 "Lok Sabha 2024: As INDIA closes in on NDA in UP, a repeat of 2004 on cards?")
As the counting for the 2024 Lok Sabha is underway, the early trends seem to paint a more even picture than the one painted by exit polls. The counting, which began at 8 am, showed that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) had gone past the majority mark with a lead on 290 seats. And the INDIA bloc was trailing close with a lead on 222 seats at 10:30 am.
In terms of state-wise trends, the most significant state which sends the highest number of parliamentarians (80) to the Lower House, was displaying an interesting trend.
While the NDA leads in 37 seats (the BJP in 34, the RLD in two, and Apna Dal (S) in one), the INDIA bloc is ahead in 42 seats (SP in 35 and Congress in seven), according to the latest trends available on the Election Commission website. Chandrashekhar of the Azad Samaj Party (Kanshiram) is leading in Nagina.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav were leading from the Varanasi, Lucknow, Rae Bareli, and Kannauj Lok Sabha seats.
Meanwhile, Union ministers Smriti Irani and Anupriya Patel (Apna Dal (S), and senior BJP leader Maneka Gandhi were trailing in the Amethi, Mirzapur, and Sultanpur constituencies.
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2019 poll results in UP
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led NDA won 62 of the state’s 80 seats, with the BSP and Samajwadi Party, then allies, winning 10 and five seats, respectively.
This time, the Samajwadi Party and the Congress have tied up for the opposition INDIA bloc and the BSP is on its own.
For the Congress, Amethi and Rae Bareli, its family strongholds, are prestige battles. This holds especially true for Amethi, where Rahul Gandhi lost to BJP’s Smriti Irani last time.
While the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party is contesting 62 seats, the Congress is fighting 17.
This time, the BJP has stuck to its old ally, Apna Dal (Sonelal), and has also brought in Jayant Chaudhary’s RLD and OP Rajbhar’s Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party into the NDA fold.
Exit polls predicted heavy win for NDA
Exit polls have given the NDA an edge in Uttar Pradesh, but the INDIA bloc leaders have dismissed the projections.
The News18 Mega Exit poll had predicted 64-67 seats for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Uttar Pradesh, and for the NDA, it expected 68-71 seats out of the total 80. It said that the Opposition’s INDIA bloc is likely to win nine to 12 seats.
UP stopped the NDA brigade in 2004
It is important to remember that in the 2004 General Elections, where the exit polls and pundits had predicted that the NDA- under Atal Bihari Vajpayee would sweep the elections, UP had played an important role in the NDA’s defeat.
When the results were announced, the SP won 35 out of the 80 seats, while the BSP secured 19 seats. The BJP could only muster 10 seats in the state.
The state electorate has clearly rejected the BJP’s ‘India Shining’ slogan due to the party’s poor performance. The party’s decline continued, with its numbers falling significantly from the victories in over 50 seats it had achieved in the state during the 1991, 1996, and 1998 elections.
The Vajpayee government’s decision to call snap polls proved costly, resulting in the party’s lowest tally in the state since the 1989 election.
Prominent state BJP leaders, including Union ministers Murli Manohar Joshi and Swami Chinmayanand, state assembly speaker Keshari Nath Tripathi, and Uttar Pradesh party unit chief Vinay Katiyar, were all defeated.
The Ram temple issue also failed to help, as the party’s candidate Laloo Singh was defeated in Faizabad by BSP’s Mitrasen Yadav.