 "Maharashtra polls 2024: Women voters and Maratha quota take centre stage")
Maharashtra’s 97 million voters are gearing up for the Assembly elections on November 20, with all eyes on the state’s 288 seats. The political landscape is more fragmented than ever, with multiple factions claiming to be the true heirs to major parties. Shiv Sena has split into the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), while the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) is divided between Ajit Pawar’s camp and Sharad Pawar’s faction. The alliances are equally complex: the BJP-led Mahayuti (Grand Alliance) includes the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) and NCP (Ajit Pawar faction), while the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) unites Congress, Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction), and NCP (Sharad Pawar faction).
As the state braces for one of its most contentious elections, here are the key issues shaping the narrative:
Shifting political alliances and rivalries
The political landscape in Maharashtra has been volatile since the 2019 Assembly elections. Shiv Sena’s split from BJP after the last elections led to the formation of the Maha Vikas Aghadi government with Congress and NCP. However, internal rifts caused another split in Shiv Sena in 2022, with Eknath Shinde aligning with BJP. More recently, Ajit Pawar broke away from NCP to join the BJP-led alliance, leaving Sharad Pawar to lead the opposition faction.
The Mahayuti alliance, which faced setbacks in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, has regained momentum after BJP’s success in Haryana and a strategic seat-sharing deal. BJP hopes these alliances will help replicate its 2019 victory.
Turncoat leaders and their impact
Maharashtra’s political scene is filled with leaders who have switched parties multiple times. Congress leader Nana Patole, for example, was previously with BJP before returning to Congress. Similarly, Vijay Wadettiwar, Congress’s Opposition leader, started his career with Shiv Sena. With alliances fluid and no clear frontrunner, these turncoats could become key players in a close contest.
Women voters in focus
After losing ground in the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP-led Mahayuti has launched the “Ladki Bahin” scheme, offering Rs 1,500 per month to women aged 21-65 with an annual income below Rs 2.5 lakh. The scheme targets two crore women voters, a group that could swing the results if mobilised effectively. MVA has countered with promises of Rs 3,000 per month for women.
Maratha reservations and caste dynamics
The Maratha reservation issue remains a flashpoint, especially in Marathwada, where the community has significant influence. Maratha leader Manoj Jarange Patil has criticised BJP for excluding the community from the Other Backward Classes (OBC) quota. In response, the Mahayuti government is courting other communities, such as tribals and OBCs, by setting up new corporations for underrepresented groups like Agris, Vani-Vani, Lohar, Shimpi, and Gavali.
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Rebel candidates and Vidarbha’s importance
Rebel candidates could disrupt party strategies. BJP is grappling with 43 rebel candidates, while Shiv Sena and NCP face 10 and 14 rebels, respectively. Vidarbha, with its 62 seats, is a key battleground given its historical role in BJP’s victories. Both alliances are working to consolidate support in this region despite the challenges posed by internal dissent.
The battle of freebies
Both alliances have ramped up their promises, offering a range of cash incentives and subsidies. Mahayuti has pledged Rs 1,500 under the Ladki Bahin scheme, while MVA promises Rs 3,000 for women, free bus travel, and Rs 4,000 for unemployed youths. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has gone further, promising Rs 2,100 per month for women, farm loan waivers, and reduced electricity bills. This race to offer more benefits is expected to influence voter decisions heavily.
Agrarian distress and farmer discontent
Agriculture remains the backbone of Maharashtra’s economy, but farmers face recurring challenges from unseasonal rains to export bans. Onion farmers were severely impacted by the export ban during the Lok Sabha elections, damaging Mahayuti’s credibility. Although the ban was later lifted, the harm had already been done. Now, both alliances are pledging farm loan waivers to address farmer grievances.
Unemployment and the Gujarat factor
The migration of major projects from Maharashtra to Gujarat has fuelled resentment, especially among the youth. Promises of new Maharashtra Industrial Development Corporation (MIDC) centres and industrial projects are central themes in the campaigns of several candidates. Unemployment remains a pressing issue, with voters demanding policies that prioritise job creation within the state.