Majority of exit polls give BJP-led NDA edge in Maharashtra, Jharkhand

Most pollsters predicted on Wednesday evening that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was on course to unseat the INDIA bloc in the 81-member Jharkhand Assembly. They projected a closer fight in the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly, with an edge to the NDA. The counting of votes will take place on Saturday.

 

The current round of elections for the Maharashtra and Jharkhand Assemblies, two Lok Sabha (LS) by-polls, and 48 Assembly by-polls concluded on Wednesday evening, with the Election Commission (EC) bemoaning the “dismal” turnout of urban voters in Mumbai City, Mumbai Suburban, Pune, and Thane districts, which together comprise 75 Assembly seats.

 

In Uttar Pradesh (UP), where by-polls were held on nine Assembly seats, the EC suspended at least seven cops and removed several others from poll duty after videos surfaced of them trying to prevent electors from a particular community from voting. A couple of pollsters said the BJP could win six of the nine seats, with the Samajwadi Party (SP) winning the remainder. The BJP had performed poorly in UP during the 2024 LS polls.

 

Most pollsters predicted an NDA win in Jharkhand, except for Axis My India, which said the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led alliance would improve upon its 2019 performance by winning 53 seats. It forecast a massive 45 per cent vote share for the JMM and its allies in the INDIA bloc, compared to 37 per cent for the BJP-led NDA. 

   

Axis My India claimed that its surveyors found 47 per cent of women electors voted for the INDIA bloc and only 35 per cent for the NDA. Among men, 43 per cent voted for the INDIA bloc and 39 per cent for the NDA. The Hemant Soren-led government had rolled out a Rs 1,000 monthly allowance scheme for women in the run-up to the elections. Dainik Bhaskar predicted a hung Assembly, with the two alliances securing an almost equal number of seats but falling short of the majority mark. 

 

In Maharashtra, most exit polls said the Mahayuti, an alliance comprising the BJP, Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), would return to power. Pollsters such as Times Now-JVC, Matrize, and PMarq put the NDA (Mahayuti) ahead, but Dainik Bhaskar predicted that the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which comprises the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (SP), would win more seats. The Lokshahi Marathi Rudra exit poll said the two alliances were likely to fall short of the majority mark of 145 seats, with the Mahayuti only marginally ahead of the MVA. A survey conducted by Delhi University’s Centre for Global Studies predicted electoral victories for the Mahayuti in Maharashtra and the NDA in Jharkhand.

 

Almost all pollsters had failed to predict the results of the Haryana Assembly polls, which took place in October. Announcing the poll schedule for Maharashtra and Jharkhand on October 15, Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Rajiv Kumar flagged the need for better rigour and diligence in the conduct of exit polls. He had asked the electronic media to introspect and urged its self-regulatory bodies, such as the National Broadcasting Standards Authority, to look into the matter.

 

“We do not govern exit polls, but there is a need for self-introspection. What was the sample size, where was the survey conducted, how did the result come about, and what is my responsibility if I did not match that result? Are there disclosures? All of these need to be examined,” Kumar said. “Counting happens roughly on the third day after the elections end. Expectations rise from 6 pm, but there is no scientific basis for this in public disclosure," the CEC had said.