Can India match China's aircraft carrier numbers? Rajnath Singh answers

Chinese Navy is in the beginning stages of operating a 'multi-carrier force', warns the Pentagon's 2023 annual report on China's military power

India will soon commence building its third aircraft carrier and has plans to make "five or six more", Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said on Tuesday, days after China's third and latest aircraft carrier, the Fujian, completed its maiden test voyage.

Singh made these remarks in reference to the pending Indian Navy proposal to build another indigenous aircraft carrier that will be of the same size as the INS Vikrant, which weighs 45,000 tonnes and was commissioned in September 2022. In January last year, the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence had also suggested the need for a third aircraft carrier, noting that their reach and flexibility was "far superior to military airfields in far-flung island territories".

While Indian military planners have projected the need for having three carriers for some time now, the defence minister's comments to The Tribune provide an indication of the country's long-term carrier building plans. “We will not stop at that (three aircraft carriers). We will make five, six more," Rajnath told the English daily.

However, the defence minister did not provide a timeline for when construction on these future carriers would start. No details were provided on their size or design either -- whether they would be conventionally powered like India's current carriers or nuclear powered.

Given the cost and the time taken to design, build, outfit and operationalise a carrier, it is also unlikely that the Indian Navy will operate a fleet of eight or nine carriers at the same time. Some of these future ships, if built, will likely replace the navy's existing carrier fleet. 

At present, the Indian Navy operates two 45,000-tonne aircraft carriers, the INS Vikramaditya and the INS Vikrant. Both are conventionally-powered carriers that use ski-jump ramps to assist aircraft takeoffs. The INS Vikrant, India's first indigenous carrier, has been constructed by Cochin Shipyard Ltd, while the INS Vikramditya was bought from Russia and operationally deployed in 2014.

What about China's aircraft carrier plans? 

The defence minister's remarks could indicate a new carrier construction target for India, which could help the Indian Navy keep pace with what experts project to be China's "multi-carrier force" plan. 

China has the resources required to field up to five aircraft carriers by 2030, according to a 2022 report by US think tank Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment. The 'China's Choices' report on Beijing's ongoing military expansion also found that "the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has the resources necessary to continue its modernisation over the 2020s". 

"The People's Republic of China (PRC) is in the beginning stages of operating what the PLA calls its 'multi-carrier force'," warned the 'Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China 2023' report by the US Department of Defense. 

The Pentagon's 2023 annual report on China’s military power estimates that the size of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is more than 370 ships, making it the largest navy in the world, while the US Navy has a combat-ready fleet of 291.

However, according to globalfirepower.com, a total of 21 aircraft carriers are in operation around the world, with the US alone accounting for 11. 

Keeping pace with China's carrier building capacity will be a challenge for India, given that a declassified intelligence slide from the US Office of Naval Intelligence estimates that China has 232 times the shipbuilding capability of even the US. 

China has indeed been putting this shipbuilding capability to good use. On May 8, China's third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, returned after completing its eight-day maiden test voyage, with Chinese experts saying that this marked a concrete step towards its commissioning. 

China currently operates two conventionally-powered, ski-jump ramp aircraft carriers, the 60,000 tonne-class Liaoning and Shandong. Unlike its predecessors, the 80,000 tonne-class Fujian is equipped with three electromagnetic catapults to launch aircraft.

   

While the Fujian is considerably larger than carriers made by the United Kingdom (UK), France, and India, it is still conventionally powered. Meanwhile, all US Navy carriers and France's Charles de Gaulle carrier are nuclear powered. 

However, the Chinese Communist Party's official mouthpiece reported in March that China would unveil its fourth aircraft carrier soon, while speculating that there was a chance that it could be nuclear powered.

China’s third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, during its maiden sea trials. Photo credit: Xinhua

China is building larger, advanced carriers 

The Fujian's catapults, which are powered by an electromagnetic system similar to that of the US Navy's Gerald R Ford-class carrier, are more advanced than the ski-jump mechanism used by Indian and other Chinese carriers. They also represent a technological leapfrogging over the steam-powered catapults used in past US carriers.

While the Fujian's larger size means it can carry a more robust airwing, including fixed-wing airborne early warning (AEW) aircraft, its electromagnetic catapults enable it to launch heavier aircraft and to do so more efficiently. A catapult launch also means Fujian's jets will be able to carry heavier payloads. Once operational, the Fujian will be able to deploy up to 70 aircraft, including J-15 fighter aircraft.

However, the Fujian is smaller than the US Navy's Gerald R Ford-class carrier, which has a displacement of 100,000 tonnes and can carry over 75 aircraft.

The measure of a carrier's power is its air wing, with these ships being capable of carrying roughly one aircraft for each 1,000 tonnes of displacement. Both the Vikramaditya and Vikrant can carry 25-30 fixed wing aircraft, along with 10 helicopters. Given that India's third aircraft carrier will be of the same size as INS Vikrant, it will likely have a similar air wing size.

India had previously planned to build a 65,000-tonne third carrier, which would have had an air wing comprising 54 fighters. Deliberations had also taken place on making this proposed ship, called indigenous aircraft carrier-2 (IAC-2), nuclear powered and equipping it with electromagnetic catapults.

If China's fourth carrier does turn out to be nuclear powered, it would represent another technological leapfrogging for the PLAN, which will then join the US Navy in operating a 'supercarrier', an informal term used to describe larger and more advanced carriers.

(With inputs from Ajai Shukla)