Will Maharashtra, Jharkhand polls defy exit predictions like Haryana, J&K?

Exit polls, seen as a measure of public opinion, faced criticism this year for being highly inaccurate

Voters in Maharashtra and Jharkhand cast their votes on Wednesday (November 20) to elect representatives for their legislative assemblies, with the outcomes set to be announced on November 23. As voting concluded, focus turned to the emerging exit polls. Yet, their reliability remains under scrutiny, following notable missteps in recent elections, including those in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir.

 

Exit polls, often touted as a barometer of public sentiment, have faced backlash this year for significant inaccuracies, prompting public apologies from polling firms. 

 

Understanding exit polls: Methodology and limitations 

Exit polls are surveys conducted with voters immediately after they cast their votes. While they provide insights into voting trends, they are not always accurate and should be interpreted cautiously.

 

Exit poll methodology

 

1. Sampling: Diverse polling stations are selected to reflect the electorate's demographics and political leanings.

 

2. Questionnaire: Voters are asked about their choice and demographic details, such as age, gender, and socioeconomic status.

 

3. Data collection: Pollsters approach voters outside polling stations, maintaining anonymity to encourage honest responses.

 

4. Analysis: Data is statistically analysed, accounting for turnout discrepancies and demographic imbalances.

 

5. Predictions: Projections are made with a margin of error, indicating confidence levels in the results.

 

6. Media reporting: Media organisations release results post-voting, accompanied by disclaimers about limitations.

 

Despite these robust methodologies, factors like sampling errors, voter misreporting, and unforeseen trends can lead to deviations from actual outcomes.

 

Lessons from Haryana and J&K elections 

Recent state elections have highlighted the pitfalls of relying on exit polls. In Haryana, exit polls largely favoured the Congress, predicting a straightforward victory. Instead, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) retained power, winning 48 of 90 seats, surpassing its 2014 performance and bucking anti-incumbency. The Congress, expected to lead, secured only 37 seats. 

Similarly, in Jammu and Kashmir, exit polls gave an edge to the National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance, projecting 40–48 seats. While the alliance did secure 48 seats, the breakdown revealed that the NC dominated with 42 seats, leaving the Congress with only 6. The BJP, which was predicted to secure 27–32 seats, managed 29, while the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) faltered with just 3 seats.

 

Exit poll prediction for Haryana and J&K elections 

Exit poll predictions for Haryana varied widely:

 

- C-Voter-India Today: Congress (50–58), BJP (20–28) 

- Republic Bharat-Matrize: Congress (55–62), BJP (18–24) 

- Peoples’ Pulse: Congress (49–60), BJP (20–32), with the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) tally higher than the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP).

 

In Jammu and Kashmir:

 

- C-Voter-India Today: NC-Congress alliance (40–48), BJP (27–32) 

- Peoples’ Pulse: NC-Congress alliance (46–50), BJP (23–27) 

- Republic-Gulistan: NC-Congress alliance (31–36), BJP (28–30)

 

Discrepancies between predictions and actual results have reignited questions about the reliability of exit polls and their methodologies.

 

The road ahead: Maharashtra and Jharkhand 

As Maharashtra and Jharkhand brace for results, exit polls will once again take centre stage. Will they redeem their credibility, or will this election expose further cracks in their forecasting models? Voters and analysts alike will watch closely to see whether polling firms have fine-tuned their methodologies or if history will repeat itself.