 "This is what the News18 exit poll predicts about BJP's gains across India")
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) are poised to dominate the Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, and Uttar Pradesh in the recently concluded parliamentary elections, according to the News18 Mega Exit Poll.
The Hindi belt is crucial in shaping political power in India, partly due to its numerical strength. The northern states account for a significant 245 seats in the Lok Sabha, with the Hindi belt, excluding Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir, holding 226 seats.
Here is a state-wise breakdown of the BJP's predicted dominance in the Hindi heartland states according to the News18 exit poll:
Chhattisgarh
Total seats: 11
The exit poll suggests that the outcome in Chhattisgarh will be similar to 2019. The BJP and NDA are projected to win 9-11 of the 11 Lok Sabha seats, while the Congress and the INDIA bloc are expected to secure 0-2 seats. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 9 of the 11 seats with a 51.44 per cent vote share, while the Congress captured the remaining two seats with a 41.51 per cent vote share.
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Rajasthan
Total seats: 25
The BJP and its allies are expected to win 18-23 of the 25 seats in Rajasthan, with the Congress and its INDIA bloc likely to get 2-7 seats. In the 2019 elections, the BJP swept Rajasthan, winning 24 of the 25 seats with a 59.07 per cent vote share. The Congress received 34.59 per cent of the votes but failed to win any seats. The Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, part of the BJP-led NDA, won the remaining seat with a 2.06 per cent vote share.
Madhya Pradesh
Total seats: 29
In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP-led NDA could secure 26-29 of the 29 seats, while the Congress and INDIA bloc might end up with 0-3. In the 2019 elections, the BJP won 28 of the 29 Lok Sabha seats in Madhya Pradesh with a 58 per cent vote share. The Congress won the remaining seat with a 34.5 per cent vote share across the state.
Uttar Pradesh
Total seats: 80
Uttar Pradesh, crucial for the BJP's 'Mission 400' goal, is predicted to give the BJP-led NDA between 68-71 seats, according to the News18 Mega Exit Poll. This represents a gain from 2019, when the BJP won 62 seats, but does not surpass the 2014 tally when the BJP secured 71 seats, propelling it to power at the Centre. The exit poll forecasts 9-12 seats for the INDIA bloc (Congress and Samajwadi Party) in the state.
Bihar
Total seats: 40
The politically significant state of Bihar, which has seen major political shifts following JDU chief Nitish Kumar's alignment with the NDA, is predicted to yield around 31-34 seats to the NDA and 6-9 seats to the INDIA grouping. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-JD(U)-LJP alliance in Bihar won 39 out of 40 seats. The sole victory for the RJD-led opposition alliance went to the Congress in the Kishanganj seat.
Apart from the Hindi heartland, the exit polls have hinted at a strengthening of BJP votes in the South as well.
Telangana
Total seats: 17
In Telangana, the BJP is projected to win 7-10 seats with a 37 per cent vote share, marking a significant improvement from the 4 seats and 19.45 per cent vote share it achieved in 2019.
Karnataka
Total seats: 28
In Karnataka, the BJP is expected to secure 21-24 seats, slightly fewer than the 25 seats it won in 2019. Despite this minor decline, the BJP maintains a dominant position in the state. The NDA is anticipated to win 23-26 seats.
Tamil Nadu
Total seats: 39
In Tamil Nadu, the BJP is projected to win 1-3 seats as part of the AIADMK+ alliance, which is expected to achieve a 17 per cent vote share. This is a notable improvement from the 0 seats and 3.66 per cent vote share in 2019, indicating that the BJP's alliance strategy is beginning to bear fruit in the Dravidian heartland.
Andhra Pradesh
Total seats: 25
The BJP is projected to win 4-6 seats in Andhra Pradesh, a state where it previously won no seats and had a meagre 0.96 per cent vote share in 2019. The NDA, including the BJP, is expected to win 19-22 seats with a 61 per cent vote share, indicating a substantial political shift in the state, largely benefiting from the decline of the regional party YSRCP.
Kerala
Total seats: 20
In Kerala, the BJP is expected to win 1-3 seats with a 16 per cent vote share, compared to no seats and a 12.93 per cent vote share in 2019. This suggests that the BJP is making inroads in a state traditionally dominated by the Left and the Congress.
Odisha
Total seats: 21
The BJP is projected to win 13-15 seats in Odisha with a 40 per cent vote share, compared to 8 seats and a 38.37 per cent vote share in 2019. This represents a significant gain, reflecting increased support for the BJP in the state.
West Bengal
Total seats: 42
The BJP is projected to win 21-24 seats in West Bengal with a 43 per cent vote share, up from 18 seats and a 40.25 per cent vote share in 2019. This indicates a strengthening of the BJP's position in a state where it has been rapidly expanding its influence.
Assam
Total seats: 14
In Assam, the NDA is projected to win 10-13 seats, up from the 9 seats the BJP won in 2019. This indicates a strengthening grip for the BJP and its allies in the northeastern state.
Punjab
Total seats: 13
In Punjab, the BJP is projected to win 2-4 seats, slightly improving from the 2 seats it won in 2019. This indicates a modest gain for the party in the state.
Delhi
Total seats: 7
The BJP is expected to win 5-7 seats in Delhi, compared to the 7 seats it won in 2019. This suggests a strong retention of its position in the national capital.
Gujarat
Total seats: 26
The BJP is expected to win all 26 seats in Gujarat, replicating its 2019 performance. This demonstrates a strong hold for the BJP in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's home state.
Haryana
Total seats: 10
In Haryana, the NDA is projected to win 5-7 seats, down from the 10 seats the BJP secured in 2019. This suggests potential setbacks for the BJP in a state where it previously dominated.
Jharkhand
Total seats: 14
The NDA is projected to win 9-12 seats in Jharkhand, compared to the 11 seats the BJP won in 2019. This suggests a modest decline for the BJP in the state.
Maharashtra
Total seats: 48
The BJP is projected to win 20-23 seats in Maharashtra, with the NDA securing 32-35 seats, compared to the 23 seats the BJP won in 2019. This indicates a potential decline for the BJP, though the NDA remains strong.