 "CSDS survey: Modi's popularity sustains, no anti-incumbency in LS polls")
As the Lok Sabha elections draw near, the predominant query across the streets of India is whether the country will witness a surprising anti-incumbency wave when the results are announced on June 4, or not.
The CSDS-Lokniti 2024 pre-poll survey dashes the hope of any major upheaval. The Lokniti survey, posted on microblogging platform X, revealed that nearly three weeks before the voting start, the BJP held a comfortable 12 percentage point lead over the Opposition INDIA bloc.
While 34 per cent respondents said they will choose Congress and its allies if the elections were held today, 46 pre cent opted for the NDA. Individually, the BJP enjoyed 40 per cent support for the elections, while 21 per cent opted for Congress, thus hinting at a little option of change in the Prime Minister’s office.
However, it is important to note that while the survey reveals the general mood today, people’s choices can change by the time the seven-phase polls are concluded. The Lokniti-CSDS Pre-Poll Survey 2024 compiled responses from 10,019 individuals across 19 states. The survey was conducted in 400 polling stations spread across 100 Assembly Constituencies in 100 Parliamentary Constituencies.
Favourable assessment for BJP in Lok Sabha elections
The 10-year-old BJP government received a favourable assessment, with 42 per cent respondents attributing ‘good work’ to the party, 18 per cent were content with the welfare schemes, while 10 per cent believed in the charisma of Narendra Modi. Among the most admired works of the incumbent government, Ram temple was at the top spot with 23 per cent respondents.
Among the reasons for not re-electing the BJP, 32 per cent attributed it to rising unemployment, while 20 per cent voters said price rise would be the reason.
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Choice of Prime Minister for 2024 LS polls
Regarding the choice of Prime Minister, Narendra Modi maintains a significant lead over any other leader, with 48 per cent of respondents indicating their preference for him to remain as PM. Rahul Gandhi emerges as the second most popular choice with 27 per cent support, while Arvind Kejriwal, currently imprisoned Delhi CM, Mamata Banerjee, West Bengal CM, and Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav each garner only 3 per cent support.
Trust in Modi guarantees
Coming to the level of trust in the poll promises being made by various leaders, majority of the respondents believed in PM Modi’s guarantees over any other. While 23 per cent respondents said they trusted in Modi’s promises ‘a lot’, 33 per cent said they had ‘somewhat’ trust in Modi’s words. Meanwhile, 35 per cent voters said they don’t have much trust or at all in the PM’s guarantees.
Rahul Gandhi, on the other hand, mustered 17 per cent trust from the respondents, while 32 per cent said they ‘somewhat’ believed in his guarantees. 38 per cent either didn’t have ‘much trust’ or none at all in the Congress leader’s words.
Regional preference of NDA and INDIA
In terms of regional division over the choice of NDA or INDIA bloc, the north and west seemed to strongly favour the NDA (47 per cent). Although it is important to note that the support for the incumbent alliance in this region has marginally come down from actual votes percentage (48 per cent) secured in 2019. On the other hand, the Congress and its allies have increased their popularity marginally from getting 22 per cent votes in 2019 to 24 per cent, the survey revealed. However, they are still far behind the support enjoyed by NDA.