 "Lok Sabha 2024: Why Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar are kingmakers now")
Lok Sabha Election Results 2024: As the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears poised to fall short of the majority mark, the prospects of a new Narendra Modi-led government hinge on the support of two seasoned kingmakers: Chandrababu Naidu of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)], both long-term allies of the BJP within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
According to the latest trends released by the Election Commission of India (ECI) at 8 pm, the BJP is leading and has secured victory on 240 seats, 32 seats shy of the required 272 for a majority. Meanwhile, the TDP is leading or has clinched victory on 16 seats, all in Andhra Pradesh, and the JD(U) is leading or has won on 12 seats, all in Bihar.
Should these numbers hold, Naidu and Nitish are poised to play pivotal roles in backing Narendra Modi’s government in New Delhi. Here’s a short history of these two leaders and their noteworthy political journeys:
Chandrababu Naidu
Chandrababu Naidu, who contested both Lok Sabha and Assembly polls in Andhra Pradesh in alliance with the BJP and the Jana Sena party, has wielded significant influence as a kingmaker in the past.
In 1996, amidst a fractured mandate in the Lok Sabha polls, Naidu, as the convener of the United Front, facilitated the formation of the HD Deve Gowda government with external support from the Congress.
Subsequently, he played a key role in forming the government led by Inder Kumar Gujaral at the Centre during the same period.
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In 1999, aligning with the BJP, Naidu secured 29 seats in united Andhra Pradesh, bolstering the then Atal Bihari Vajpayee government, which fell short of a majority. Despite not joining the government officially, TDP’s 29 seats made it the BJP’s largest ally.
In 2014, Naidu once again forged an alliance with the BJP, joining the Modi government, only to part ways in 2018 ahead of Andhra Pradesh’s Assembly polls.
What may happen next?
Emerging once more as the main partner within the NDA, Naidu could reprise his role as a kingmaker and potentially revive his party, which has weathered setbacks in recent years.
However, it may be remembered that in a hung Parliament, loyalties are fluid. While TDP has historically positioned itself against the Congress, it has engaged with the party previously, notably contesting the Telangana Assembly polls in alliance and exploring Opposition coalitions ahead of the 2019 elections.
Nitish Kumar
A stalwart of social justice politics in Bihar, Nitish Kumar served as Union Minister for Railways and Minister for Surface Transport in the NDA government of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. He later assumed the role of Minister for Agriculture in the same government.
For an extended period, Nitish was the senior partner in the NDA in Bihar and emerged as the BJP’s chief ally in 2009, securing 20 seats in the state when the saffron party faced challenges at the national level.
However, Nitish’s political trajectory in recent years has been marked by oscillations.
In 2014, he severed ties with the NDA, contesting Bihar’s Lok Sabha polls independently but managing only two seats. Subsequently, he aligned with Lalu Yadav for the 2015 Assembly elections, resulting in a resounding victory for the alliance.
However, within two years, he realigned with the NDA, leading to a landslide victory in Bihar’s Lok Sabha polls, securing 39 of the 40 seats.
Nevertheless, following the JDU’s lackluster performance in the 2020 Bihar Assembly polls, despite the alliance's electoral success, Kumar grew uneasy with the BJP, ultimately breaking the alliance in 2022 to form a government with the RJD. However, just prior to the 2024 polls, he reunited with the NDA.
‘All eyes on Nitish Kumar’ now
The JDU’s stronger performance compared to its alliance partner in Bihar in the current polls has once again propelled Kumar to the forefront, infusing fresh vitality into his party.
However, Nitish’s propensity for political manoeuvring, earning him the moniker of ‘Paltu Ram’ in Bihar, underscores the uncertainty surrounding his alliances. Cynical observers suggest he may shift allegiances at will.