 "Election results 2024: How coalition govts have shaped Indian politics")
As the fight for the control of Centre continues with the counting of votes for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, both Congress-led INDIA bloc and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) are going neck-and-neck as of 1 pm.
Both coalitions are staring at a close fight as no single party is poised to have a majority of its own to form the next government. That trend was reversed in 2014 when the BJP came to power with an overwhelming majority with 282 seats. In 2019, the BJP bettered its individual performance and secured 303 seats.
But, by the current trends, the NDA is currently leading on 289 seats, while the INDIA bloc is ahead on 236 seats.
India's political landscape has been marked by a dynamic interplay of coalition governments since independence in 1947. The country's parliamentary system has given rise to a diverse array of political alliances, each with its own unique challenges and achievements.
How did coalition governments come into being in India?
Morarji Desai (March 1977-July 1979)
The 1970s saw the emergence of the first major coalition government in India. In 1977, the Janata Party, a coalition of opposition parties, came to power with Morarji Desai as Prime Minister.
Following two years of Emergency rule imposed by Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, Lok Sabha elections were convened in March 1977. In an effort to unseat Gandhi, six parties with diverse ideologies — Jan Sangh, Congress (O), Bharatiya Lok Dal, Socialist Party, Swatantra Party, and the newly-established Congress for Democracy (CFD) — amalgamated to form the Janata Party in January 1977, just weeks before the elections.
Under the leadership of former freedom fighter Jaya Prakash Narayan, popularly known as JP, the Janata Party achieved a landslide victory in the Hindi heartland, securing a total of 270 seats and substantially diminishing Congress' tally from 350 to 153 seats.
The Janata Party's dominance extended across several key states, including Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, and Chandigarh, while Congress was confined primarily to the Southern states of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Kerala.
However, this coalition's tenure was brief, and Indira Gandhi reclaimed power in 1980.
Charan Singh (July 1979-January 1980)
Within two years of its formation, the Janata Party fractured into factions due to ideological disparities and the political ambitions of its leaders. Charan Singh, the founder of the Bharatiya Kranti Dal and then Home Minister in the Morarji Desai administration, dissolved ten state assemblies governed by the Congress party.
Subsequently, Singh's arrest of Indira Gandhi on allegations of electoral misconduct during her 1977 election campaign resulted in a significant setback when the charges against the Congress leader were dismissed by a magistrate.
Leveraging his substantial support from farmers across different social strata, Singh forged a coalition comprising the Janata Party (Secular), Congress (Urs), and received external backing from Congress (I). Consequently, he assumed office as Prime Minister on July 28, 1979.
However, his tenure was short-lived as within 23 days, he was compelled to resign after refusing to withdraw criminal charges against Gandhi and her son Sanjay for their actions during the Emergency, prompting Congress (I) to retract its support. Remarkably, Singh remains the only Indian Prime Minister to date who has not faced Parliament during his tenure.
VP Singh (December 1989 – November 1990)
In the 1980s and 1990s, there were a series of coalition governments as no single party could secure a decisive majority in the Lok Sabha. In 1989, the National Front coalition, led by Vishwanath Pratap Singh of the Janata Dal, came into power, succeeded in 1990 by a Janata Dal (Socialist) administration under Chandra Shekhar.
Teaming up with Arun Nehru and Arif Mohammed Khan, VP Singh established the Jan Morcha, which later conjoined with other socialist parties such as Jan Morcha, Janata Party, and Lok Dal. He officially launched the Janata Dal on October 11, 1988, advocating for a centrist, secular alternative to the Congress party.
Forging alliances with Congress (S), Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), and Asom Gana Parishad, Singh led the National Front.
During the 1989 Lok Sabha election campaign, Singh framed the narrative as a battle against the Rajiv Gandhi government’s alleged corruption, contrasting his untarnished reputation with the BJP's emphasis on the Ram Janmabhoomi movement.
The 1989 election results witnessed a decline in Congress's seats from 400 to 197, while the BJP surged from 2 to 85 seats. The Left parties secured 33 seats, positioning themselves as potential kingmakers. Although the National Front won 143 seats, it fell short of its goal to establish a non-Congress, non-BJP government, resulting in Singh becoming Prime Minister with the BJP's external support.
Chandra Shekhar (November 1990 – June 1991)
The minority government led by VP Singh came to an end when Chandra Shekhar, along with Devi Lal, split from the Janata Dal, taking 64 of its 143 MPs to form the Samajwadi Janata Party (SJP). Forming an alliance with the Congress, Chandra Shekhar assumed office as Prime Minister on November 10, 1990.
However, his government collapsed within seven months after the Congress withdrew its support in March 1991, following allegations that two undercover Haryana police personnel were involved in surveillance of Rajiv Gandhi at his residence in New Delhi, 10 Janpath.
Refusing to back the Chandra Shekhar government in a vote of confidence, Gandhi accused the Haryana government, then under SJP's Om Prakash Chautala of spying, leading to Chandra Shekhar's resignation on March 6, 1991.
HD Deve Gowda (June 1996 – April 1997)
Following the conclusion of another full-term Congress government, India once again ventured into an electoral experiment with the Janata Dal during the 1996 elections.
The electoral landscape witnessed a triangular battle involving the incumbent Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao, the burgeoning BJP under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and the emergence of a 'Third Force'.
This Third Front, akin to the National Front, was spearheaded by the Janata Dal and comprised various regional parties such as the Samajwadi Party (SP), Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), All India Indira Congress (Tiwari), the Left Front (CPI, CPM, CPI (M-L), AIFB), Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC), the Jammu & Kashmir National Conference (JKNC), and the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP).
However, the election results yielded a fractured mandate, with the BJP securing 161 seats, Congress 140 seats, and the Janata Dal reduced to 46 seats. Despite Vajpayee being sworn in as Prime Minister, he failed to demonstrate majority support, leading to his resignation within 13 days.
Subsequently, with the backing of the Third Front's 136 MPs and Congress' 180 MPs, Deve Gowda took oath as Prime Minister on June 2, 1996. Congress extended external support to this coalition government known as the 'United Front'.
Inder Kumar Gujral (April 1997 – March 1998)
Congress withdrew its support for the United Front government on March 30, 1997. Subsequently, Gowda resigned on April 11, 1997, following a failed vote of confidence, expressing his intent to settle scores with the Congress.
Amidst the political turmoil, Inder Kumar Gujral, the former external affairs minister in the Gowda administration, emerged as the successor, supported by Jyoti Basu, Lalu Prasad Yadav, and Krishna Kant. Congress agreed to this selection, and Gujral assumed office as Prime Minister on April 21, merely ten days after Gowda's resignation. Once again, Congress opted to extend external support to the government.
The demise of the second United Front government also came at the hands of the Congress. On November 28, 1997, Congress withdrew its backing for the Gujral administration, marking the end of Gujral's seven-month tenure as Prime Minister.
The turn of the century brought the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to power, with Atal Bihari Vajpayee as Prime Minister from 1998 to 2004. This was followed by the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), with Manmohan Singh as Prime Minister from 2004 to 2014.
Since 1998, whenever the Lok Sabha mandate is split and a coalition comes to power, the process has been complex and fraught with political negotiations. On six instances when a non-Congress, non-BJP leader was chosen as PM, they have not lasted a complete five-year term.