 "From AUKUS to Philippines: This week's events will keep China on its toes")
China will keep a close watch on developments in Washington this week, which will see the start of discussions on expanding the AUKUS security pact to include Japan and the first US-Japan-Philippines trilateral summit.
Developments indicating growing cooperation between the US, its allies and the Philippines will be of particular interest to Beijing, which fears containment and is locked in a maritime dispute with Manila in the South China Sea.
While India will not be directly involved, in March, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar had said in Manila that India firmly supports the Philippines in upholding its national sovereignty. Jaishankar had added that India wants to explore new areas of cooperation, including in defence and security, with the Southeast Asian nation.
From AUKUS to 'JAUKUS'
The United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK) and Australia will reportedly begin discussions on bringing new members into their AUKUS security pact to deter China in the Indo-Pacific.
According to a Financial Times (FT) report that broke the news, the development comes amid Washington's push for Japan to be involved in the security pact.
Formed by the US, the UK and Australia in 2021, the AUKUS pact is part of their efforts to create a deterrent against China's growing power in the Indo-Pacific.
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China has reacted sharply to the security partnership, describing AUKUS as dangerous and warning that it could ignite an arms race in the region.
AUKUS defence ministers will reportedly announce on Monday that they will begin talks related to Pillar-II of the pact, which involves technology collaboration on developing hypersonic weapons and undersea capabilities.
However, the FT report says there is no prospect of expanding Pillar-I, which aims to arm Australia with nuclear-powered submarines.
The statement on the expansion is set to come just before US President Joe Biden hosts Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for a summit at the White House on Wednesday, which will be followed by the first US-Japan-Philippines trilateral meeting on Thursday.
In a move that will be closely watched by China, the US and Japan on Wednesday are also set to announce plans for what FT has described as "the biggest upgrade to their security alliance since 1960".
The proposed AUKUS expansion also comes at a time when Japan has been increasing its defence spending and developing hypersonic weapons.
In what appeared to be a public confirmation of the expansion, the US ambassador to Tokyo, Rahm Emanuel, recently said that Japan was slated to become the "first additional Pillar-II (AUKUS) partner".
US, Japan may agree to build ships and jets together
President Biden and PM Kishida are also set to agree on exploring closer cooperation between the American and Japanese defence industries at their April 10 summit in Washington.
According to Nikkei Asia, this cooperation will not be limited to just repairing the US Navy's ships at private Japanese shipyards. Instead, it will also look at joint development and production of weapons, aircraft and naval vessels in the future.
If successful, this could be the first step in Japan's increased integration into the US defence industrial base.
First US-Japan-Philippines trilateral
The US will add one more minilateral grouping of allies and partners to its arsenal, when President Biden will host Japanese PM Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr in Washington on April 11 for the first US-Japan-Philippines trilateral summit.
According to Nikkei Asia, the summit will aim to address China's 'gray zone' tactics, among other things.
Additionally, the leaders will reportedly seek to deepen economic ties amid tensions with Beijing.
The new trilateral, which does not have an announced name or acronym yet, will join the likes of the Quad grouping -- between India, the US, Japan, and Australia -- and the AUKUS pact.
In a related development, the Philippines, the US, Australia and Japan conducted their first-ever joint naval and air military drills in the disputed South China Sea on Sunday, even as China announced its own exercises in the strategic waterway.
China has been accused of trying to unilaterally change the status quo in the East China Sea and South China Sea by force.
Under its so-called nine dash line, China claims almost 90 per cent of the resource-rich South China Sea, with Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, and the Philippines having overlapping claims.
China has been accused of employing 'gray zone' tactics against some of these countries.
'Gray zone' tactics involve the use of coercion and even force, which falls short of declaring war. A nation state employing such tactics aims to use ambiguity and gradualism to achieve its goals.
It involves achieving a number of limited, separate goals over time, until the larger objective is achieved at the expense of the other nation.
This ambiguous state of provocation without war is meant to make the target nation think twice before responding to avoid escalation.
It is similar to the 'salami slicing' China employs at its border with India, and is reflected in China's maritime actions against the Philippines.
Beijing hits back
China has reacted to the joint naval exercises and the upcoming trilateral summit between the Philippines, the US and Japan by accusing the Philippines of fueling tensions in the South China Sea in recent months with the support of "some external forces".
An opinion piece, published on the Chinese People's Liberation Army's (PLA's) official English-language news website on Monday, says that "any activities disrupting the South China Sea situation" will "undermine regional peace and stability".
It goes on to say that by "inviting external forces into the fray", the Philippines is "undermining the established mechanisms for conflict resolution" and "sabotaging the efforts of China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to maintain peace and stability in the region".
Referring to the joint naval exercises and the upcoming trilateral summit, the opinion piece claims that the Philippines is "recklessly exploiting" these platforms to "solicit external support for its provocative actions".
It goes on to accuse these "external forces" of exploiting the Philippines in a bid to "contain China".