 "Gaza war to Ukraine nuclear fears: Conflicts that shaped 2024 geopolitics")
The year 2024 was marked by the escalation of long-standing conflicts and the resolution of a major geopolitical impasse. These developments exposed the fragility of the global rules-based order, reignited nuclear fears, and tested the resilience of international alliances.
From the intensifying wars in Ukraine and Gaza to the surprising overthrow of Syria’s Assad regime, global geopolitics faced unprecedented turbulence. Adding to this complexity was Donald Trump’s re-election as US President, a development that injected fresh unpredictability into international relations.
Ukraine war: Escalation and nuclear fears
The Ukraine war, nearing its third anniversary, reached a critical juncture in 2024. Both Ukraine and Russia faced resource exhaustion, and the possibility of nuclear escalation loomed large.
President-elect Donald Trump vowed to prioritise ending the conflict through negotiations. However, his campaign rhetoric suggested concessions to Russia, raising concerns about the fate of Ukrainian sovereignty. Trump’s diplomatic approach is set to be tested, especially as European allies brace for reduced US support under his administration.
Meanwhile, recent military escalations further stoked nuclear fears. Ukraine struck Russian regions, while Russia retaliated with Oreshnik hypersonic missiles, marking the first use of intermediate-range ballistic missiles in combat.
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Gaza war: Genocide allegations and devastation
The Israel-Gaza conflict, which erupted in October 2023, claimed over 45,000 Palestinian lives by December 2024, with women and children accounting for more than half the casualties. Accusations of genocide against Israel gained momentum, with organisations like Amnesty International and the UN highlighting evidence of intent to destroy Gaza’s population.
Israel, citing self-defence, continued relentless offensives while rejecting allegations of genocide. The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, accusing them of war crimes.
Failed ceasefires and the displacement of over 85 per cent of Gaza’s population have underscored the international community’s inability to mediate an end to the conflict.
Israel-Iran tensions: Cold war turns hot
Tensions between Israel and Iran boiled over in 2024, leading to direct military confrontation for the first time.
• April 14: Iran launched hundreds of missiles at Israel, prompting limited Israeli retaliation.
• October 1: A second Iranian missile strike killed key leaders, triggering a decisive Israeli counterstrike on October 26.
The exchanges marked a dangerous shift from proxy warfare to open conflict, with fears of a broader war spreading across West Asia.
Fall of Assad: Syria’s balance of power shifts
On December 8, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fled the country after rebels captured Damascus, ending nearly five decades of authoritarian rule by the Assad family. The collapse of Assad’s regime weakened Russia and Iran, key allies that had propped up his government since 2015.
Turkey emerged as a primary beneficiary, leveraging Assad’s fall to consolidate regional influence and curb Kurdish separatist movements. Meanwhile, Hezbollah, reliant on Iranian supply routes through Syria, faced operational setbacks in its conflict with Israel.
2025 and beyond: Fragile hopes for peace
As 2024 closes, global geopolitics remains volatile. The persistence of conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, coupled with the unpredictability of Trump’s foreign policy, will shape international relations in the coming year. Efforts to uphold the principles of the rules-based order continue to face significant challenges.