 "Lok Sabha elections: Modi 3.0 in coalition, BJP in Kerala. 10 key takeaways")
Lok Sabha elections 2024: The Lok Sabha elections has concluded and former Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to take charge of the country for the third time on Saturday. But, with new companions this time.
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and former Andhra CM Chandrababu Naidu have emerged as the ‘kingmakers’ in the elections after the Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party failed to secure the majority of seats (272) by itself like it had performed in the 2019.
10 key takeaways from Lok Sabha elections 2024:
1) Role of Nitish Kumar, Chandrababu Naidu
Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal United and Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party have extended their support to the BJP-led coalition National Democratic Alliance. The BJP’s 240 Lok Sabha seats coupled with JD(U)’s 12 seats in Bihar and TDP’s 16 in Andhra coupled will boost NDA’s numbers to reach the magic figure. The return of the NDA government as a coalition may witness some changes in the allocation of the key union cabinet portfolios.
2) BJP loses Ayodhya, home to Ram Mandir
The BJP, which had aimed for a 370 goal this time, faced its biggest setback in Uttar Pradesh where the saffron party was down to 33 seats this time. The Opposition’s strategy to contest the polls together, coupled with factors like rural distress cost the BJP its 29 seats in the state. The loss of the Ayodhya constituency, home to the new Ram temple, was an additional shocker for the saffron party. Modi himself was able to retain his Varanasi constituency for the third term, however, his win margin declined to nearly 150,000 votes from over 450,000 last time.
3) Samajwadi Party, Congress revival in UP
The Congress and the Samajwadi Party made an impressive comeback in UP, recovering from their humiliating defeat in 2019 when both (without an alliance) had won just six seats in total. The SP won 37 seats in UP this time while the Congress clocked six, including its stronghold Amethi, which it had lost in 2019. Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ series, aimed at reviving the party’s grassroots momentum is one of the factors attributed to the party’s strong performance in the polls.
4) BJP’s national vote share declines
In terms of vote share, the BJP’s national tally dropped to 36.56 per cent this time from 37.3 per cent previously. In contrast, the Congress’ vote share increased to 21.19 per cent from 19.5 per cent earlier. This marginal increase boosted the party’s Lok Sabha seat tally to nearly double at 99 from just 52 in the 2019 polls. The NDA faced major dents in vote share in UP and Maharashtra, where the INDIA bloc was able to bridge the huge gap seen in the 2019 polls. In UP, the gap reduced from 11.8 per cent to just 0.7 per cent while in Maharashtra, the gap dropped to 19.1 per cent to -1.2 per cent this time.
5) 13 union ministers lose polls
The BJP’s humbling win was shaped by another key factor: The defeat faced the party’s prominent faces. Former Union Ministers Smriti Irani, Rajeev Chandraskher and Arjun Munda were among the big guns of the saffron who lost the election. As for the NDA government, as many as 13 union ministers lost the polls.
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6) INDIA performance in Maharashtra
In Maharashtra, the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackrey) and Nationalist Congress Party – Sharadchandra Pawar, outperformed their rival factions led by Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar. With Congress, the alliance managed to win 30 seats in all, while the NDA won 17 seats.
7) BJP’s vote share grows in Kerala, tally down in Karnataka
In the south, the BJP mirrored its 2019 performance by winning 29 seats in five states: Three in Andhra, eight in Telangana, one in Kerala, and 17 in Karnataka. It did not win any seats in Tamil Nadu. The party breached Kerala for the first time and made gains in Telangana but its tally in Karnataka declined due to Congress’ strong comeback. The Congress had won 27 seats last time in the five states but has done much better this time by winning 40 constituencies. The BJP's vote share in Kerala grew from 13 per cent to 16.68 per cent this year.
8) Congress ends loss streak in Gujarat
Like the BJP’s Kerala entry, the Congress ended its Gujarat loss streak after two Lok Sabha polls this time. The Congress candidate Geniben Thakor won the Banaskantha Lok Sabha seat in Gujarat, the home state of Modi where his party had secured 100 per cent seats in the last two polls.
9) World records made in Lok Sabha polls 2024
This year’s Lok Sabha election broke many records, as the Election Commission announced on Monday. A record-breaking 642 million Indians voted, setting a global record. Among them, 312 million were women, also a world record, according to the Election Commission.
10) Exit polls biggest losers
In summary, the Lok Sabha elections 2024 turned out to be a happy event for all parties. The NDA is happy to return at the Centre while the Opposition is celebrating its strong comeback. Meanwhile, the biggest loser turned out to be the exit poll predictions, which underestimated the Opposition's strategy. Majority of the pollsters had given an edge to the BJP-led NDA, predicting 350-400 seats for them, which was way off the mark compared to the final outcome.