Rajasthan exit polls: Govt change tradition to continue; landslide for BJP

Rajasthan Assembly elections 2023: A party must secure 101 out of the 200-seat Assembly to form government in the state

Exit polls for Rajasthan indicate there may be a change in government, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) winning a majority in the 2023 state Assembly elections. Exit polls for all five states were released on Thursday evening upon the conclusion of voting in Telangana. All poll-bound states - Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram- went to polls between November 7 and 30. 

 

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Rajasthan, initially scheduled to vote on November 23, went to polls last week on Saturday, November 25. With 52 million registered voters, approximately 74.13 per cent voter turnout was recorded in Rajasthan, slightly above the 74.06 per cent voter turnout recorded in the 2018 assembly polls.

The exit polls showed a clear majority toward the BJP. In Rajasthan, for a party to form a government, they must secure 101 out of 200 seats. In 2018, Congress secured 100 seats, one short of the majority required. They formed the government with Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and independent candidates.
 

Republic TV- Matrize (115-130 seats to BJP, 65-75 seats to Congress), P-MARQ (105-125 seats to BJP, 69-91 seats to Congress), and Times Now-ETG (108-128 to BJP, 56-72 seats to Congress) predict a clear win for the Opposition party in the state.

The lower end of the Jan Ki Baat survey (100-122 seats to BJP, 62-85 seats to Congress) may recreate Congress' situation from the 2018 elections. However, with 85 seats (at most), Congress is far below the majority to give BJP any contest.

 

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TV9 Bharatvarsh Polstrat exit poll expects a stiff contest between the two major parties, with BJP to lead with 100-110 and Congress to secure 90-100. Similarly, Dainik Bhaskar predicted 98-105 seats for BJP and 85-95 seats to Congress.

India Today- Axis My India ( 86-106 seats to Congress, 80-100 to BJP) and India TV- CNX (94-104 seats to Congress, 80-90 BJP) exit polls provide some relief to Congress supporters, showing the party leading the elections.

Rajasthan has alternated governments since 1993 between the Congress and BJP. Congress formed the government in 2018, and if tradition follows, and the majority of the exit polls are to be believed, then the BJP is poised to win the 2023 Rajasthan elections.

BJP is yet to announce any chief minister candidate, a position that has been held twice by BJP leader Vasundhara Raje.