 "'Abki baar 400 paar' may remain a mirage for BJP, suggest 2024 exit polls")
In what could mark a historic milestone, Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears poised for a remarkable third term, as suggested by the latest exit polls following the conclusion of the seventh and final phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. However, none of these projections have yet placed the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) at its envisioned tally of 400 out of 543 Lok Sabha seats. Despite variations in numerical estimates, prominent exit polls indicate a significant lead for the NDA over the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc.
An aggregate of seven exit polls suggests that the NDA is poised to secure 361 seats, while the INDIA bloc is projected to obtain 145 seats. Within this, the BJP is anticipated to clinch 311 seats, whereas the Congress is expected to secure 63 seats, marking a notable increase from the 52 seats it secured in the previous general election.
The highest forecast for the NDA, ranging between 371-401 seats, originates from the exit poll conducted by India TV-CNX. Conversely, it anticipates the Opposition bloc to secure 109-139 seats. Following closely, Jan ki Baat predicts the NDA to secure 362-392 seats and the INDIA bloc to secure 141-161 seats.
On the contrary, the lowest score for the NDA, spanning 281-350 seats, is presented by Dainik Bhaskar, with a corresponding higher projection for the INDIA bloc, ranging between 145-201 seats.
The highest forecast for the NDA, ranging between 371-401 seats, originates from the exit poll conducted by India TV-CNX. Conversely, it anticipates the Opposition bloc to secure 109-139 seats. Following closely, Jan ki Baat predicts the NDA to secure 362-392 seats and the INDIA bloc to secure 141-161 seats.
On the contrary, the lowest score for the NDA, spanning 281-350 seats, is presented by Dainik Bhaskar, with a corresponding higher projection for the INDIA bloc, ranging between 145-201 seats.
It is crucial to note that exit polls may not always accurately predict election outcomes.
All exit polls, though, are unanimous about NDA's improved performance in the southern regions and in West Bengal.
In Andhra Pradesh, projections suggest that the alliance with Chandrababu Naidu has yielded dividends, with the NDA expected to secure 18 of the state's 25 seats.
Likewise, Karnataka is poised to heavily favour the BJP, notwithstanding its historical inclination towards the Congress at the state level. In Telangana, the Congress might fail to leverage its victory in the Assembly polls and the decline of K Chandrasekhar Rao's Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), as indicated by exit polls. The BJP is anticipated to clinch over half of the state's 17 seats.
Even in Tamil Nadu, the BJP is anticipated to make inroads, securing at least two seats, while in Kerala, exit polls predict the party to secure one seat.
In Bengal, the BJP is projected to push up its 2019 tally of 18 seats to 22, surpassing the dominant Trinamool Congress (TMC) for the first time. Mamata Banerjee's party is anticipated to secure only 19 of the state's 42 Lok Sabha seats.
In neighbouring Odisha, the BJP is expected to perform even better, securing 15 of the state's 21 seats and marginalising Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal (BJD), which was once the undisputed choice of the populace.
The BJP is also anticipated to maintain its stronghold in states like Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Assam, and the national capital.
All exit polls, though, are unanimous about NDA's improved performance in the southern regions and in West Bengal.
In Andhra Pradesh, projections suggest that the alliance with Chandrababu Naidu has yielded dividends, with the NDA expected to secure 18 of the state's 25 seats.
Likewise, Karnataka is poised to heavily favour the BJP, notwithstanding its historical inclination towards the Congress at the state level. In Telangana, the Congress might fail to leverage its victory in the Assembly polls and the decline of K Chandrasekhar Rao's Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), as indicated by exit polls. The BJP is anticipated to clinch over half of the state's 17 seats.
Even in Tamil Nadu, the BJP is anticipated to make inroads, securing at least two seats, while in Kerala, exit polls predict the party to secure one seat.
In Bengal, the BJP is projected to push up its 2019 tally of 18 seats to 22, surpassing the dominant Trinamool Congress (TMC) for the first time. Mamata Banerjee's party is anticipated to secure only 19 of the state's 42 Lok Sabha seats.
In neighbouring Odisha, the BJP is expected to perform even better, securing 15 of the state's 21 seats and marginalising Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal (BJD), which was once the undisputed choice of the populace.
The BJP is also anticipated to maintain its stronghold in states like Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Assam, and the national capital.
Exit polls predict that Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party, along with its ally Congress, may once again fail to secure a single seat in Delhi. However, the two parties are expected to perform well in Punjab, where they engaged in a friendly contest. Of the state's 13 seats, the Congress is expected to secure 5, and AAP, 4.
Some alterations are also expected in Bihar, where the NDA had secured 39 of its 40 seats in the previous election. The Opposition alliance, led by Tejashwi Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), is projected to secure 7 seats. Additionally, the Opposition could gain three seats out of 10 in Haryana and a few in Rajasthan, where they had drawn a blank in 2019.
In Maharashtra, a state that proved one of the hardest to read, exit polls indicate that the Opposition could secure more than one-third of the seats.
Some alterations are also expected in Bihar, where the NDA had secured 39 of its 40 seats in the previous election. The Opposition alliance, led by Tejashwi Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), is projected to secure 7 seats. Additionally, the Opposition could gain three seats out of 10 in Haryana and a few in Rajasthan, where they had drawn a blank in 2019.
In Maharashtra, a state that proved one of the hardest to read, exit polls indicate that the Opposition could secure more than one-third of the seats.
Exit polls prediction for BJP in 2019 and its accuracy:
1. India Today-Axis My India: Predicted 339-365 seats for NDA and 77-108 for UPA
2. News24-Today’s Chanakya: Estimated 350 seats for NDA and around 95 for UPA
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3. News18-IPSOS: Projected 336 seats for NDA, 82 for UPA, and 124 for other parties
4. Times Now-VMR: Predicted around 306 seats for NDA and 132 for UPA
5. India TV-CNX: Estimated 300 seats for NDA and 120 for UPA
6. CVoter: Predicted 287 seats for NDA, 128 for UPA, and the rest for other parties
2019 Lok Sabha election results
NDA won 353 seats, UPA secured 91 seats. The closest predictions came from India Today-Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya, followed by Times Now-VMR.
Why ‘Abki baar 400 paar’
Prime Minister Narendra Modi explained the rationale behind the ambitious electoral goals of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in 2024. Speaking on the genesis of the ‘Abki baar 400 paar’ slogan, he attributed its emergence to a genuine sentiment resonating among the populace.
“From 2019 to 2024, we had 400 seats with the support of our allies. For example, if a child in your family scored 90 marks, and his competitors only got around 40 marks, you will always encourage your kid to achieve 95 marks next time. In the same way, we have set our 400 seats target,” PM Modi said in an interview with India TV.
Furthermore, the Prime Minister intricately linked the BJP’s target of 370 seats to the pivotal decision of revoking Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir. He mentioned that the idea came from a creative individual from Kashmir and that the number 370 symbolises national unity.
“The BJP should win 370 seats to leave an indelible memory in the minds of people so that they understand the significance of the country's unity,” said PM Modi.
BJP and its popular slogans
In the era of Narendra Modi’s leadership, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has consistently harnessed the potency of impactful slogans. This electoral season, the resonating battle cry is ‘Ab Ki Baar 400 Paar’, bolstered by the resounding assurance of ‘Modi Ki Guarantee’.
Since 2014, when it swept into power with the rallying cry ‘Ab Ki Baar Modi Sarkar’, the BJP has embedded popular taglines and memorable slogans deep within its electoral fabric.
The party’s electoral narrative, spearheaded by its Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, meticulously pivoted around the promise of ‘Acche Din Aane Waale Hain’ (good days are about to come), amidst a backdrop dominated by reports of corruption, inflation, unemployment, and national security concerns in late 2013.
A succinct phrase like ‘Ab Ki Baar Modi Sarkar’ worked wonders for the party, seamlessly transforming into lucrative couplets that resonated with the masses through humour, sarcasm, and even criticism of the ruling UPA government led by the Congress party.
The advent of social media circa 2014 provided the perfect platform to amplify this electoral strategy, culminating in the BJP securing a historic mandate by clinching 282 seats out of 543 in the Lok Sabha.
Controversies and campaigns
However, in 2019, as the BJP geared up for its return to power, the Opposition launched a scathing assault on the central government over the Rafale fighter jets deal with France, alleging irregularities and bypassing of conventional procedures.
Amidst the Rafale controversy, the Congress leader Rahul Gandhi coined the phrase ‘Chowkidar Chor Hai’ (the watchman is a thief), insinuating that the guardian of the nation was himself involved in malpractice to benefit his associates.
In response, the BJP initiated a counter-campaign titled ‘Meh Bhi Chowkidar’ (I too am a watchman), with the Prime Minister and other party leaders adopting the prefix ‘Chowkidar’ to their names on social media platforms. This innovative campaign swiftly gained global traction, topping Twitter trends soon after its launch.
Undeterred by the Opposition’s rhetoric, Prime Minister Modi continued to push back, accusing Rahul Gandhi of disparaging the community of watchmen and highlighting his government's proactive stance against Pakistan, encapsulated in the slogan ‘Modi Hai Toh Mumkin Hai’ (with Modi, everything is possible).
This slogan, alongside the narrative of decisive action against Pakistan, particularly resonated with voters, dominating much of Modi’s discourse during the 2019 national polls.