 "Karnataka elections 2023: Decoding the state's political landscape")
With campaigning for the May 10 Assembly elections in Karnataka ending on Monday evening, some trends have become apparent. This election is being fought not just on the performance of the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government but also on community ties and the allegiances of various castes.
Karnataka has not seen an incumbent government return to power since 1985 when the Janata Party won a decisive mandate after calling for midterm elections. However, though the previous Congress government failed to garner a majority of seats, it did increase its vote share in the 2018 elections.
A fractured map
The complexity of Karnataka's election arises from the fact that the state continues to be divided along regional lines. Karnataka was created by fusing regions from four distinct administrative entities — the northwestern part from Bombay presidency, called Kittur or Bombay Karnataka; the northeastern districts that were part of the erstwhile Hyderabad princely state of the Nizam, called Kalyana or Hyderabad Karnataka; the coast and some eastern provinces from Madras presidency; and, the landlocked southern erstwhile Mysuru princely state.
An indication of the divisions among the competing interests in the state is, perhaps, the fact that since Independence, it has not had a single chief minister who has completed two full terms in office.
In terms of seats, the Kittur Karnataka region accounts for 50, the Kalyana Karnataka region for 40, the coastal region for 19, central Karnataka for 26, Old Mysuru for 61, and Bengaluru city has 28 seats.
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Question of numbers
Numbers on castes have been deeply contested since Independence, but state governments over the years have attempted to estimate these through multiple committees.
What is not contested is the proportion of the Scheduled Castes, which is 17 per cent; the Scheduled Tribes, seven per cent; and Muslims, at 12 per cent, according to the 2011 Census.
The numbers of other castes have been estimated and contested over time. There are at least four reports that estimate the numbers of these castes of Hindus. These have estimated the population share of Lingayats at about 15 per cent, the Vokkaligas at 12 per cent, and the Other Backward Classes at 32 per cent.
However, those reports, by the state Backward Classes Commission, were estimations based on the 1931 Census, which was the last one to capture data on caste.
The state did conduct a caste census in 2015, but the report was never officially released. There was a leak that was never verified, providing a different picture of caste composition. It projected a much lower proportion for Lingayats at 10 per cent and Vokkaligas at 8 per cent.
The issues in Karnataka Assembly Elections 2023
This election has been fought along two axes: One is the performance of the incumbent BJP government, which has been accused of being corrupt by the Opposition parties, Congress and Janata Dal (Secular). Two, as in Karnataka, it is also being fought on community lines, especially those of caste.
The BJP has attempted to increase its ideological pitch with a hard Hindutva stance in this election. Towards this end, it has fielded many new candidates, having dropped 23 sitting MLAs, many of whom had helped the party rise to power.
Most prominent among the leaders phased out is Lingayat leader and former chief minister BS Yediyurappa, who was asked to vacate the top post in favour of Basavaraj Bommai, who is also a Lingayat. Yediyurappa has announced his retirement from electoral politics, and his younger son Vijayendra is the BJP candidate from his constituency of Shikaripura in the hilly Shivamogga district.
Another prominent face, former chief minister Jagadish Shettar, was also sought to be eased out by the party's central leadership. But that move came up against resistance, with Shettar, also a Lingayat, opting to switch loyalties and contest the elections on a Congress symbol.
Apart from that, the party has also tweaked reservations in the state to woo the dominant communities and the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes. Just ahead of the elections, it scrapped the 4 per cent OBC reservation quota for minorities and redistributed that to the Lingayats and Vokkaligas, who will be eligible to avail of 7 per cent and 6 per cent reservation, respectively. The government raised the quota for the SCs and STs to 17 per cent and 7 per cent, respectively. However, the state has decided to defer the decision to reallocate the minority quota after it was challenged in the Supreme Court. For the SC and ST quotas it has not received the Centre's nod, as implementing the change would push the overall reservation share beyond the 50 per cent ceiling.
The Congress has cornered the government over allegations of corruption, most notably with its PayCM campaign. It has also accused the BJP of having side-lined Lingayat leaders and has attempted to woo the community back to its fold to recapture its pre-1994 dominance in the state. It has also threatened to ban the Bajrang Dal, affiliated to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, in a bid to ensure peace in the state.
Besides, the Congress has provided five big assurances. These are: Rs 2,000 monthly assistance to be paid to every housewife, 10 kg foodgrain per month to every member in a below poverty line family, Rs 3,000 per month to all unemployed graduates and Rs 1,500 to all unemployed diploma holders, free travel for women in state transport buses, and 200 units of free power every month to BPL households.
Meanwhile, the JD(S) has pitched this as a battle for survival and has called on the people of the state to follow in the footsteps of neighbouring Tamil Nadu and back the regional party.