Come May 13, will BJP script history in 2023 Karnataka Assembly elections?

The BJP, which is vying for overall political dominance, has set a target of winning at least 150 seats in the 2023 Karnataka Assembly elections

With Karnataka elections just two days away, it remains to be seen whether the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will defy a four-decade-old trend and script history, or if the Congress will outperform its saffron rival to raise its stakes as a challenger ahead of the 2024 parliamentary polls.

No political party has won a successive mandate in the state since 1985 and the BJP is eager to rewrite this bit of history and retain its southern citadel on May 13.

The Congress is keen to wrest power in order to give the party much-needed elbow room to position itself as the main Opposition player in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Like the last two decades, Karnataka will face a three-cornered contest in the May 10 elections, with a direct fight among the Congress, BJP and JD(S) on the cards in most segments.

The BJP, which is vying for overall political dominance, has set a target of winning at least 150 seats in the polls. It wants to avoid a 2018-like situation, when it had initially lost out on forming government despite emerging as the single-largest party, and had to depend on defections of Congress and JD(S) MLAs to establish its administration later.

It is also making every effort to make inroads into the Old Mysuru region, where the party has traditionally been weak. The region has 89 seats (including 28 in Bengaluru), and according to leaders, the party fell short of majority (110 in 2008 and 104 in 2018) due to its inability to win as many seats from this region.

Meanwhile, the party has announced 222 candidates for the 224-member Karnataka Assembly elections. The party needs to cross the halfway mark of 113 in order to form a government in the coastal state.

On April 18, the party also released a list of 40 star campaigners for the upcoming elections.
 

BJP's manifesto

In its manifesto released on May 1, the BJP said it will implement the Uniform Civil Code (UCC), the National Register of Citizens (NRC) if it retains power in the coastal state.

The state government, the BJP’s manifesto said, will set up a high-level committee and roll out the UCC according to the committee's recommendations.

The party has also promised half a litre of Nandini milk every day and five kg of millets (Shri Anna) through monthly ration kits to low-income families. These families will also get three free cooking gas cylinders during Yugadi, Ganesh Chaturthi, and Diwali.

The BJP government will set up Atal Aahara Kendra, or Atal food joints, in each municipal ward in the state, offering healthy food at affordable rates.

Every municipal ward will also have one Namma Clinic (like Mohalla clinic), complete with diagnostic facilities. The party has also promised free annual health check-ups for senior citizens. In addition, it has promised to distribute one million housing sites to the homeless.

The government will roll out a social justice fund, to be named after Onake Obavva, the brave woman of Chitradurga who fought Hyder Ali, the ruler of Mysore kingdom. The fund will chip in a matching deposit of up to Rs 10,000 on five-year fixed deposits made by women from the SC/ST households.

The government will tie up with eminent individuals and institutions for upgrading government schools.

The party also pledged to spend Rs 1,500 crore on developing the Kalyana, Banavasi, Parashurama and Kaveri circuits and the Ganagapura corridor and make the state more attractive for tourism.

The party regime, if re-elected, will constitute a Karnataka Residents’ Welfare Consultative Committee to reform the Karnataka Apartment Ownership Act, 1972 to modernise the grievance redress mechanism.

SWOT analysis of BJP in Karnataka

Strengths

Except in the Old Mysuru region, the BJP emerged as the single-largest party in the state's last three Assembly elections.

The BJP intends to maximise support based on PM Modi's popularity and the party significantly improved its performance in south Karnataka in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, and it hopes to maintain that in the assembly elections as well.

Weaknesses

For the first time, the BJP is heading into the Karnataka Assembly elections without a chief ministerial face, which could destabilise support.

There is also the anti-incumbency factor working against the BJP.

Ex-deputy Chief Minister Laxman Savadi's resignation will hurt the BJP.

Opportunities

There is also an opportunity to capitalise on the party's growing support base in the Old Mysuru region, where the Congress and the JD(S) have historically been strong.

Furthermore, the ruling party has increased quotas in education and government jobs for Vokkaligas, Lingayats, and SC/ST communities, allowing it to broaden its support across caste groups.

To create an emotional connection with right-wing supporters, the BJP has also run a campaign on historical icons and religious figures, erecting statues across the state.

Threats

The Congress's emphasis during campaigns on corruption charges against the BJP government may also pose a threat.

Minorities could also drift away from the party after the OBC quota was scrapped for them.

History of BJP in Karnataka: A timeline

BJP opens account in 1982

The BJP, which is still in its early stages, ran for 110 seats and won 18 of them in the 224-member Karnataka Assembly. It garnered 7.93 per cent of the total votes cast.

BJP loses in 1985

In 1985, the BJP suffered a major defeat. Its performance was almost abysmal. The party won only two seats, and its vote share fell to 3.74 per cent.

The Janata Party won the election with 139 seats and 43.89 per cent of the vote. The Congress slipped to second place in terms of both seats won (66 per cent) and vote share (41.10 per cent).

A marginal player in 1989

Even in the 1989 Karnataka Assembly election, the BJP's performance was marginal. It won four seats and 3.96 per cent of the votes cast. The Congress came to power after defeating the Janata Dal. It won 178 seats, getting 43.76 per cent of the votes.

BJP' second break in 1995

BJP won 40 seats, vaulting the Congress to third place for the first time. It also broke the 10 per cent vote share barrier for the first time, receiving 16.99 per cent of the votes. The Janata Dal, with 115 seats and 33.54 per cent of the votes, formed the government in Karnataka.

Third break in 1999

As part of the NDA, the BJP contested the Karnataka Assembly election in 1999 with the JD (U). While the BJP won 44 seats and received 20.69 per cent of the vote, it was the first time it received more than 20 per cent of the vote.

The JD(U) won 18 seats and finished third, while the Janata Dal (Secular), led by Deve Gowda, won only 10 seats. The Congress won 132 seats and formed the government.

BJP emerges as the single-largest party in 2004

The BJP won 79 seats in the 2004 Karnataka Assembly election, becoming the single-largest party. However, it could not form a government due to insufficient numbers.

The Congress, with 65 members, and the JD(S), with 58 members, formed a coalition government led by Congress chief minister Dharam Singh.

JD(S) withdrew its support for the government in early 2006 and formed an alliance with the BJP. HD Kumaraswamy of the JD(S) succeeded Deve Gowda as chief minister.

According to the agreement, Kumaraswamy would be the CM for the first 20 months, followed by BS Yeddyurappa of the BJP for the remaining 20 months.

However, the BJP-JD(S) alliance fell apart in October 2007 when Kumaraswamy broke the agreement and refused to allow Yeddyurappa to become chief minister.

President's Rule was imposed, and elections were held.

No ally in the southern state in 2008

After taking power for the first time in Karnataka in 2008, the BJP's slow and steady march came to an end. It won 110 seats, falling short by only three MLAs. It did, however, form a government with the support of six independents.

This was also the first time the BJP came to power without forming an alliance with any other party in any southern state.

Yeddyurappa was sworn in as Karnataka's chief minister. However, he was forced to resign in 2011 after the Karnataka Lokayukta indicted him in an illegal iron ore export scam.

Yeddyurappa was replaced as chief minister by DV Sadananda Gowda. He, too, resigned in 2012 and was succeeded by Jagadish Shettar until the 2013 Assembly election.

Abysmal performance in 2013

BJP lost 72 seats as compared with the 1998 Assembly election to settle at 40. The party ran for 222 of the 224 seats, garnering 17.86 per cent of the vote.

With 121 seats, the Congress won a clear majority. Siddaramaiah was sworn in as Karnataka's new chief minister.

Tussle between the BJP and Congress in 2018

The BJP emerged as the single-largest party, with 104 seats. Congress won 78 seats, and the JDS won 37 seats. JDS agreed to support the Congress party in forming a coalition government, with HD Kumaraswamy of the JDS being sworn in as the chief minister.

However, the Congress-JD(S) coalition government lasted 14 months before 16 of their legislators resigned and two independent MLAs switched their support to the BJP, reducing the house majority to 105. With the ruling coalition left with the support of 101 MLAs and the opposition BJP with 107, Kumarasamy lost the trust vote and resigned. BS Yediyurappa took oath as the chief minister of Karnataka on July 26, 2019.

Almost two years later, Basavaraj Bommai took over as the new chief minister of Karnataka.

The outgoing chief minister, Yediyurappa, clarified that he was not pressured into resigning and that he made the decision so that someone else could take over after the completion of two years of his government.

Full list of BJP candidates and their constituencies

Shiggaon – Basavaraj Bommai

Nippani – Shashikala Annasaheb Jolle

Chikkodi – Sadalga – Ramesh Katti

Athani – Mahesh Kumathalli

Kagwad – Shrimant Balasaheb Patil

Kudachi (SC) – P Rajeev

Raybag (SC) – Duryodhan Mahalingappa Aihole

Hukkeri – Nikhil Katti

Arabhavi – Balachandra Jarakiholi

Gokak – Ramesh Jarakiholi

Yemkanmardi (ST) – Basavaraj Hundri

Belgaum Uttar – Dr Ravi Patil

Belgaum Dakshin – Abhay Patil

Belgaum Rural – Nagesh Mannolkar

Khanapur – Vittal Halagekar

Kittur – Mahantesh Doddagoudar

Bailhongal – Jagdish Channappa Metgud

Saundatti Yellamma – Ratna Vishwanath Mamani

Ramdurg – Chikka Revanna

Mudhol (SC) – Govind Karjol

Terdal – Siddu Savadi

Jamkhandi – Jagadish Gudagunti

Bilgi – Murugesh Rudrappa Nirani

Badami – Shantha Gowda Patil

Bagalkot – Veerabhadrayya Charantimath

Hungund – Doddanagouda G Patil

Muddebihal – AS Patil Nadahalli

Babaleshwar – Vijugouda S Patil

Bijapur City – BR Patil (Yatnal)

Sindgi – Ramesh Bhusanur

Afzalpur – Malikaiah Guttedar

Jewargi – Shivanagoudapatil Raddevadagi

Shorapur (ST) – Narasimha Nayak (Rajugouda)

Shahapur – Ameenreddy Yalagi

Yadgir – Venkatareddy Mudnal

Chittapur (SC) – Manikanta Rathod

Chincholi (SC) – Dr Avinash Jadhav

Gulbarga Rural (SC) – Basavaraj Mattimod

Gulbarga Dakshin – Dattatraya Patil Revoor

Gulbarga Uttar – Chandrakant Patil

Aland – Subhash Guttedar

Basavakalyan – Sharanu Salagar

Humnabad – Siddu Patil

Bidar South – Dr Shailendra Beldale

Aurad (SC) – Prabhu Chavan

Raichur Rural (ST) – Tipparaju Havaldar

Raichur – Dr Shivaraj Patil

Devedurga (ST) – K Shivanagouda Nayak

Lingsugur (SC) – Manappa D Vajjal

Sindhanur – K Kariyappa

Maski (ST) – Pratapgouda Patil

Kushtagi – Doddanagouda Patil

Kanakagiri (SC) – Basavaraj Dadesaguru

Yelburga – Halappa Basappa Achar

Shirahatti (SC) – Dr Chandru Lamani

Gadag – Anil Menasinakai

Nargund – CC Patil

Navalgund – Shankar Patil Munenakoppa

Kundgol – MR Patil

Dharwad – Amrut Ayyappa Desai

Hubli-Dharwad-East (SC) – Arvind Bellad

Hubli-Dharwad-West – Dr Kranti Kiran

Haliyal – Sunil Hegde

Karwar – Rupali Santosh Nayak

Kumta – Dinakar Shetty

Bhatkal – Sunil Baliya Nayak

Sirsi – Vishweshwar Hegde Kageri

Yellapur – Shivaram Hebbar

Byadgi – Virupakshappa Ballari

Hirekerur – BC Patil

Ranibennur – Arun Kumar Pujar

Hadagalli (SC) – Krishna Naik

Vijayanagara – Siddharth Singh

Kampli (ST) – TH Suresh Babu

Siruguppa (ST) – MS Somalingappa

Bellary (ST) – B Sriramulu

Bellary City – Gali Somashekhara Reddy

Sandur (ST) – Shilpa Raghavendra

Kudligi (ST) – Lokesh V Nayaka

Molakalmuru (ST) – S Thippeswamy

Challakere (ST) – Anilkumar

Chitradurga – GH Thippareddy

Hiriyur – K Poornima Srinivas

Hosadurga – S Lingamurthy

Holalkere (SC) – M Chandrappa

Jagalur (ST) – SV Ramachandra

Harihar – BP Harish

Honnali – MP Renukacharya

Shimoga Rural (SC) – Ashok Nayak

Bhadravati – Mangoti Rudresh

Tirthahalli – Araga Jnanendra

Shikaripur – BY Vijayendra

Sorab – Kumar Bangarappa

Sagar – Haratalu H Halappa

Kundapura – Kiran Kumar Kodgi

Udupi – Yashpal Suvarna

Kapu – Gurme Suresh Shetty

Karkal – V Sunil Kumar

Sringeri – DN Jeevaraj

Chikmagalur – CT Ravi

Tarikere – DS Suresh

Kadur – KS Prakash

Chikkanayakanahalli – JC Madhuswamy

Tiptur – BC Nagesh

Turuvekere – Masala Jayaram

Kunigal – D Krishna Kumar

Tumkur City – GB Jyothi Ganesh

Tumkur Rural – B Suresh Gowda

Koratagere (SC) – Anil Kumar, Retd IAS

Sira – Dr Rajesh Gowda

Pavagada (SC) – Krishna Nayak

Madhugiri – LC Nagaraj

Gauribidanur – Dr Shashidhar

Bagepalli – C Muniraju

Chikkaballapur – Dr K Sudhakar

Chintamani – Venu Gopal

Srinivaspur – Gunjuru Srinivas Reddy

Mulbagal (SC) – Shigehalli Sundar

Bangarapet (SC) – M Narayanswamy

Kolar – Varthur Prakash

Malur – KS Manjunath Gowda

Yelahanka – SR Vishwanath

KR Pura – BA Basavaraj

Byatarayanapura – Thammesh Gowda

Yeshvanthapura – ST Somashekar

Rajarajeshwarinagar – Munirathna Naidu

Dasarahalli – S Muniraju

Mahalakshmi Layout – K Gopalaiah

Malleshwaram – CN Ashwathnarayana

Pulakeshinagar (SC) – Murali

Sarvagnanagar – Padmanabha Reddy

CV Raman Nagar (SC) – S Raghu

Shivajinagar – N Chandra

Shanti Nagar – Shiva Kumar

Gandhi Nagar – AR Sapthagiri Gowda

Rajaji Nagar – S Suresh Kumar

Vijay Nagar – H Raveendra

Chamrajpet – Bhaskar Rao, IPS

Chickpet – Uday Garudachar

Basavanagudi – Ravisubramanya

Padmanaba Nagar – R Ashoka

BTM Layout – Sridhar Reddy

Jayanagar – CK Ramamurthy Shri Sathish Reddy

Bommanahalli – Sathish Reddy

Bangalore South – M Krishnappa

Anekal (SC) – Hullalli Srinivas

Hosakote – MTB Nagraj

Devanahalli (SC) – Pilla Munishamappa

Doddaballapur – Dhiraj Muniraju

Nelamangala (SC) – Sapthagiri Naik

Magadi – Prasad Gowda

Ramanagaram – Goutham Gowda

Kanakapura – R Ashok

Channapatna – CP Yogeshwar

Malavalli (SC) – Muniraju

Maddur – SP Swamy

Melukote – Dr Indresh Kumar

Mandya – Ashok Jayaram

Shrirangapattana – Indavalu Sachidananda

Nagamangala – Sudha Shivaram

Krishnarajpet – Dr KC Narayanagowda

Belur – Hullalli K Suresh

Hassan – J Preetham Gowda

Holenarasipur – Devaraje Gowda

Arkalgud – Yoga Ramesh

Sakleshpur (SC) – Cement Manju

Belthangady – Harish Poonja

Moodabidri – Umanath Kotian

Mangalore City North – Y Bharat Shetty

Mangalore City South – Vedavyas Kamath

Mangalore – Sathish Kumpala

Bantval – Rajesh Naik

Puttur – Asha Thimmappa

Sullia (SC) – Bhagirathi Murulya

Madikeri – M P Appachu Ranjan

Virajpet – K G Bopaiah

Piriyapatna – CH Vijayashankar

Krishnarajanagara – Venkatesh Hosalli

Hunsur – Devarahalli Somashekhar

Nanjangud (SC) – B Harshavardhan

Chamundeshwari – Kaveesh Gowda

Chamaraja – L Nagendra

Narasimharaja – Sandesh Swami

Varuna – V Somanna

T Narasipur (SC) – Dr Revanna

Hanur – Dr Preetham Nagappa

Kollegal (SC) – N Mahesh

Chamarajanagar – V Somanna

Gundlupet – CS Niranjan Kumar

Devar Hippargi – Somanagouda Patil (Sasanur)

Basavana Bagevadi – SK Bellubbi

Indi – Kasagouda Biradar

Gurmitkal – Kum Lalitha Anapur

Bidar – Eshwar Singh Thakur

Bhalki – Prakash Khandre

Gangawati – Paranna Munavalli

Kalghatgi – Nagaraj Chabbi

Hangal – Shivaraj Sajjanar

Haveri (SC) – Gavisiddappa Dyamannavar

Harapanahalli – Karunakara Reddy

Davanagere North – Lokikere Nagaraj

Davanagere South – Ajay Kumar

Mayakonda (SC) – Basavaraja Naik

Channagiri – Shiv Kumar

Byndoor – Gururaj Gantihole

Mudigere (SC) – Deepak Doddalah

Gubbi – SD Dileep Kumar

Sidlaghatta – Ramachandra Gowda

Kolar Gold Field (SC) – Ashwini Sampangi

Shravanabelagola- Chidananda

Arsikere – GV Basavaraju

Heggadadevankote (ST) – Krishna Naik

Nagthan (SC) – Sanjeev Aihole

Sedam – Rajkumar Patil

Koppal – Manjula Amaresh

Ron – Kalakappa Bandi

Hubli-Dharwad-Central – Mahesh Tenginakai

Hagaribommanahalli (SC) – B Ramanna

Hebbal – Katta Jagadish

Govindraj Nagar – Umesh Shetty

Mahadevapura (SC) – Manjula Aravind Limbavali

Krishnaraja – Srivatsa