Shiv Sena split, Maratha unrest: How will Maharashtra vote on November 20?

The Shiv Sena split and growing Maratha unrest over reservation demands have created an unpredictable electoral environment in the state

Maharashtra is gearing up for a high-stakes Assembly election on November 20, with political turbulence marking the lead-up. The split within the Shiv Sena and ongoing Maratha reservation protests have created an unpredictable electoral landscape. As the state’s political parties brace for a crucial battle, questions abound about how these developments will shape voter behaviour in one of India’s most politically significant states.

The Shiv Sena split: A divided house

The once-unified Shiv Sena, a powerful force in Maharashtra's politics, is now deeply fragmented. The party is split into two factions, one led by Uddhav Thackeray and the other by Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde. This division, which began during the 2019 Maharashtra political crisis, has significantly altered the state's political equations.

Thackeray’s faction is now aligned with the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), a coalition comprising the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) led by Sharad Pawar and the Congress, while Shinde’s faction is part of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-backed Mahayuti alliance.

The impact of this split on the upcoming election is yet to be fully seen, but analysts predict a fragmentation of the traditional Shiv Sena vote base. The split has led to significant political infighting, with both factions claiming to represent the “real” Shiv Sena. The Election Commission’s decision to allot the party's name and symbol to Shinde’s faction earlier this year has further deepened the divide, leaving Thackeray’s camp to rebrand itself.

The political rivalry between the two factions may confuse voters who were once loyal to a unified Shiv Sena. While the Thackeray-led MVA has focused on projecting itself as a defender of Maharashtra’s regional pride and social justice, the Shinde-BJP alliance is banking on welfare schemes and promises of political stability to woo voters.

 

Maratha unrest: A pivotal election issue

At the heart of the election is the growing discontent over the Maratha reservation issue. The Maratha community, which constitutes nearly 30 per cent of the state’s population, has been demanding inclusion in the Other Backward Classes (OBC) category to secure access to government jobs and education. The movement has intensified in recent months, with protests erupting across the state, particularly in the Marathwada region. Manoj Jarange-Patil, a prominent leader of the movement, has led hunger strikes, demanding that the state issue Kunbi certificates to Marathas, which would entitle them to OBC benefits.

The state government’s response has been cautious, with efforts to balance the demands of the Marathas while avoiding backlash from the OBC community, which is resistant to any change that might reduce their own share of reservations. While Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s government has attempted to defuse tensions by approving the Justice Sandeep Shinde Committee’s report to expedite Kunbi certificate issuance, the issue remains unresolved and could play a decisive role in determining the election results.

Voter sentiment and key issues in Maharashtra

The Maratha unrest and the Shiv Sena split are just two of several factors influencing voter sentiment in Maharashtra. Agrarian distress, particularly in the Vidarbha and Marathwada regions, has compounded the challenges for the ruling Mahayuti alliance. Falling prices for onions, cotton, and soybeans have caused significant financial strain on farmers, many of whom had traditionally supported the BJP. The government's recent subsidies, including Rs 5,000 per acre to cotton and soy farmers, may help alleviate some of this distress, but it is uncertain whether these efforts will be enough to turn the tide in the Mahayuti’s favour.

Adding to the complexity is the state’s economic concerns. The relocation of key industrial projects to Gujarat has stoked anger among sections of the electorate, who accuse the central government of undermining Maharashtra’s economic interests. The opposition MVA has seized on this issue, framing the election as a battle for Maharashtra’s economic future and regional pride.

 

A fragmented political landscape

Maharashtra’s political landscape is more fragmented than ever. Aside from the Shiv Sena split, the NCP, too, has seen its share of internal rifts, with Ajit Pawar breaking away from his uncle Sharad Pawar to align with the BJP. This division has created six major players in the upcoming election—the Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction), Shiv Sena (Shinde faction), NCP (Sharad Pawar faction), NCP (Ajit Pawar faction), Congress, and BJP—leading to an unprecedented level of electoral competition.

The recent Lok Sabha election results in the state offered a glimpse of this fragmentation. The MVA secured 31 out of Maharashtra’s 48 seats, while the BJP-led Mahayuti managed to win only 17, with the Congress increasing its tally from 1 to 13 seats. The MVA hopes to build on this momentum, while the BJP is banking on its strong rural network and welfare schemes like the Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana, which provides cash transfers to women.

Maharashtra polls: What lies ahead?

As the November 20 election approaches, Maharashtra faces a critical political juncture. Will the Shiv Sena split and Maratha unrest propel the MVA to power, or will the BJP-led Mahayuti manage to hold onto the reins with its welfare schemes and political manoeuvres? With issues of identity politics, agrarian distress, and economic concerns all colliding, the state’s electorate is expected to vote with caution, knowing that the results will reverberate far beyond its borders.