Lok Sabha polls 2024: Long, bitter election fight heads towards conclusion

By Dan Strumpf and Preeti Soni

The world’s largest election is drawing to a close. 

After more than six weeks of polling, India’s marathon general election enters its seventh and final phase on Saturday, as voters in seven states brave record-breaking heat to cast their ballots. 

The results won’t be declared until June 4, but Saturday will offer the first glimpse at whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi is on track to capture a historic third term, with exit polls set to publish soon after voting ends. 

Saturday’s vote draws the curtain on what has turned into an increasingly bitter contest between Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party and an opposition coalition that had been seen as struggling to mount a strong offensive. 

Pre-election polls showed Modi’s party securing enough seats for a comfortable majority in India’s lower house of parliament, the Lok Sabha, though analysts and party insiders have more recently said that the BJP’s goal of securing an overwhelming 400-seat majority with allies is looking in doubt. 

Modi and allies have ramped up their attacks on the opposition, arguing that the Indian National Congress, the biggest opposition party, would redistribute wealth to Muslims and “infiltrators.” The Congress party said the BJP was misrepresenting its campaign pledges. 

The prime minister has said he is confident of a third term, telling Indian broadcaster NDTV last week that he was sent by God “for a purpose.” He added: “Once the purpose is achieved, my work will be done. This is why I have completely dedicated myself to God.” 

Modi is spending the campaign’s final days meditating on a small island off India’s southern tip. Opposition figures described the island retreat as a stunt and a violation of election rules. 

“He may meditate but why in the presence of cameras?” said Mamata Banerjee, an opposition member who leads West Bengal state.

The close of voting comes as a fresh heat wave pushes temperatures to new highs in parts of the country. Temperatures in several cities crossed 50C (122F) this week, while a single observatory in New Delhi recorded a high of 52.9C on Wednesday. 

While exit polls are poised to give an early look at results, such polls have a mixed tracked record in Indian elections. Pollsters correctly predicted the broad outlines of the result from the 2019 and 2014 general elections, but they were mostly off-base in 2004 and 2009, according to an analysis of polling data by Standard Chartered Plc. 

The length of the election has fueled financial-market volatility and “led to various narratives and counter-narratives in the media,” the bank’s economists wrote in a research report. 

The election’s final phase will cover constituencies in states including the populous northern state of Uttar Pradesh. The entire northern Indian state of Punjab is heading to the polls with its 13 seats, while in the country’s east, in West Bengal, the BJP faces a fierce challenge as it seeks to wrest control from Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress. 

Here are some races to watch on Saturday: 

• The industrial city of Ludhiana has a multi-pronged contest with leaders from the BJP, Congress, Aam Aadmi Party and a regional party competing. The AAP is part of the opposition alliance but has chosen to fight on its own in Punjab, where it also runs the state government
• Going to vote is Modi’s constituency of Varanasi, the Hindu holy city where he was reelected in 2019 with a margin of nearly 500,000 votes. It’s Modi’s third time contesting from the city
• Banerjee’s nephew, who is being investigated by federal agencies, is contesting from the Diamond Harbour constituency in West Bengal. Banerjee has been a vocal critic of Modi but declined to join the opposition alliance