INDIA bloc's combined strength plays spoilsport for BJP in 2 biggest states

The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc on Tuesday delivered better-than-expected results in the 2024 general elections.

The bloc, which was formed in 2023 to challenge the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), saw major gains in the two biggest states by number of seats — Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra.

It also outperformed in the southern state of Tamil Nadu, signalling that the strategy of fighting together may have worked.

Congress had given up its seats for the alliance and was contesting the lowest number of seats since Independence at 328.

At a press conference on Tuesday, Rahul Gandhi said that Congress leaders respected INDIA bloc allies and “we fought as one.”

According to the Election Commission data (at 7:30 pm), the INDIA bloc was leading in 234 seats.

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was leading in 291 seats, much lower than the exit poll prediction of 350-400 seats. Other parties were leading in 18 seats.

Most exit polls had predicted that the INDIA bloc would win around 150 seats.

The most notable gains were made by the alliance in Uttar Pradesh. Here, Samajwadi Party (SP) was leading in 37 seats and Congress in 6 seats. The BJP was leading in 33 seats, much lower than 62 seats in 2019.

In the state, Akhilesh Yadav's SP was able to increase vote share from 18.11 per cent in 2019 to 33.53 per cent. For Congress, the vote share rose from 6.36 per cent to 9.53 per cent. BJP's share fell from 49.97 per cent to 41.37 per cent. Uttar Pradesh sends the most number of members to Lok Sabha, at 80.

In Maharashtra, which has 48 seats in Lok Sabha, Congress emerged as the single-largest party, leading in 13 seats.

Its INDIA bloc partners Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackrey) and Nationalist Congress Party – Sharadchandra Pawar were leading in 9 and 7 seats, taking their total to 29. Their combined vote share was over 43 per cent.

It marked a significant moment for both the allies of Congress, which lost their original names and symbols in the run-up to the elections. This came after some members broke off to establish their separate parties.

These parties, Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), were contesting in coalition with the BJP in the state. BJP was leading in 10 seats, followed by Shiv Sena in 7 and one by NCP.

The INDIA bloc also worked in Tamil Nadu, which is the fifth largest state. All 39 seats in the state were led by the alliance.

Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) was ahead in 22 seats followed by the Congress in nine. The Communist Party of India (Marxist), Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi and the Communist Party of India were leading in two seats each.

The alliance also made inroads into Bihar with it leading in 9 out of 40 seats. In 2019, NDA had won 39 of the 40 seats in the state.

Following the narrow lead of the NDA, speculations arose around the prospects of the INDIA bloc to form the government.

A party or coalition needs to win 272 seats to form the government. For INDIA, this would include Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu. Notably, Kumar and Naidu were among the founding members of the bloc and left it later to join hands with the BJP.

The bloc is set to meet in New Delhi on Wednesday to decide the future course of action.

NCP (SP) chief Sharad Pawar said that the opposition bloc was not likely to form the government at the Centre.

“I am not sure if the INDIA alliance can form the government. We will meet on Wednesday and decide unanimously on the future course of action,” he said at a press conference.

Gandhi later said the bloc would also decide whether to approach Kumar and Naidu to attempt government formation at the Centre.

“We won't say anything without asking the opinion of our allies. Our alliance will decide and whatever is decided, we will act on that,” he said. 

BJP leader Jai Bhagwan Goyal, however, termed the bloc's performance as "fragmented" and said that the opposition has “no clear vision or leadership.”