 "Gaza war anniversary: All the key players in the Israel-Palestine conflict")
Israel and Iran are standing at the brink of a broader regional war that could engulf all of West Asia (Middle East), even as the conflict in Gaza has completed a year.
On October 7 last year, Hamas, a Palestinian militant organisation, launched an attack on southern Israel, killing nearly 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages. Israel has since responded with significant counterstrikes targeting Hamas in Gaza.
In the aftermath of October 7, concerns emerged about the potential for a regional war. The prevailing thought was that the conflict would not remain confined to Gaza — Hezbollah might launch attacks on Israel from Lebanon in the north, the Houthis from Yemen, and Iranian-backed forces from Iraq. All of which would bring Israel to a direct confrontation with Iran, leading to a broader war.
Coinciding with the Gaza war's first anniversary, all these fears have materialised. Shiite militias within Iran's "Axis of Resistance" have launched attacks on Israel, including from Iraq and Yemen.
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As the potential for a broader regional conflict looms, the violence in Gaza continues with no sign of de-escalation. Over the past year, Israeli strikes on Gaza have led to the deaths of over 41,500 people, with close to 100,000 others injured.
Meanwhile, Iran last week (October 1) launched its second direct strike on Israel, launching over 200 ballistic missiles, even as Israeli troops battled Hezbollah on the ground in Lebanon.
The Palestinian territory, which includes the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem, has been under Israeli occupation since 1967. In July 2024, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued an advisory opinion stating that Israel's continued presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT) is unlawful. The ICJ asserted that Israel must swiftly end its presence, halt all new settlement activities immediately, and evacuate all settlers from the OPT. Various United Nations officials and investigative bodies have previously confirmed that Israel's prolonged occupation of Palestinian territory lacks legal validity and has led to de facto annexation, which could be considered a war crime.
As such, the Israel-Palestine conflict has spanned several decades, with numerous nations and organisations playing pivotal roles. Here's an overview of how the positions of some of these players have evolved over the years, along with their current stance on the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict:
Iran:
Let's start with Iran, which last week launched a direct attack on Israel, involving nearly 200 ballistic missiles.
Ironically, during the rule of Iran's final monarch, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Iran and Israel were allies.
However, relations broke down after the 1978-79 Islamic revolution in Iran, a Shia Muslim nation situated among predominantly Sunni Arab countries.
Subsequently, Iran severed all diplomatic and commercial connections with Israel. This division deepened into outright hostility after the 1991 Gulf War.
The years-long shadow war between Iran and Israel went hot in April this year, when the exchange of hostilities between the two marked their first direct military confrontation.
While Israel views Iran as its greatest threat because of Tehran's purported nuclear weapons programme and support for armed groups targeting Israel, Iran views itself as the chief backer of Palestinian resistance to Israel.
Iran has stated that last week's missile strike -- its second direct attack on Israel -- was in response to the deaths of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) General Abbas Nilforoushan, both of whom were killed in an Israeli airstrike at the end of September in Beirut. Iran also mentioned senior Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran in July in an alleged Israeli attack.
Hamas
This brings us to Hamas, the Sunni Palestinian militant group that is nonetheless a part of Iran's "Axis of Resistance".
Hamas is an Islamist militant organisation that emerged from the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood in late 1987, at the beginning of the first Palestinian intifada (uprising).
It gained control of the Gaza Strip after defeating its political rival, the secular Fatah party, in the 2006 elections. Hamas also challenged Fatah's leadership within the Palestinian nationalist movement.
Fatah is a Palestinian political faction founded in the 1950s, which was a long-dominant faction within the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO).
Several governments, including the United States (US) and the European Union (EU), have designated Hamas as a terrorist organisation due to its attacks on Israel.
Hamas' charter advocates for the creation of an Islamic Palestinian state in place of Israel and rejects all agreements made between the PLO and Israel. Hamas' influence is primarily concentrated in the Gaza Strip and parts of the West Bank.
PLO
This brings us to the PLO, which at one time was the centre of Palestinian resistance against Israel, even though it has played a limited role in the current conflict.
The PLO is an umbrella political entity that claims to represent Palestinians worldwide -- defined as Arabs and their descendants who resided in mandated Palestine before the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948.
Founded in 1964 to unify the leadership of various Palestinian groups, the PLO only gained prominence after the Six-Day War in June 1967. Subsequently, it was engaged in a prolonged guerrilla war against Israel throughout the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s.
However, in the 1990s, the PLO began peace negotiations with Israel.
Since then, the PLO has been the dominant political force within the Palestinian Authority (PA), which it established in 1994 in cooperation with Israel under the terms of the Oslo Accords.
Yasser Arafat served as chairman of the PLO from 1969 to 2004 and as president of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) from 1994 to 2004. He was also a founding member and leader of the Fatah political party from 1959 until his death.
Arafat participated in several key negotiations with the Israeli government to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, including the Madrid Conference in 1991, the 1993 Oslo Accords, and the 2000 Camp David Summit.
Despite these efforts, Fatah's influence among Palestinians waned with the rise of Hamas and other militant groups.
In 2004, after being effectively confined to his compound in Ramallah by the Israeli army for more than two years, Arafat fell into a coma and passed away.
Hezbollah and Lebanon
Lebanon is located to the north of Israel, sharing a southern border with the country. It lies along the eastern Mediterranean coast, with Syria to its east and north.
Israel has engaged in two wars with Lebanon. The first conflict took place in 1982 after Palestinian leaders were evacuated to Lebanon, while the second occurred in 2006 following the capture of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah militants.
Hezbollah, an Iran-backed organisation, is described by the American think tank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) as a "Shiite Muslim political party" and "militant group" that operates in Lebanon. The Center for Strategic and International Studies refers to Hezbollah as the "world's most heavily armed non-state actor."
The CFR outlines Hezbollah's agenda, stating that it "opposes Israel and Western powers" in West Asia and serves as "a proxy of Iran," its primary benefactor.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah maintains an extensive security apparatus, political organisation, and social services network, which the CFR says contributes to its reputation as "a state within a state."
Hezbollah originated from Lebanon’s fifteen-year civil war, which began in 1975. During this period, Israel invaded southern Lebanon to expel Palestinian fighters using the area as a base.
A Shiite group was formed in Lebanon to resist the Israeli occupation, and Iran, seeing a chance to extend its influence in the Arab world, provided financial support and training. This group eventually adopted the name Hezbollah, meaning "The Party of God."
While Hezbollah has been in conflict with Israel for decades, near-daily skirmishes have occurred on the Israel-Lebanon border after Hamas' October 7 attack.
At the beginning of October this year, Israeli troops advanced into Lebanon, launching a limited ground offensive.
Yemen's Houthis
While Hezbollah is the most heavily armed of Iran's proxies, a new Tehran-backed organisation has also gained prominence during the ongoing Gaza conflict.
The Houthis are a Shiite Muslim movement from Yemen, primarily representing the Zaidi Shia sect.
While they originated in the 1990s as a reaction to the marginalisation of Zaidis and the growing influence of Sunni ideologies, they first gained international prominence after rebelling against the Yemeni government and seizing the capital, Sana'a, in 2014.
Supported by Iran, the Houthis are a key member of the Iran-backed "Axis of Resistance".
In the ongoing Gaza conflict, the Houthis have expressed strong support for Hamas and the Palestinian cause, aligning themselves with other Iranian proxies like Hezbollah.
They have launched missile and drone attacks against southern Israel. Beyond this, the Houthis have also extended their involvement by targeting international shipping in the Red Sea, disrupting commercial vessel operations, after the start of the Gaza war.
Egypt
Closer to Israel, its neighbours have also been a part of the Israel-Palestine conflict, which dates back many decades, with flashpoints building up starting with the United Nations' 1947 initial UN Partition Plan.
After engaging in wars with Israel in 1948 (known as the War of Independence in Israel or the Nakba in the Arab world), 1956 (also called the Sinai War), 1967 (the Six-Day War), and 1973 (the Yom Kippur War), Egypt became the first Arab nation to formalise relations by signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.
The agreement resulted in what is frequently referred to as a "cold peace", where economic, cultural, and public interactions between the two nations remained limited and characterised by mutual suspicion.
Nevertheless, cooperation in the fields of energy and security has been significant, growing stronger under the leadership of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.
Both nations also maintain a blockade on Gaza starting in 2007, following Hamas's rise to power in the territory.
However, Egypt has expressed concern over Israel's military operations in Gaza, particularly the potential for the mass displacement of Palestinians into Egypt's Sinai Peninsula.
Egypt lies southwest of Israel, sharing a land border along the Sinai Peninsula, with the Mediterranean Sea to the north.
Egypt has increasingly adopted blunt rhetoric in criticising Israel's ongoing military campaign.
Jordan
Israel and Jordan also have a similarly complex relationship shaped by conflict, diplomacy, and cooperation.
The two countries also fought in three wars: in 1948, 1967 (when Israel captured the West Bank from Jordan), and 1973.
However, following Egypt, Jordan eventually became the second Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel in 1994.
The 1994 peace treaty normalised relations, resulting in cooperation in areas such as trade, water sharing, and security, although the peace has often been described as "cold" due to deep public mistrust in Jordan.
Jordan has also served as a key mediator in Israel-Palestine peace efforts, given its significant Palestinian population and custodianship of Islamic holy sites in Jerusalem.
Since the start of the Gaza war on October 7, relations have become strained, however. Jordan has strongly condemned Israel's military actions in Gaza, with King Abdullah II warning against the displacement of Palestinians into Jordan and criticising Israel's escalation.
Despite this, the peace treaty remains intact, and Jordan even reportedly helped Israel in defending against Iran's April missile and drone attack.
Jordan is located to the east of Israel, sharing a long border along the Jordan River and the Dead Sea.
Syria
Israel and the Syrian Arab Republic have been in a constant state of conflict since the former's founding in 1948, with their most notable direct military engagements occurring in the First Arab–Israeli War (1948–1949), the Third Arab–Israeli War (1967), and the Fourth Arab–Israeli War (1973).
The Golan Heights, viewed by the United Nations as Syrian land, has been occupied by Israel since 1967.
Syria is located to the northeast of Israel, sharing a border in the Golan Heights region and near the Sea of Galilee.
Additionally, both nations fought extensively during the Lebanese Civil War and the 1982 Lebanon War.
Syria has never recognised Israel as a legitimate state and does not accept Israeli passports for entry. Israel similarly views Syria as a hostile nation and restricts its citizens from travelling there.
While armistice agreements have been signed at various times, efforts to establish lasting peace have consistently failed. Moreover, since their respective formations, Israel and Syria have not established formal diplomatic relations.
Iraq
Iraq has not recognised Israel as a legitimate state since the latter's founding in 1948, resulting in no formal diplomatic relations between the two nations. Iraq was part of the Arab coalition that declared war on Israel shortly after its establishment, sparking the First Arab–Israeli War. Iraqi forces also participated in the Third and Fourth Arab–Israeli Wars in 1967 and 1973.
During the Gulf War of 1990–1991, Iraq launched modified Scud missiles at Israeli cities. Even after the regime change in 2003, the Republic of Iraq continues to support the Arab League's boycott of Israel. Iraqi passports are invalid for travel to Israel, and Israeli passports are likewise banned for entry into Iraq. For its part, Israel classifies Iraq as a hostile state.
After the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, Iraq did not condemn the assault, instead voicing support for the Palestinian cause. Across different eras – the Hashemite monarchy (1921–58), military-led republics (1958–68), Ba'ath Party rule (1968–2003), and the post-2003 period – successive Iraqi governments have consistently supported the Palestinian cause.
Türkiye
Türkiye, being the first Muslim-majority nation to recognise Israel in 1949, shortly after the founding of the Israeli state, had a long history of partnership with Israel.
Despite some minor frictions caused by the Israeli-Arab conflicts during the Cold War, Israel-Türkiye relations remained generally positive following the fall of the erstwhile Soviet Union.
At first, even the rise of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Türkiye at the turn of the century did not seem to disrupt the cordial relations between the two nations.
However, by the time Hamas launched its unexpected assault on October 7, Türkiye and Israel were in the midst of a reconciliation process after more than a decade of turbulent relations.
During this period, relations at times fell to such lows that it nearly amounted to a severing of ties. Relations plummeted primarily due to the 2010 Gaza flotilla incident and Türkiye's strong support for the Palestinian cause, particularly under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government.
Since the current Gaza war erupted, Türkiye has sharply criticised Israel's military actions. Türkiye has expressed concern over the humanitarian situation in Gaza and condemned Israel's military response, accusing Israel of committing atrocities.
In particular, President Erdogan has strongly condemned Israel's actions, calling for an immediate ceasefire and humanitarian assistance to Gaza.
Gulf States
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman, have historically had complicated relations with Israel, primarily due to their opposition to Israel's occupation of Palestinian territories.
For decades, GCC countries did not formally recognise Israel and refrained from establishing diplomatic ties. However, behind-the-scenes engagements, particularly regarding security and shared concerns over Iran, began shaping quieter interactions over time.
In 1996, Qatar and Oman became the first Gulf nations to initiate trade relations with Israel by establishing trade offices in their capitals. However, formal talks were avoided due to the broader Arab sentiment towards Israel.
Until 2009, Qatar maintained diplomatic and financial ties with Israel. However, the relations were severed following Operation Cast Lead, a 2008-2009 Israeli military offensive in Gaza, which led Qatar to suspend its ties.
Despite this, Qatar has played an active mediating role, facilitating dialogue between Israel and Hamas, especially in Gaza.
Oman has not officially recognised Israel as a state, making it clear that formal ties will only be established once a sovereign Palestinian state is recognised. Nevertheless, informal connections between the two countries exist.
The Abraham Accords in 2020 marked a turning point, with the UAE and Bahrain normalising relations with Israel, followed by Morocco and Sudan. This shift introduced new avenues for cooperation.
While Oman and Qatar maintain more limited engagement with Israel, Saudi Arabia has yet to establish formal ties with Tel Aviv.
However, Saudi Arabia has shown some signs of a possible deeper engagement in the future, by engaging in indirect dialogues and allowing Israeli flights over its airspace.
The ongoing conflict in Gaza has the potential to upset Israel's growing ties with GCC states, having already reportedly cooled Israeli business activity with the UAE.
According to a Reuters report, the once-celebrated relationship is now being conducted away from public scrutiny due to anger in the Arab world over the conflict.