 "Pakistan Army can't afford China's expensive security demand. What is it?")
Beijing is not impressed with Islamabad's efforts to protect Chinese nationals working in Pakistan and provide security for China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects, despite Pakistani law-enforcement agencies completing the investigation into the Dasu terrorist attack.
The attack, carried out by the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in March, killed five Chinese nationals.
Unsatisfied by the Pakistani response so far, China wants Pakistan to carry out a large-scale anti-terrorism operation, similar to the two-year long 'Operation Zarb-e-Azb' launched by Pakistani armed forces in June 2014, against militants that have been targeting Chinese nationals in the country, according to a piece by security analyst Muhammad Amir Rana published by Pakistani publication Dawn on Sunday.
The report about the Chinese demand comes just two days ahead of Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's five-day visit to China on June 4, during which Pakistan and China could seek to upgrade cooperation under the multi-billion dollar CPEC project.
Facing a deep economic crisis, Pakistan is likely to find such a demand daunting, given the human and financial cost of Operation Zarb-e-Azb.
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Large-scale op will cost Pakistan billions
Marking the second anniversary of Operation Zarb-e-Azb in June 2016, the Pakistani army said that 490 Pakistani soldiers and 3,500 militants had been killed during the two-year long operation.
Operation Zarb-e-Azb was launched on June 15, 2014, by the Pakistani military to clear Pakistan's North Waziristan Agency of al-Qaeda-linked militants.
In January 2017, security analyst Maria Saifuddin Effendi, from the National Defence University of Islamabad, revealed that the Zarb-e-Azb operation had cost the Pakistani military $1.9 billion.
Meanwhile, in June 2016, a Pakistani military spokesperson claimed that Pakistan had suffered $107 billion of financial losses due to militancy in the region since the 9/11 attacks against the United States.
Reeling from a severe economic crisis for more than two years, cash-strapped Pakistan can ill-afford another large-scale anti-terrorism operation along the lines of Zarb-e-Azb.
On April 29, the Pakistani Ministry of Finance and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that the lender had approved the "immediate disbursement" of a $1.1-billion tranche that completed the total $3-billion loan agreed to under a deal inked in 2023.
In June last year, Pakistan was able to avoid a sovereign default when it secured the IMF bailout.
At the end of April, Pakistan's external debt obligations stood at over $130 billion.
However, Pakistan has a history of launching security operations at the behest of China.
The Dawn article from Sunday pointed out that the 2007 Lal Masjid operation in Islamabad was launched after then Chinese President Hu Jintao called Pervez Musharraf, the then President of Pakistan. China called for the operation because women students of the Jamia Hafsa madressah had reportedly kidnapped Chinese health workers.
According to the report, the Pakistani military launched Operation Zarb-e-Azb in 2014 in part due to International pressure, including from China.
However, the Dawn report says that China's latest demand for a large-scale counter-terrorism operation may not be feasible because the TTP and its affiliates are operating out of Afghanistan.
A Pakistani cross-border operation could trigger a major conflict in the region, warns the report, adding that the insurgency in Balochistan, which has also targeted CPEC projects, needs to be handled with care. A "misadventure" could lead to "heavy political and security costs" for Pakistan, according to the report.
Why is China upset with Pakistan?
China's reported demand for a major counter-terrorism operation reflects its concerns over the increasing threats to Chinese nationals working on CPEC-related projects in Pakistan and its investments in the country.
Beijing has even asked Islamabad to allow it to deploy its own personnel in Pakistan to provide security for the 1,200 Chinese workers in the country, said Ayesha Siddiqa, a senior fellow with the Department of War Studies of King’s College London, while writing for Nikkei Asia in April.
According to Siddiqa, Pakistan had not agreed to this demand as of late April. Previously, Siddiqa was the director of naval research for the Pakistan Navy.
Clearly, Beijing is not satisfied by the performance of the new 12,000-strong Pakistani army and naval units that were created in 2016 to protect CPEC projects.
The CPEC project is a $50-billion Pakistani component of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The 3,000-kilometre Chinese infrastructure network project is under construction in Pakistan and aims to connect its ports in Gwadar and Karachi to China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region by land.
Over the years, CPEC has faced numerous setbacks, including security threats. At least three high-profile attacks targeting CPEC-related workers, projects or locations have already occurred this year.
On March 26, the TTP attacked a convoy of Chinese nationals travelling from Islamabad to the Dasu Hydropower Project site in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, killing five Chinese nationals.
China condemned the attack on the engineers who were working on the CPEC project and demanded a "thorough investigation".
Pakistan immediately formed a joint investigation team, comprising personnel from the police and intelligence agencies, to address China's concerns regarding the capability of Pakistani agencies to probe high-profile terrorist attacks.
The Pakistani government also announced a compensation of $2.5 million for the families of the five Chinese nationals who were killed in the attack.
On May 7, a spokesperson for the Pakistani military alleged that the March 26 attack was planned in and controlled from Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, adding that cross-border terrorism from Afghanistan was continuing despite Pakistan's "vital" role for peace in the neighbouring country.
Towards the end of May, Pakistani authorities arrested 11 TTP militants who were involved in the March attack.
The Dasu incident came after an uptick in attacks against targets related to CPEC.
On March 26, a paramilitary soldier belonging to Pakistan's Balochistan Frontier Corps was killed, along with four militants from the Balochistan Liberation Army's (BLA's) Majeed Brigade, in an attack on the Pakistani naval base PNS Siddique in Balochistan province's Turbat.
Located in Balochistan's Turbat city, PNS Siddique is Pakistan's second largest naval air station and one of its core functions is to provide support to the CPEC project.
Before the attack on PNS Siddique, militants attacked the Gwadar Port Authority Complex in March. The BLA claimed that its Majeed Brigade carried out the attack, in which two Pakistani soldiers and eight militants were killed.
The March 20 attack on the Gwadar Port Authority Complex saw heavy gunfire exchange and explosions. The Gwadar Port is the cornerstone of the CPEC project.
What's at stake for Pakistan?
Pakistan is urgently seeking investments from friendly nations. For their part, these countries want a fully secure environment for their investments.
Apart from China, Saudi Arabia also has similar security concerns regarding its investments in Pakistan, according to Dawn.