Don’t miss the latest developments in business and finance.

Home / Elections / Assembly Election / News / 150 seats in UP, AIADMK support crucial for Modi govt to win prez polls

150 seats in UP, AIADMK support crucial for Modi govt to win prez polls

Around 150-seats in UP would deliver BJP 31,200 votes in the presidential electoral college

Modi
Premium
Prime Minister, Narendra Modi with Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, Edappadi K. Palaniswami during their meeting in New Delhi (Photo: PTI)
Archis Mohan New Delhi
Last Updated : Mar 01 2017 | 9:36 AM IST
Connect with us
Facebook IconLinkedIN Icon
Currently, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has nearly 3.80 lakh votes in the presidential electoral college. To reach the halfway mark of 5.49 lakh votes, the party needs another 1.7 lakh votes. The over 1 lakh votes of its alliance partners, both at the Centre and in states, reduces this gap to around 70,000 votes. This is where the Uttar Pradesh assembly, with its 403 seats and a total value 83,824 votes to the presidential electoral college, is important.

The President of India is elected by the members of an electoral college that comprises the elected members of Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha and elected members of all legislative assemblies, including Delhi and Puducherry. Nominated members, whether of Parliament or legislative assemblies, are not included.

Value of vote for each of the members of the electoral college is decided based on the population census of 1971. Therefore, value of votes differs from state to state. The value of the vote of a legislator from Uttar Pradesh, the state with the largest population, is the highest at 208, while Sikkim’s is the lowest at 7.

The Modi government would hope to meet this shortfall of 70,000 votes by winning as many seats as possible in Uttar Pradesh. It would also need to compensate from UP the likely losses that the BJP and ally Shiromani Akali Dal could suffer in Punjab. A good showing in Uttar Pradesh would also deflate the Opposition and help Modi government strategists persuade fence sitters among the regional parties to vote for the ruling coalition's candidate.

Around 150-seats in UP would deliver BJP 31,200 votes in the presidential electoral college, while 100 seats would get it 20,800 seats in the electoral college.

To get the rest of the votes, the Modi government strategists can then reach out to such potential allies as the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). The AIADMK has a total of 50 seats (37 in Lok Sabha and 13 in Rajya Sabha) in Parliament - a total value 35,400 votes. In addition, its 135 legislators in the Tamil Nadu assembly have a total electoral college value of 23,760.

The presidential poll, to elect the successor to incumbent Pranab Mukherjee, are due by July. Several possible successors have been talked about in the media and among party circles. These include senior leader Murli Manohar Joshi, Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, or Dalit faces like Social Justice and Empowerment Minister Thawarchand Gehlot and academician Narendra Jadhav.

But much would depend on the results to the five assembly polls – whether the Modi government can push through its nominee or forced to go for a consensus candidate.

Presidential Electoral College

Total MLAs 4120

Total value of votes of MLAs 549,474

Total MPs 776 (543 LS + 233 RS)

Total value of votes of MPs 5,49,408

(Value of each vote of MP = Total value of votes for the state  total members in Parliament = 549474776 = 708)

Grand total 4896 (4120+776) = (549,474 + 5,49,408) 1,098,882

Majority in presidential election 1,098,8822 = 549,441 (+ 1)

  House (total strength) Value of each vote BJP seats in the House BJP seats x value of votes = total value of BJP votes in the House NDA allies/potential allies
  Lok Sabha 543 708 283 (including Speaker) 708 x 283 = 200,364 54 seats x 708 = 38,232
  Rajya Sabha 233 708 56 708 x 56 = 39,648 18 seats x 708 = 12,744
1 Jammu and Kashmir 72 25 72 x 25 = 1,800 PDP 28 seats x 72 = 2,016
2 Haryana 112 47 112 x 47 = 5,264 -
3 Himachal Pradesh 51 26 51 x 26 = 1,326 -
4 Delhi 58 3 58 x 3 = 174 -
5 Rajasthan 129 163 129 x 163 = 21,027 -
6 Gujarat 147 115 147 x 115 = 16,905 -
7 Maharashtra 175 122 175 x 122 = 21,350 Shiv Sena 63 seats x 175 = 11,214
8 Karnataka 131 40 131 x 40 = 5,240 -
9 Kerala 152 1 152 x 1 = 152 -
10 Tamil Nadu 176 0 0  
11 Andhra Pradesh (including Telangana) 148 9 148 x 9 = 1,332 TDP 116 + TRS 63 x 148 =26,492
12 Madhya Pradesh 131 165 131 x 165 = 21,615
13 Chhattisgarh 129 49 129 x 49 = 6,321
14 Odisha 149 10 149 x 10 = 1,490
15 West Bengal 151 3 151 x 3 = 453
16 Jharkhand 176 35 176 x 35 = 6,160 5
17 Bihar 173 53 173 x 53 = 9,169 5
18 Assam 116 60 116 x 60 = 6,960 AGP 14 + BPF 12 x 116 = 3,016
19 Arunachal Pradesh 8 47 8 x 47 = 376
20 Sikkim 7 0 0 SDF 22 x 7 = 154
21 Tripura 26 0 0  
22 Nagaland 9 1 9 x 1 = 9  
23 Mizoram 8 0 0  
24 Meghalaya 17 0 0  
25 Pondicherry 16 0 0  
26 Manipur* 18 0 0  
27 Goa* 20 21 20 x 21 = 420
28 Uttarakhand* 64 31 64 x 31 = 1,984
29 Punjab* 116 12 116 x 12 = 1,392 SAD 56 x 116 = 6,496
30 Uttar Pradesh* 208 47 208 x 47 = 9,776
    - - Total BJP votes = 380,707 Total allies vote = 100,364
Grand Total     380,707 + 100,364 = 481,071

 
Note: Party strengths calculated according to the seat tally at the time of the latest assembly election in any given state, and does not incorporate later changes.
 
*Seat shares in Manipur, Goa, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh are set to change after the ongoing assembly polls in these states.
 
Source: Election Commission of India
Connect with us on WhatsApp

Also Read

150 seats in UP and AIADMK support crucial for Modi govt to win prez polls

Assembly polls 2017: Key dates to remember

Election watchdog to watch UP Police during 2017 polls

All roads lead to eastern Uttar Pradesh

Uttar Pradesh and its 'powerless' CM

First Published: Mar 01 2017 | 9:30 AM IST

Explore News