 "Lok Sabha elections 2024: Exit polls today. Key things to watch out for")
Voting for Lok Sabha Elections 2024 will end with the last and seventh phase of polling on Saturday. Today's polling will decide the fate of 904 candidates, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, across 57 seats in seven states and one Union Territory.
Notable candidates in this phase include Union minister Anurag Thakur, Mamata Banerjee's nephew Abhishek Banerjee, Lalu Prasad's daughter Misa Bharti, and actor Kangana Ranaut.
Polling is taking place in all 13 seats of Punjab, four in Himachal Pradesh, 13 constituencies in Uttar Pradesh, nine in West Bengal, eight in Bihar, six in Odisha, three in Jharkhand, and Chandigarh.
Over 100 million citizens, including nearly 50 million men, 40.8 million women, and 3,574 third-gender electors, are eligible to vote in this phase.
Once polling ends, attention will turn to exit polls, which aim to predict whether the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) under PM Modi or the Congress-led opposition INDIA bloc will form the next government.
What are some of the seats to watch for in today’s exit polls?
A repeat of Hindi heartland BJP supremacy
More From This Section
The Hindi belt, or Hindi heartland, is crucial in shaping political power in India. This is partly due to its numerical strength, as the north accounts for a significant 245 seats in the Lok Sabha. Excluding Punjab and Jammu & Kashmir, the Hindi belt alone has 226 seats.
In 1967, the entire Hindi belt expressed its dissatisfaction with the Congress, shaking the Congress system and marking the beginning of a new political era both within and outside the party. In 1977, the Hindi belt played a key role in the defeat of Indira Gandhi’s party, facilitating a reconfiguration of political forces.
In the mid-1990s, the BJP saw substantial gains in this region over three successive elections, entrenching Hindutva politics in the Hindi belt.
However, compared to the enthusiasm of the 2014 and 2019 elections, this year’s election is considered ‘lacklustre’ by most political analysts and many voters.
Of the 225 Lok Sabha seats in the Hindi heartland, the BJP had won 119 seats in 2019.
In 2019, except in Bihar where the BJP had a state-level partner, the party's vote share in the remaining Hindi belt states ranged from 50 to over 60 per cent. The BJP won nearly all the seats in many of these states. In Uttar Pradesh, despite winning 60-plus seats out of 80, it fell short.
Even if the BJP replicates its 2019 performance in other states of the region, it will not add to its strength. Therefore, to improve on its 2019 performance, the BJP must win more seats in UP. In Bihar, the alliance with state-level parties limits the number of additional seats the BJP can secure.
Lokniti’s pre-election survey in late March found that 60 percent of voters in this region identified price rise and unemployment as key issues influencing their vote, a proportion higher than in the south or east.
Thus, the exit polls will reveal whether the BJP can maintain its dominant position.
Gaining a foothold in South India
Political strategist Prashant Kishor predicts that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will gain 20-25 seats in the East and South, regions where the party has struggled to expand. The South is poised to play a crucial role in the BJP's campaigns for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Although the BJP has seen great success in the last two national elections, there is considerable room for growth in the South.
Political strategist Prashant Kishor predicts that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will gain 20-25 seats in the East and South, regions where the party has struggled to expand. The South is poised to play a crucial role in the BJP's campaigns for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Although the BJP has seen great success in the last two national elections, there is considerable room for growth in the South.
Despite its significant victory in 2019, the BJP secured only 29 out of 129 seats across the five southern states, with 25 of these seats in Karnataka and four in Telangana. The party did not win any seats in Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, or Kerala, and has historically never won a seat in Kerala.
In previous elections, the BJP won 21 southern seats in 2014, 19 in 2009, 18 in 1999 and 2004, and 20 in 1998. Before these elections, their tally remained below seven seats. Political analysts suggest that the BJP's image as a Hindi, Hindu, and Hindutva party has hindered its success in South India, where dominant regional parties like the DMK, AIADMK, TDP, YSRCP, and BRS hold significant sway.
To achieve its goal of "400 paar," the BJP must significantly expand its presence in the South.
Strengthening West Bengal
In 2019, the BJP made significant inroads into the TMC stronghold in West Bengal, winning 18 seats and coming a close second to the ruling TMC, which won 22 seats. The BJP hopes to add about a dozen seats to its tally after focusing intensely on the state in recent years and garnering substantial voter support. Such gains in West Bengal could offset losses in other states. Prime Minister Modi has expressed confidence that the BJP will be the biggest gainer in West Bengal.
In 2019, the BJP made significant inroads into the TMC stronghold in West Bengal, winning 18 seats and coming a close second to the ruling TMC, which won 22 seats. The BJP hopes to add about a dozen seats to its tally after focusing intensely on the state in recent years and garnering substantial voter support. Such gains in West Bengal could offset losses in other states. Prime Minister Modi has expressed confidence that the BJP will be the biggest gainer in West Bengal.
However, TMC leader and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's strong hold on the state remains formidable. Despite years of attention from senior BJP leaders, the party has not been able to significantly erode the TMC's voter base.
The battle for Bihar
The BJP faces a challenging task in Bihar, having won 39 out of 40 seats in 2019 with a 54 per cent vote share. Maintaining this high bar seems difficult due to recent political turbulence in the state. Analysts suggest that, in addition to anti-incumbency sentiments, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s return to the NDA camp has not yielded the expected benefits.
Friends or foe in Odisha
The Bharatiya Janata Party has upped the ante in Odisha as it aims to dethrone Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal, which has traditionally been pro-National Democratic Alliance.
Odisha, which sends 21 MPs to the Parliament, will vote for six seats in Phase-7, of which the BJD won four and the BJP won two in 2019.
At a BJP rally in Mayurbhanj, Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed concern over reports of Patnaik's "failing health" in the last decade and said he would constitute a committee to probe if those close to him who have been beneficiaries of his power are conspiring against him.
Naveen Patnaik rebutted that if Modi was so concerned about his health, he should have spoken to him.
What are exit polls?
An exit poll is a survey conducted after voters leave polling stations, to predict the winners and the margin of victory based on voter feedback. These polls aim to reflect public sentiment before the official results are announced, although their accuracy has often been questioned.
Given the varying predictions from numerous exit polls, it can be challenging to determine which, if any, to trust. Parties lagging behind in exit polls frequently claim these surveys to be inaccurate.
These exit polls are different from the predictions of poll pundits like Prashant Kishor or Yogendra Yadav in the sense that these surveys gauge the mood of the voter and a baseline trend/current as opposed to a more analytical and hopeful analysis by political leaders.
The first exit poll in India was conducted in 1957 by the Indian Institute of Public Opinion during the second Lok Sabha elections. In 1996, Doordarshan, a state-run broadcaster, hired the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies to conduct exit polls nationwide.
How are exit polls conducted?
The exit polls are conducted to gauge the general voter sentiment during an election. Exit polls gauge voter sentiment by interviewing voters soon after they leave the polling stations during the elections.
Various private agencies conduct exit polls using different sample sizes and methodologies, both online and in person.
Exit polls serve as a general guide rather than an exact predictor and often fail to accurately forecast the actual outcome. However, due to the excitement and anticipation surrounding the official results, people often turn to these predictions to get an idea of what might happen.
On Friday, the Congress announced that it will not participate in any exit poll debates on television channels, stating that it does not want to engage in speculation and ratings-driven conflicts.
When are the exit polls released?
The Election Commission of India bans the conduct of exit polls during the voting process, but permits their publication 30 minutes after the last vote is cast.
According to rules, exit poll data cannot be released before 6:30 pm on June 1, the final day of polling. This regulation is governed by Section 126A of the Representation of the People's Act, 1951.
What are some of the major exit poll agencies?
Prominent agencies that release exit poll surveys include India Today-Axis My India, News24-Todays Chanakya, News18-IPSOS, Times Now-VMR, India TV-CNX, ABP-CSDS, India News-Polstrat, and CVoter.
In 2019, most exit polls correctly predicted that the BJP-led NDA would return to power, which materialised with the coalition winning 353 seats. The BJP alone captured 303 out of the total 543 seats. Meanwhile, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) secured 90 seats.
To form a government at the Centre, a party or coalition must win at least 272 constituencies in the Lok Sabha elections.
The results for the general elections will be announced on June 4.