 "LS polls: Here's why Nitish Kumar may not play musical chairs this time")
Speculation has been rife about Bihar Chief Minister and Janata Dal-United [JD(U)] chief Nitish Kumar’s stance within the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) following their majority in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Social media is abuzz with memes speculating Nitish Kumar’s next move. Dubbed ‘Paltu Ram’ by his arch-rival Lalu Prasad, Nitish has shifted his loyalties between coalitions since Narendra Modi’s rise in national politics in 2013.
As the JD(U) president, Nitish commands 12 Members of Parliament, making him, along with Telugu Desam Party (TDP) chief N Chandrababu Naidu, a crucial pillar for keeping the BJP on the treasury benches in Parliament. The BJP secured 240 seats in the Lok Sabha election, while the NDA collectively garnered 292 seats in the 543-member House. Other BJP allies will occupy single-digit positions in the 18th Lok Sabha.
Why there is heightened speculation about Nitish’s role
Speculation about Nitish’s role intensified after a video surfaced showing him on the same flight to Delhi as Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav, son of Lalu Prasad and former Bihar deputy chief minister under Nitish.
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Nitish was en route to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi to submit his letter of support for forming the next government at the Centre, while Tejashwi was attending an Opposition INDIA bloc meeting at Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge's residence.
This speculation was further fueled by a statement from JD(U) MLC Khalid Anwar, who said, “There is nobody better than Nitish Kumar to become the Prime Minister in the country.”
Nitish was a key founder-member of the INDIA bloc in 2023, advocating for a single opposition candidate in 400 constituencies to challenge the BJP. However, disagreements over the convener and face of the INDIA bloc led to discomfort for Nitish within the Opposition grouping.
Why Nitish Kumar may not become 'Paltu Ram' this time
In Bihar, pressure from Lalu Prasad for Nitish to cede the chief ministerial role to son Tejashwi ultimately pushed the JD(U) president to join hands with the BJP. At his latest switch, Nitish said, “I have been here and there. Everybody knows. Now, I am back with the NDA. We were together earlier also. I will not go to any other formation again.”
Sources in Patna say that rejoining the INDIA bloc is not a viable option for Nitish at this time. There is no assurance that Lalu Prasad will not demand the chief minister's position for Tejashwi, effectively ending Nitish’s political career. At 73, Nitish aims to extend his political career for a few more years.
Moreover, the INDIA bloc's fragmentation, despite its strong showing in the Lok Sabha election, makes it an improbable choice for Nitish. The Congress, falling below the psychological three-figure mark, is partnering with the Trinamool Congress, the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M), and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) — parties it has contested against in various states. Nitish, experienced in coalition politics since his days with Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani, understands the challenges of a coalition with too many parties and a weak lead party.
If the Congress had secured around 150 seats, the situation might have been different for Nitish Kumar. However, considering the current standings of the parties in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, it is reasonable for the JD(U) to remain with a more stable coalition.
What advantages Nitish may get by staying with NDA
In the previous two Modi governments, the BJP, despite having a majority, allotted ministerial berths to its pre-poll alliance partners under restrictive terms — one minister per party. With the BJP now lacking a majority on its own, its allies can demand more ministerial berths at the Centre. Nitish’s party, which previously stayed out of the government over the single-berth offer, is likely to secure at least three ministerial positions, including a couple of Cabinet ranks.
Additionally, with the JD(U)’s better-than-expected performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, Nitish Kumar can now assert his claim as the NDA’s chief ministerial candidate for the upcoming Bihar Assembly election.
The BJP, having struggled to find a credible pan-state face, is likely to maintain this arrangement for the stability of the third Modi government. This stability is something Nitish may not achieve if he joins the INDIA bloc, given Tejashwi Yadav’s ambitions and assertiveness in political dealings.