All the three key players in Uttar Pradesh politics, BJP, Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance and Bahujan Samaj Party are eyeing significant gains in the region often dubbed as Poorvanchal as the player who scores high here gets to govern the state. Big names in UP politics like Prime Minister Narendra Modi, UP chief minister Akhilesh Yadav, SP veteran Mulayam Singh, BSP chief Mayawati and Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi may not be contesting the assembly elections but are trying hard to maximise their influence in the crucial eastern region which goes to polls in the last two phases on March 4 and 8, respectively.
Eastern UP profile
The area’s population density is high, around 1000 persons per km as compared to 928 persons per km for the entire state.
The area is dubbed as backward due to its low economic profile, but the voters are considered to be politically aware. Other backward classes like Yadavs and Kurmis, Brahmins and Muslims are considered key voters here. The party scoring high here gets to govern the state.
As the region’s economy is mostly agrarian, youth migrate to other states as there is no industry to provide jobs. The SP claims roads and power supply has improved under CM Akhilesh Yadav but acknowledges a lot remains to be done.
There are 49 assembly seats in phase VI and 40 in phase VII polling, comprising Maharajganj, Kushinagar, Gorakhpur, Deoria, Azamgarh, Ballia, Ghazipur, Varanasi, Mirzapur, Bhadohi, Sonbhadra and Jaunpur districts.
SP on a strong wicket, hopes for a repeat of 2012
The party won a major share of around 60 assembly seats in the area in the 2012 assembly polls and hopes to repeat the feat with a little help from ally Congress, which had won around five seats.
After the 2014 national elections, SP’s founder patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav retained his Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat and dropped the Mainpuri seat, his bastion, to send a message to the minorities who form the core of his Muslim-Yadav support base across the state.
In the summer of 2016, Mulayam pardoned his long-time friend Beni Prasad Verma, who had left the SP to join the Congress in 2009, and re-inducted him into the party to tap into the Kurmi votes. Verma is considered to command influence on Kurmi voters in around half a dozen seats in the area. Rahul Gandhi had made him a union minister in the UPA government for the same reason, but he turned out to be a liability.
Congress banking on alliance partner
The Congress could win only five seats in the area in 2012 polls and is banking heavily on alliance partner SP for a good show. Rahul Gandhi had started his September 2016 Kisan Yatra from Deoria in eastern UP, and later conducted rallies in Bahraich and Jaunpur to mobilise support against the note ban that was imposed in early November.
“Eastern UP usually decides who gets to form the government in the state,” senior leader and former union minister RPN Singh told Business Standard.
Singh, a Kurmi leader belongs to erstwhile royal family of Padrauna in Kushinagar, where the Congress had won two seats.
According to bureaucrat-turned-politician PL Punia, who was chief secretary when Mayawati was chief minister, but joined the Congress post-retirement, the alliance has an upper hand and the BSP may not be able to win over the minorities.
Before the elections, Congress in-charge of UP affairs, Ghulam Nabi Azad had extensively toured the area to woo the Muslims.
BJP hopes to consolidate non-Yadav OBC, upper caste voters
Banking heavily on the image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP hopes to further consolidate upper caste and non-Yadav OBC voters to gain in eastern UP. Given the political significance of the area, Modi had contested the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat in the 2014 national elections and retained it while dropping the Vadodara seat in his home state Gujarat. The BJP hopes Gorakhpur Lok Sabha member Yogi Adityanath’s fiery speeches will help tilt the balance in the party’s favour.
BSP chief Mayawati counting on the Dalit-Muslim combination
The BSP, which won around 20 seats in the area in 2012, has given several tickets to Muslim candidates. Mayawati will pin her hopes on Ghazipur-based don Mukhtar Ansari inducted by her to win over the Muslims in the region, which can make or mar her chances.