 "Losses for non-aligned regional parties could be BJP's gains in LS polls")
The findings of the nation’s leading pollsters, unveiled on Saturday, painted a sombre picture for the non-aligned regional parties in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, suggesting significant losses.
These losses, exit polls projected, would be the wellspring of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s most substantial gains.
Several pollsters, most prominently Axis-My India, indicated that the BJP was poised to hold its ground largely in its traditional strongholds in northern and western India. Moreover, it was set to bolster its tally, riding on the back of its improved performances in eastern and southern India, at the expense of these regional players.
Axis-My India, which shared detailed data, pointed out that the regional parties that were neither in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) nor in the Congress-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), were on course for significant attrition. These included the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, which is part of the INDIA bloc but couldn’t reach an electoral adjustment with the Congress and Left parties in the state. Other parties on this list were Odisha’s Biju Janata Dal, Andhra Pradesh’s YSR Congress Party, Telangana’s Bharat Rashtra Samithi, the Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh, and the Left Democratic Front in Kerala.
The forecast suggested that the BJP+ would lose 33 seats in its strongholds of Maharashtra, Bihar, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Jharkhand, and Haryana, compared to its 2019 tally. However, it would gain almost 60 seats in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala. The survey attributed the BJP’s improved performance primarily to the Centre’s welfare schemes. Other pollsters, such as CVoter and Today’s Chanakya, also forecasted significant gains for the BJP in these states.
According to Axis-My India, the BJP’s vote share would surge to sizeable double digits in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Punjab. This surge would be aided by a lack of unity among the Opposition parties, such as in West Bengal, where the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress and the Congress couldn’t strike a pre-poll alliance. The pollster claimed that the fight between the LDF and the Congress-led United Democratic Front in Kerala created space for the BJP.
On the other hand, the BJP managed to forge alliances in Andhra Pradesh (with the Telugu Desam Party and Jana Sena) and in Karnataka (with the Janata Dal Secular). The exit polls suggested that these alliances would bolster its seat tallies in these two states. According to the pollster, the Opposition parties were not united in 358 seats across India, and united in only 85 seats, such as Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, and Delhi.
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The Axis-My India exit polls predicted that the BJP would improve its performances, over 2019, in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh, thanks to the Centre’s welfare policies. The BJP had won 28 of MP’s 29, nine of Chhattisgarh’s 11, and 62 of UP’s 80 seats in 2019. The survey stated: “Modi is seen as the chief wage earner (CWE) by most of the rural and poor families because of the continuous delivery of various social welfare schemes along with his overall management of the Covid pandemic. More importantly, he is visible and seen as working 24x7 for the country without any family baggage.”
The Axis-My India poll claimed that its 912 surveyors, and 152 teams, each with five members and a team leader, interviewed 582,574 people across India from April 20 to June 1, and found “strong pro-incumbency in favour of the Modi government”.
The exit poll by News 18, which claimed to have interviewed 100,000, predicted the BJP could get 305-315 seats, and the NDA could win 355-370 seats, mostly because of the BJP’s gains in Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu.
The Axis-My India poll said the INDIA bloc was hobbled by the regional parties unwilling “to sacrifice or concede space to the Congress”. It said the NDA continued to be popular among the Scheduled Tribes, most Other Backward Castes (OBCs), and upper castes while the INDIA bloc found more support among the Scheduled Castes, dominant sections of the OBCs, such as Yadavs, and minorities, especially Muslims. Women voted by at least 2 per cent more than men for the BJP, it said.