 "Lok Sabha elections: How close 2019 exit polls were to result? Check list")
Lok Sabha elections 2024: Anticipation is building rapidly for the 2024 Lok Sabha election results, with various stakeholders anxiously awaiting the outcome. Political pundits, including Prashant Kishor, predict a win for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance. Nevertheless, the Opposition remains resolute in its determination to fight until the end.
People are also eagerly waiting for the conclusion of the final phase of the elections on June 1. After this, exit polls will be broadcast, providing an early glimpse of the final results, which are set to be announced on June 4.
It is important to note that exit polls are under embargo until all phases of the polls are completed as part of the Model Code of Conduct. According to the Election Commission’s announcement, the exit polls are banned till 6:30 pm on June 1.
How are exit polls conducted?
The exit polls are conducted to gauge the general voter sentiment during an election. The results of exit polls are concluded based on interviews conducted with the voters right after exit polling stations during the elections.
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There are various exit polls conducted by several media outlets, including India Today, ABP News, News24 among others, aired on television news channels under various names. To be clear, exit polls are a rough guide, not a precise predictor and can often miss the mark when it comes to predicting the actual outcome. Nevertheless, as the suspense and anticipation of waiting for the actual results are often so thrilling, people look up to these predictions to gauge what might happen.
In 2019, the majority of the exit polls had predicted that the BJP-led NDA would return to power, which indeed happened with the coalition grabbing 353 seats. The BJP alone secured 303 out of the total 543 seats. Meanwhile, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) won 90 seats.
To form government at the Centre, a party or a coalition needs to secure at least 272 constituencies in the Lok Sabha polls.
How close the 2019 exit polls were to the result?
1) India Today-Axis My India predicted a landslide victory for the BJP-led NDA, which it said would win between 339 and 365 seats while the UPA was projected to win 77-108 seats. According to the channel, their methodology included surveying about 800,000 people across all constituencies.
2) News24-Todays Chanakya - They said that the NDA would win about 350 seats (give or take 14) while the UPA - 95 (give or take 9).
3) News18-IPSOS predicted 336 seats for the NDA in the 2019 polls. Their survey projected 82 seats for UPA and 124 seats for other parties.
4) Times Now-VMR: According to them, the NDA was projected to win around 306 seats while the UPA was to win 132 seats (with a margin of error of 3 for all projections).
5) India TV-CNX: Their survey estimated 300 seats (plus or minus 10 seats) for the NDA and 120 seats (plus or minus 5) for the UPA.
6) ABP-CSDS survey predicted 277 seats for the NDA and 130 seats for the UPA.
7) India News-Polstrat predicted 287 seats for the NDA and 128 for the UPA.
8) CVoter: 287 for NDA, 128 for the UPA and the remaining seats for other parties.