Lok Sabha 2024: Will Mamata's TMC hold the fort in Bengal? Trends say yes

After initial scare where the BJP was racing ahead of the TMC, the Mamata Banerjee-led party surged and is currently leading on 31 seats after vote counting till 11:30 am

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance and Bengal’s ruling Trinamool Congress — nominally part of the Congress-led INDIA bloc, though currently competing as rivals due to failed seat-share negotiations — are in a tight race for the state’s 42 Lok Sabha seats.

At 11:30 am the Trinamool – rebounding strongly after conceding early leads to its rival – was leading on 31 seats, followed by 9 seats for BJP and 2 for Congress and one for CPI(M), as per the Election Commission trends. 

Among the heavyweights, the Congress’ Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury was trailing in Bahrampur – one of only two seats the party won in 2019. He was trailing by around 3,000 votes, as Yousuf Pathan takes lead.

From the BJP, Agnimitra Paul was holding lead in her Medinipur seat, and former Calcutta High Court judge Abhijit Gangopadhyay, who recently joined the BJP, was leading in Tamluk.

Trinamool’s Mahua Moitra, who was suspended from the Lok Sabha last year, was trailing by over 12,000 votes in Krishnanagar, where the BJP’s Amrita Roy, a local royal family member, was leading.

TMC Jadavpur candidate Sayoni Ghosh was leading by a margin of over 45,000 votes., while Birbhum candidate Shatabdi Roy was leading by a margin of over 40,000 votes.

Trinamool's Sreerampur candidate Kalyan Banerjee was leading by a margin of over 21,000 votes, while Kolkata Uttar candidate Sudip Bandyopadhyay leading by a margin of 14,992 votes.

BJP Darjeeling candidate Raju Bista leading by a margin of over 17,000 votes.

TMC Hooghly candidate Rachana Banerjee leading by a margin of 12,200 votes.

BJP state president Sukanta Majumdar trailing in Balurghat by a margin of 11,500 votes.

TMC Asansol candidate Shatrughan Sinha leading by a margin of 6,546 votes.

Congress' Debangshu Bhattacharya is leading in Tamluk by 1,372 votes.

West Bengal’s polling occurred in seven phases to elect 42 Parliament members, concluding on June 1. Due to this, Mamata Banerjee skipped the INDIA bloc meeting held on the same day at Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge’s residence, attended by senior leaders from Congress, Samajwadi Party, CPI-M, CPI, DMK, JMM, AAP, RJD, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (Sharad Pawar). The TMC and PDP did not attend.

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance and Bengal’s ruling Trinamool – a member (on-paper) of the Congress-led INDIA bloc, although they are competing as rivals in the state after failed seat-share talks – are neck-and-neck in the race for the state’s 42 Lok Sabha seats.

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‘Khela hobe’: Bengal key battleground for BJP

Bengal is a crucial battleground in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, with the BJP aiming to seize control from Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress. A strong performance in Bengal is vital for the BJP’s goal of reaching 370 seats and ultimately surpassing 400 seats in total.

Bengal Lok Sabha Election: Exit Polls

Exit polls had given the BJP an advantage over Trinamool. Three pollsters had predicted that the BJP will halt the TMC’s winning streak in the state. Exit polls, conducted by ‘Jan Ki Baat’, predicted 21 to 26 seats for the BJP while 16 to 18 seats for the TMC in the Lok Sabha elections. 

Meanwhile, Republic Bharat-Matrize estimated 21-25 seats for BJP and 16-21 seats for Trinamool Congress, whereas India News – D-Dynamics predicted the saffron party to win 21 seats, with TMC close behind with 19 seats.

If these projections do hold somehow, it would mark a significant victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party, which has been aggressively targeting Mamata Banerjee and her party since their resounding defeat in the 2021 state elections.

However, on Sunday, after exit poll data was released, Banerjee dismissed the predictions.

In 2019’s exit polls, the pollsters had predicted a neck-and-neck fight between the Modi-led government and TMC, with the BJP expected to win 19 to 23 seats and the Trinamool 19 to 22 seats. 

Later, the TMC formed the government by clinching 22 seats, while BJP came very close by winning 18 seats in the state, and Congress struggled with two seats.