In second term, Trump may intensify focus on illegal immigration, Quad

New areas of cooperation under Biden such as critical and emerging technologies to remain

In his second term as the US President, Donald Trump is expected to maintain an unwavering focus on curbing illegal immigration, while his opposition to the H1-B visa regime may be less pronounced, foreign policy experts reckon.

 

Trump’s presidency is also expected to strengthen certain multilateral initiatives such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which include India, former diplomats said.

 

“All countries are keen to get highly qualified immigrants. Illegal immigrants will be the main focus (under Trump),” Neelam Deo, retired Ambassador and co-founder of foreign policy think-tank Gateway House said.

 

The H1-B visa allows US employers to temporarily hire foreign workers for specialty occupations that require a bachelor's degree or higher for filling high-skilled jobs.

 

During Trump's first term, there were efforts to limit the H-1B visa programme through stricter eligibility requirements and enhanced application reviews.

 

He has expressed his reservations towards the H-1B visa, describing them as "very bad" and "unfair" to US workers. Indians have historically been the largest recipients of the visa.

 

Meanwhile, New Delhi may need to work with Washington DC on the issue of Indians having become among the largest groups of illegal immigrants apprehended at the US southern border, Rajiv Bhatia, a former ambassador and distinguished fellow at Gateway House, explained.

 

American foreign policy on India will also be coloured by the new administration's multifaceted focus on Asia, including through the four-nation Quad grouping. "We have to remember our recent history. Quad got the first fillip under President Trump when the first meeting of the foreign ministers of Quad nations took place. Once the new administration settles down, they will start work on strengthening the partnership," Bhatia said. 

 

India will be hosting the next Quad Leaders’ Summit in 2025.

 

Officially, the Quad was conceived in 2017 by the US, India, Japan and Australia as a space to cooperate for safeguarding shared security and other interests in the Indo-Pacific region. However, observers have pointed out that the forum's main objective is to counter China’s military and economic rise in the same waters.

 

In 2022, incumbent US President Joe Biden launched the 14-nation Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) bloc that aims to keep supply chains free of disruptions and frame trade rules, including for data localisation, e-commerce, and labour standards. Experts remain divided over whether Trump, known for his isolationist rhetoric may continue to support the initiative.

 

However, new areas of cooperation opened up under Biden such as the US-India initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) framework will remain a key facet of bilateral relations, Bhatia said. 

 

Trump may seek to give his own touch to the framework, which has been a brainchild of the Joe Biden administration.

 

In Asia, Trump is expected to be preoccupied with trade tariffs, and India would need to keep its eyes on the new administration's policies on foreign trade, and especially tariffs on inbound goods from China, Deo, who has earlier served as India's Consul General in New York, said.

  

She said that while the US is expected to continue backing the 'China-plus one' business strategy, which has led to slow diversion of investments into Vietnam, and Bangladesh. 

 

Gaining credence after the pandemic, the strategy calls for US businesses to avoid making investments only in China, instead channeling funds into manufacturing in other promising developing economies such as India. 

 

"He (Trump) is more unpredictable. The policies announced by his administration are implemented faster," she stressed.

 

With regards to the personal equation between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump, diplomats are hopeful.

 

"Our Prime Minister has shown in the past two terms that he is able to build relationships with world leaders. President Trump has also recently released a statement on Hindus in Bangladesh," she added.   

Road ahead  

Trump to strengthen a few multilateral initiatives like Quad, which include India, says former diplomats

In Asia, Trump to focus on trade tariffs, especially on inbound goods from China and India

US to continue the 'China-plus one' business strategy that led to investment diversion into Vietnam, and Bangladesh