 "J&K poll results: What's at stake for PM Modi, Rahul, Abdullahs & Muftis")
Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections 2024 took center stage today with early trends indicating a majority win for the National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance. The election, held between September 18 and October 1, 2024, also marks a crucial moment for both national and regional political forces. This is the first election after J&K’s reorganisation in 2019, making it a defining political event for the region and the country.
According to exit polls, the NC-Congress combine was already leading the race, with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) positioned to play a decisive role in government formation. As the counting continues, political analysts are dissecting the possible ramifications for key players such as Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, NC’s Omar Abdullah, and PDP’s Iltija Mufti.
PM Modi and the BJP’s future in J&K
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi face a significant political challenge in Jammu and Kashmir. The abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, which removed the region’s special status, has been a cornerstone of the BJP’s national agenda. The elections are widely seen as a referendum on the success of this policy, which was framed as a move towards greater national integration and security. A strong performance by the BJP would validate the Prime Minister’s claims that the abrogation has brought about development and peace in the region.
However, if the BJP performs poorly, it could embolden critics, both domestically and across the border, who argue that the decision has failed to deliver tangible benefits for the people of J&K. The election outcome could also have ripple effects ahead of the general elections, influencing the BJP’s broader national narrative on issues like regional autonomy and governance.
Rahul Gandhi’s test: Can Congress regain lost ground?
For Congress and Rahul Gandhi, these elections hold high stakes. Congress has long maintained a foothold in J&K but has lost ground in recent years. Gandhi has been a vocal opponent of the abrogation of Article 370, aligning with local sentiments that are wary of the central government’s sweeping move.
A strong result for Congress would not only boost Gandhi’s position in the region but also bolster his leadership credentials ahead of the 2024 general elections. It would offer a much-needed victory for a party that has struggled to maintain relevance at the national level. A poor showing, however, could raise internal party concerns about Gandhi's ability to steer Congress back to political prominence, particularly in regions as politically sensitive as J&K.
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The Abdullah legacy and NC’s dominance
For the National Conference (NC), led by the Abdullah family, these elections are pivotal in determining whether their regional dominance remains intact. With Farooq Abdullah and his son Omar Abdullah at the helm, the NC has been a formidable force in J&K politics for decades. Both leaders have been vocal critics of the BJP’s stance on Article 370 and have consistently called for the restoration of J&K’s statehood.
The NC-Congress alliance was formed with the aim of presenting a united front against the BJP. If the early trends hold, and NC manages to perform well, it would reaffirm the Abdullah family’s stature as a major stakeholder in J&K’s political future. Omar Abdullah is likely eyeing the chief ministerial post, and a strong showing could cement his return to the region’s top political office.
However, any significant decline in the NC’s performance could indicate a shift in public sentiment away from the region’s traditional political powerhouses, suggesting that voters are seeking new leadership and solutions.
PDP and the Mufti family: A moment of reckoning
The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), led by Mehbooba Mufti, and now joined by her daughter Iltija Mufti, also faces a decisive political test. The PDP, once an ally of the BJP in the state government, has since distanced itself from the national party and vocally opposed the abrogation of Article 370. However, the party’s popularity has been on the decline since the dissolution of the BJP-PDP coalition government in 2018.
Iltija Mufti, making her electoral debut from the family-stronghold in Bijbehara, South Kashmir, has inherited the responsibility of keeping the Mufti legacy alive. A positive result would rejuvenate the party’s influence, positioning the Muftis as key players in the region’s future. Conversely, a poor performance could signal the end of the PDP’s dominance, further weakening their grip on J&K politics.