With gruelling elections in five states, including Uttar Pradesh, now over, the popular discourse has now shifted to predicting the poll results, which anyhow would be out in the open today.
While most exit polls have accorded the edge in poll outcome to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), barring Punjab, the results nonetheless would be analysed in the context of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
BJP’s biggest mass leader to date, Modi had crisscrossed the poll-bound states of UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur, over the last two months to consolidate the party’s core votes. However, he had invested maximum energies in the crucial state of UP, which returns 403 legislators to the state assembly.
Although Modi was not a candidate himself, the polls were largely played on the theme of ‘Modi versus all’ in all these states, especially UP.
In the backdrop of demonetisation, the polls are being seen as virtual referendum on Modi’s three-year rule at the Centre and the impact of the demonetisation decision.
BJP has swept all the local bodies polls held across the states after demonetisation, which implied that the majority of people had stood up for the purported anti-corruption move and that the perception of Modi’s personal integrity was uncompromised.
BJP win in these polls would surely elevate Modi’s aura, yet a few setbacks are unlikely to diminish his stature though. As widely projected, BJP would considerably improve its 2012 tally of 2012 in UP.
In Punjab, although the BJP-SAD combine is facing a possible rout, primarily due to SAD’s deteriorating perception and drug menace, the unfolding development would be a blessing in disguise for BJP to pitchfork its individual path in future elections.
Without doubt, Modi today stands as the tallest national political leader. Congress president Sonia Gandhi stayed away from public glare in these polls and is unlikely to resume his active political role, purportedly due to ill health.
Besides, there is a dearth of politicians, both in BJP and opposition parties, to match up to Modi and transcend the regional and language barriers in mass appeal. Modi’s oratory and communication skills, helped by his social media presence and personal rapport with leading global political figures, are only added bonuses.
In UP poll, Modi remained the main target of attack for the opposition, whether it was Congress, Samajwadi Party (SP) or Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).
All poll strategies were blueprinted around Modi. While, for BJP, he was the mascot, for Opposition he was the main stumbling block. Any which way, Modi was the common denominator for both camps, which further hyped and over-hyped his persona.
If one analysed election speeches of top leaders, the reference to ‘Modi’ would clock the largest frequency of usage, whether for praise or vilification.
Naysayers notwithstanding, the euphemistic ‘Modi wave’ is alive and contains enough firepower to last several many elections to come.