sabha elections in June, the Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar had explained that after half-an-hour of the start of the postal ballot count, the counting of votes in the EVMs will begin.

“Rules clearly state (Rule 54A) that postal ballot count will start first. In all centres in the country, it will start first, no doubt about it. After half-an-hour we start the EVM count. So, there are three counts that are happening simultaneously – it happened in the 2019 elections, it happened in all the assembly polls held thereafter. It happened yesterday also in the case of Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim assembly (vote count). We can’t change anything mid-course. Why can’t we change, because it is compliant with the rules,” he said.

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What are postal ballots?

Postal ballots are a means of casting votes for the voters, who are not available in their constituencies at all times. In such cases, the postal ballots system is used where distribution of ballot papers and returning of the marked ballot is done by post instead of voters voting in person at the polling station. It can be understood as a form of early or remote voting technique. This service is available to select categories of voters, including voters on election duties and senior citizens among others.

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What does this mean for election trends?

The early counting trends in elections are based on postal ballots. This means that the final results could turn out to be very different from the initial trends.

The early trends on Tuesday showed that in Haryana, the Congress was leading on 60 of the 90 constituencies. In Jammu-Kashmir, the Congress and the National Conference alliance was leading on at least 40 of the 90 seats.