Maharashtra poll results: Tracing five years of political twists and turns

Maharashtra elections results 2024: With the past five years witnessing two alliances and a split, Maharashtra's political landscape has been nothing short of a roller coaster ride

As Maharashtra awaits the final results of its assembly elections, due to be announced on November 23, exit polls suggest a fiercely contested showdown between the ruling Mahayuti alliance and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).

 

The Mahayuti alliance, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is projected to maintain a slight advantage in many exit poll surveys, for its strong performances in Mumbai, Vidarbha, and the Konkan region. Exit polls like Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya predict the alliance could secure a decisive majority, while others, such as C-Voter and P-MARQ have forecasted a closer race, leaving several seats hanging in the balance.

 

For the MVA — a coalition of the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction — these elections are a test of unity and resilience. With projections varying widely, from a slim chance of overtaking the Mahayuti to being significantly outpaced, the alliance's regional performance could prove pivotal. 

 

As the final vote count approaches on November 22, all eyes are on Maharashtra’s key battlegrounds, where vote shares and seat tallies will determine which coalition will shape the state's political future.

 

Here’s a look at how dynamic has Maharashtra’s politics been since the last Assembly elections in 2019 which had resulted in a hung assembly:

   

Power struggle in Maharashtra since 2019 

The October 2019 Maharashtra Legislative Assembly elections produced a hung assembly. The alliance between the BJP and Shiv Sena secured a combined 161 seats but failed to form the government due to disagreements over power-sharing. The Shiv Sena insisted on a rotational chief ministerial arrangement, which the BJP rejected.

 

In these elections, voter turnout was recorded at 61.4 per cent across the 288 constituencies. The BJP-Shiv Sena pre-poll alliance under the NDA banner saw participation from other smaller parties. However, differences between the two major partners over the chief ministerial post led to the alliance's collapse, preventing the formation of an NDA government.

 

With no party able to secure a majority or form a government within the prescribed time, President’s Rule was imposed in the state.

   

Ajit Pawar’s early coalition with BJP 

On November 23, 2019, NCP leader Ajit Pawar unexpectedly joined hands with the BJP, leading to the swearing-in of Devendra Fadnavis as Chief Minister and Ajit Pawar as Deputy Chief Minister. However, both resigned three days later, on November 26, before proving their majority in the assembly.

 

In response, the Shiv Sena, led by Uddhav Thackeray, formed the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance with the NCP (led by Sharad Pawar) and Congress, staking their claim to power. Uddhav Thackeray was chosen as Chief Minister, and the coalition government took office on November 28, 2019. 

 

Formation and collapse of the Maha Vikas Aghadi 

The MVA government endured three years of governance amidst frequent political turbulence. The stability was disrupted in June 2022, when Eknath Shinde, a prominent Shiv Sena leader, led a rebellion against Uddhav Thackeray. Shinde, accompanied by other Shiv Sena MLAs, first relocated to Gujarat and later Assam, eventually aligning with the BJP to form a new government.

 

On June 30, 2022, Eknath Shinde assumed the role of Chief Minister, with Devendra Fadnavis returning as Deputy Chief Minister. Uddhav Thackeray, facing an imminent no-confidence motion, had resigned from both his post and his legislative membership a day earlier.

 

In May 2023, the Supreme Court ruled that the actions of then-Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari and Assembly Speaker Rahul Narwekar during this political crisis were not in accordance with the law. However, it declined to reinstate the Uddhav Thackeray government, citing his resignation, which had led to the cancellation of the floor test.

 

Ajit Pawar’s defection in 2023 again 

In July 2023, Ajit Pawar further realigned Maharashtra’s political equations by joining the Shinde-led government. His move consolidated the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, securing the party’s name and election symbol — the watch — from the Election Commission.

 

Ajit Pawar’s defection caused a significant rift within the NCP, undermining the leadership of his uncle, Sharad Pawar. The split weakened the NCP and raised questions about its future, especially with the 2024 Lok Sabha elections approaching. Sharad Pawar described his nephew’s decision as a “robbery”, reflecting the depth of the division.

 

This defection also dealt a major blow to the MVA alliance, comprising the NCP, Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction), and Congress. The loss of Ajit Pawar’s faction weakened the opposition’s ability to counter the ruling coalition, casting doubt on its unity and preparedness for upcoming elections.