 "Lok Sabha Elections: What do Yogendra Yadav and Prashant Kishor predict?")
Political analysts Yogendra Yadav and Prashant Kishor have provided their predictions for Lok Sabha Elections 2024, adding to the anticipation surrounding the electoral outcome.
Here is a closer look at who they are and what they have to say about the ongoing elections ahead of the final phase of polling.
But first, here is a brief overview of the Lok Sabha Elections 2024
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections, marking the 18th general election in the country, will see 543 constituency seats contested. Conducted over seven phases, the elections so far have been a tough contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by the incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Indian National Congress (INC or Congress) led by Rahul Gandhi, along with their respective alliances.
Breakdown of the phases:
Phase 1 (April 19): 102 constituencies in 21 states/Union Territories
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Phase 2 (April 26): 89 constituencies in 13 states/UTs, including all 20 seats in Kerala
Phase 3 (May 7): 93 constituencies in 12 states/UTs, with all 26 seats in Gujarat
Phase 4 (May 13): 96 constituencies in 10 states/UTs, including all 25 seats in Andhra Pradesh and 17 in Telangana
Phase 5 (May 20): 49 constituencies in 8 states/UTs, including the lone seat in Ladakh
Phase 6 (May 25): 57 constituencies in 7 states/UTs, with all seven seats in Delhi and 10 in Haryana
Phase 7 (June 1): 57 constituencies in 8 states/UTs, with all seats in Punjab and Himachal Pradesh
Exit Polls will be released after voting for the final phase ends on June 1 at 6 pm. Here is all you need to know about exit polls.
The final result will be declared on June 4, when votes will be counted.
What does Yogendra Yadav predict for the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections?
Yogendra Yadav shared his predictions for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections last week, suggesting that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may face challenges in achieving a decisive victory.
Yadav predicts that the BJP alone will not exceed 260 seats and will find it "impossible" to surpass the 300-mark. He even suggested that the saffron party might fall below 275 or even 250 seats.
His analysis indicates that the BJP's claim of winning over 400 seats is unrealistic.
In a video released by Yadav on YouTube, he forecasts that the BJP will win between 240 and 260 seats while NDA allies will likely secure 35 to 45 seats. This would give the NDA 275 to 305 seats, enough to form a government but significantly short of the 400-seat target set by the BJP.
Yadav also predicts a resurgence for the Congress party, estimating it will win between 85 and 100 seats, a significant increase from the 52 seats it secured in the 2019 general elections. Additionally, he expects the INDIA bloc, the Congress-led alliance, to win between 120 and 135 seats. This would give the Opposition alliance 205 to 235 seats, presenting a formidable challenge to the BJP.
"400 paar wali baat to total hawaii thi, 300 paar karna bhi BJP k liye namumkin hoga (While the 400 seats claim was flimsy, for BJP it will be difficult to win even 300 seats)," Yadav said in his prediction video.
Yadav believes that while the BJP remains a strong contender and will likely remain in power following the elections, achieving their ambitious seat goals will be a significant challenge. This highlights the potential for a more competitive election than the BJP might have anticipated.
What does Prashant Kishor predict for the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections?
Political strategist Prashant Kishor has stated that the incumbent BJP government at the Centre faces neither significant dissatisfaction nor a strong demand for an alternative in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The Jan Suraaj Party chief predicts that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to lead the BJP to another victory, with the party potentially matching or surpassing its 2019 seat tally of 303.
"I think the Modi-led BJP is returning. They may get the same numbers as last election or do slightly better," Kishor told NDTV during an interview earlier this week.
Prashant Kishor on there being no widespread anger against Modi:
Kishor explained that if there had been widespread public dissent against the party's leader, then ousting the BJP from power would have been a possibility.
While there has been discontent and dissatisfaction with the party, there is no widespread anger against it, and more importantly, with BJP Chief Narendra Modi himself.
"If there is anger against the incumbent government and its leader, there is a possibility that regardless of whether there is an alternative, people may decide to vote them out. So far, we have not heard that there is widespread public anger against Modiji. There may be disappointment, unfulfilled aspirations, but we have not heard of widespread anger," Kishor said.
Prashant Kishor On BJP's 370, NDA's 400+ seat target:
When asked about the BJP's ambitious target of 370 seats and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) aiming for 400-plus seats, Kishor downplayed the significance of such targets.
In another interview with RTV Andhra Pradesh, the political analyst said, "If the BJP wins 275 seats, its leaders are not going to say that we will not form the government because we had claimed we will win 370. So, we need to see whether they are getting 272, the majority mark. Politics and chatter will continue. Those doing commentary will continue to do so. But I don't see any risk, and the NDA seems to be returning to power."
Risks to BJP's victory in Lok Sabha elections 2024:
Prashant Kishor further explained that to be ousted, the BJP would need to lose 100 seats in North and West India without gaining any in the East and South.
BJP currently holds less than 50 of the 240 seats in the East and South, which include states like Bihar, West Bengal, Assam, Odisha, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala. The party's strength comes from the North and West, where it has secured 260-270 out of 300 seats.
Kishor expressed scepticism about the BJP losing 100 seats in the North and the West.
"I don't see the BJP losing 100 seats in these regions. Moreover, the BJP's vote share and seats are rising in the South and East," he said.
Kishor mentioned that the BJP's majority would be at risk only if the Congress, Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar, and the NCP-Shiv Sena-Congress alliance in Maharashtra achieved a strike rate of over 30 per cent.
Despite predictions of losses in Rajasthan and Maharashtra, Kishor suggested that the BJP might only lose 20-30 seats but would likely compensate for these losses with gains in the South and East.
On May 24, Kishor also took to X (formerly Twitter) to share a screenshot from Yogendra Yadav's video predicting the ongoing Lok Sabha election results. According to Yadav, the BJP is expected to secure 240 to 260 seats, with its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners adding another 35 to 45 seats, bringing the coalition's total to between 275 and 305 seats.
"272 seats are required to form a government in the country and BJP/NDA has 303/323 seats in the outgoing Lok Sabha. (Shiv Sena won 18 seats as part of NDA but is no longer with them). Now, you can judge for yourself whose government is being formed. You will know on 4 June who is talking about whom," Kishor posted.
Comparing Yogendra Yadav and Prashant Kishor's predictions
Both political analysts Yogendra Yadav and Prashant Kishor appear to agree that the BJP will return to power, with Narendra Modi securing his third term as Prime Minister of India.
The difference between the two analyses lies in the exact number of seats with which the BJP will return to power. This, in turn, reflects each party's influence in the country and may even pave the way for the next elections.
Yogendra Yadav's predictions for Congress, BJP, NDA and INDIA bloc
BJP: 240-260 seats
NDA: 35-45 seats
Congress: 85 to 100 seats
INDIA bloc: 120 to 135 seats
Prashant Kishor's predictions for BJP and Congress
BJP: 303 or more seats
Congress: Less than 100
Yadav's analysis reflects a growing influence of not just the Congress but several parties in the INDIA bloc, including AAP, SP, TMC, DMK, and Shiv Sena. Although Yadav forecast less than 50 seats for the NDA alliance members, it does suggest that the ruling BJP will not secure a majority without these seats in the Lok Sabha elections.
Conversely, Kishor's analysis indicates that the BJP is capable of securing a majority even without the support of the NDA, placing far more power and influence in the hands of the ruling party. Kishor's comments about Congress securing less than 100 also show the party's dwindling influence and relevance, which would not bode well for the ongoing or future general elections.
Who is Yogendra Yadav?
Yogendra Yadav, 60, is an Indian activist, psephologist, and politician with a strong focus on political and social sciences. He served as a senior fellow at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in Delhi from 2004 to 2016. He was a member of the University Grants Commission (UGC) and the National Advisory Council on the Right to Education Act (NAC-RTE) in 2010.
Yadav co-founded Swaraj Abhiyan and Jai Kisan Andolan and was the founding National President of the political party Swaraj India.
In 2011, he supported and actively participated in the nationwide anti-corruption protests, leading to his involvement with the AAP, where he served on the National Executive. However, his dual roles created controversy, resulting in his ejection from the UGC in 2013. Yadav contested the 2014 Indian general elections from Gurgaon as an AAP candidate but was unsuccessful. He was expelled from AAP in 2015 for alleged anti-party activities.
Yadav advocated for the NOTA option in the 2019 Indian general elections, urging voters to reject all candidates if no suitable options were available. He also played a significant role in the 2020–2021 Indian farmers' protest as a member of the Samyukt Kisan Morcha coordination committee. In 2022, Yadav joined Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra.
Key Points of Yogendra Yadav's predictions
BJP's seat estimate: Predicts BJP will win between 240 and 260 seats.
NDA's total seats: Forecasts National Democratic Alliance (NDA) allies will secure 35 to 45 seats, giving NDA a total of 275 to 305 seats.
Challenges for BJP: Believes BJP will find it difficult to exceed 260 seats and almost impossible to reach 300 seats.
Congress' performance: Estimates Congress will win between 85 and 100 seats, a significant increase from 2019.
INDIA bloc: Projects the INDIA bloc, led by Congress, will win between 120 and 135 seats.
Overall Opposition: Suggests the opposition alliance will secure 205 to 235 seats, posing a formidable challenge to BJP.
Who is Prashant Kishor?
Prashant Kishor, often referred to as PK is a prominent Indian political strategist. Before entering Indian politics, he worked for eight years in public health programs funded by the United Nations.
Kishor's political journey began with the BJP, where he gained insights as a strategist before working with various parties, including JD(U), Congress, AAP, YSRCP, DMK, and TMC.
His breakthrough came in 2011 when he played a pivotal role in securing Narendra Modi's re-election as Chief Minister of Gujarat. Subsequently, his brainchild, Citizens for Accountable Governance (CAG), engineered a campaign that helped propel Modi's BJP to victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
Kishor has also collaborated with leaders like Amarinder Singh, Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy, Arvind Kejriwal, Mamata Banerjee, and M K Stalin, among others. Despite occasional setbacks, he continues to play a significant role in Indian politics.
Key Points of Prashant Kishor's predictions
BJP's victory: Predicts BJP will likely match or surpass its 2019 tally of 303 seats.
Public sentiment: Notes there is no widespread anger against Prime Minister Narendra Modi or the BJP.
Seat targets: Downplays BJP's ambitious targets of 370 seats and NDA’s 400-plus seats, focusing on achieving a simple majority of 272 seats.
Regional performance: Highlights BJP’s strengths in the North and West, and potential gains in the South and East.
Risks to BJP: Suggests BJP would need to lose 100 seats in the North and West without compensating gains in the East and South to be ousted.
Congress' performance: Predicts Congress will secure less than 100 seats, indicating a decline in its influence.
Both Prashant Kishor and Yogendra Yadav come from different backgrounds and have experience supporting and working with different parties. While neither can be considered completely unbiased, they both agree that the BJP is the strongest contender for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. When it comes to assessing the influence of Opposition parties, however, Yadav appears to believe in a growing influence of Congress and members of the INDIA bloc. Whereas, Kishor diminishes the influence of BJP's largest Opposition. The exit polls on Saturday could provide further insights and value to the perspectives shared by the two political analysts.