Congress' UP vision, and what angers SP rank and file

The Dalits, which are 20 per cent of the Uttar Pradesh electorate, and Muslims, which are 19 per cent, comprised the bedrock of the Congress support base in Uttar Pradesh, which in the post-Mandal/Mandir phase slipped away from the Congress after the early 1990s. The Congress, therefore, is eyeing to reclaim that support base in the years to come. Senior Congress leaders handling the Uttar Pradesh elections and its team of strategists are confident that the party would win a minimum of 40-50 seats it is contesting.

The Congress, which had contested nearly all the 403 seats in the elections in 2002 and 2007 elections, and contested 355 seats in 2012, has failed to cross the 30 seat mark in the last 15 years. Its vote share has hovered around the 9-10 per cent mark in the last decade and a half. The party believes that the alliance would have performed more to the Congress' advantage if it was sewed up earlier than it did at the end of January.

"I won't say that the alliance was sewn up in jaldbaazi (hurry). But yes, it took time. It would have been better if it was done earlier," senior Congress leader Ashok Gehlot told this newspaper. Gehlot is currently in Lucknow and entrusted with coordinating with the Samajwadi Party to iron out the rough spots that have cropped up in the alliance. Recently, the Congress could convince the SP to withdraw its candidate in favour of the Congress candidate on the Varanasi Cantonment seat.

While Gehlot disagrees there are chinks in the SP-Congress alliance, at several place the Congress district level workers haven't been as keen in campaigning for the SP candidates. The alliance is more seamless wherever the bulk of the Congress workers are Muslims, particularly in urban areas like Kanpur and in western Uttar Pradesh.

"It's difficult for us to go sit in SP offices. We don't get along with the SP rank and file," said a 50-year-old Congress worker in Kanpur pointing out the long history of SP's 'anti-Congressism'. The fly in the ointment is again caste, with Congress' Brahmin support base and workers unwilling to work for SP candidates.

The Samajwadi Party workers also have a series of complaints. Both Mulayam Singh Yadav and Shivpal Yadav opposed Akhilesh Yadav's intent to ally with the Congress. "They felt Akhilesh was selling family silver, and that SP lost much and gained little, while it was win-win for the Congress," Lucknow based journalist Rameshwar Pandey, who has been tracking the SP for over two decades, says.

Political observers are also of the view that Akhilesh Yadav and Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi missed a trick by keeping the Rashtriya Lok Dal, and its young leader Jayant Chaudhary, out of the alliance. "It could have led to a sweep of the alliance in western UP," Pandey said. Congress leaders agree with this assessment. The party had allied with Ajit Singh's party in 2012 assembly polls, and could have benefitted from the anger of the Jats against the Bharatiya Janata Party.

The SP leadership is also peeved at Priyanka Gandhi Vadra not agreeing to campaign with Dimple Yadav, Akhilesh Yadav's wife. There is a sense within the SP that the Congress first family reneged on a promise. The silver lining in this was how Dimple Yadav emerged as a good communicator and has surprised many with her connect with the people.

But SP leadership also points out that Rahul Gandhi is no vote catcher in Uttar Pradesh and is riding on the back of Akhlesh Yadav's popularity among people, particularly the youth. "Travel across Uttar Pradesh and you will find nobody talking about Rahul Gandhi. Congress has brought nothing to the alliance," said a second rung SP leader. Not all in the SP, however, agree to this. Another SP leader said the coming of the Congress with the SP convinced the minorities to stay with the alliance, or they could have drifted towards the BSP.