 "Trump's return to Hasina's fall: Upheavals India and the world saw in 2024")
India and the global community experienced a series of geopolitical upheavals in 2024, some unexpected and others rooted in long-standing conflicts, all poised to shape the trajectory of 2025.
Here are the four major geopolitical upheavals of 2024:
Trump returns to the White House with ‘America First’ in tow
Trump will officially become the 47th president of the US on January 20, 2025, having defeated his opponent, Vice-President Kamala Harris, on November 6 in a bitterly fought contest for the presidency.
Also Read
His second term is set to significantly influence US allies, including Nato members and neighbours like Canada, as well as adversaries such as Iran and competitors like China. India, which has developed a strong strategic partnership with Washington despite recent challenges, is also expected to see shifts.
Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda remained central to his campaign, characterised by an anti-immigration stance at home and what experts have described as protectionist and isolationist trade policies abroad.
Experts anticipate a tougher US approach towards China under Trump. While some Chinese analysts view his position on US alliances as beneficial to China’s long-term strategy, they also warn that his “unpredictability and maximum pressure tactics” could create significant short-term challenges.
The US-India Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership, bolstered by shared concerns over China, enjoys bipartisan support, making any major shift unlikely under Trump. Defence ties are expected to remain unaffected.
However, Trump’s re-election has raised concerns about a return to trade tensions, particularly after he labelled India a “very big (trade) abuser” during his campaign. His tariff policies, including a 60 per cent levy on Chinese imports and 10 per cent tariffs on imports from other countries, could disrupt India’s $75 billion exports to the US.
There are also fears that Trump’s second term could weaken the post-World War II international order. Analysts warn of reduced US commitments to Narto, diminished support for Ukraine against Russia, and pressure on Taiwan to navigate its own relations with China, creating uncertainties for allies.
Hasina ousted from Bangladesh, costing India a crucial ally
Sheikh Hasina resigned on August 5 following month-long student-led protests supported by the opposition. Her departure marks a major shift in India-Bangladesh relations, as Hasina’s 15-year tenure had seen unprecedented cooperation between the two nations.
Since 2009, Hasina prioritised strong bilateral ties with India, cracking down on terror camps, combating religious radicalisation, and extraditing fugitives. The historic 2015 Land Boundary Agreement resolved border disputes, and connectivity projects flourished, including rail, road, and river links.
Bangladesh under Hasina became a critical part of India’s regional connectivity initiatives and a key buyer of Indian energy, exemplified by recent Adani Group power deals.
However, Hasina’s increasingly authoritarian rule drew criticism. Following her exit, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus assumed interim leadership on August 8, raising concerns about the future of bilateral agreements and strategic ties.
Tensions escalated after attacks on minorities, particularly Hindus, and the arrest of Hindu monk Chinmoy Krishna Das sparked protests in India. On November 29, India’s Ministry of External Affairs urged the interim government to protect minorities.
Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri visited Dhaka on December 9, marking the first high-level engagement since Hasina’s ouster. The visit followed BNP-led protests outside the Indian High Commission and Dhaka’s removal of security clearances for Pakistani visa applicants, raising security concerns for India’s Northeast.
Fears of nuclear escalation grow in Ukraine, leaving the world on edge
The Ukraine conflict entered a dangerous new phase, raising global fears of nuclear escalation. On November 19, Ukraine used US-supplied ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory for the first time, marking the war’s 1,000th day.
Russia retaliated on November 21 with a historic missile strike on Dnipro, employing the Oreshnik hypersonic missile with multiple independently targeted warheads. This marked the missile’s first combat use.
In late November, Russian President Vladimir Putin approved changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for nuclear weapons use.
The missile exchanges escalated further on November 25, with Ukraine launching another ATACMS salvo into Russia’s critical military regions. Moscow framed these strikes as evidence of direct Western involvement, raising the conflict’s stakes.
While Trump’s electoral victory has sparked hopes for a ceasefire, the situation remains precarious, with implications for global security and India, which maintains close ties with both the West and Russia.
Assad flees Syria, leaving Russia and Iran in the lurch
On December 8, armed rebels seized control of Damascus, forcing President Bashar al-Assad to flee, ending five decades of Assad family rule.
Assad’s downfall weakens Russia and Iran, which had militarily supported his regime. Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ against Israel has been dealt a blow, cutting off supply routes to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Turkey, led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, emerged as a key beneficiary. Assad’s fall bolsters Turkey’s influence in Syria and strengthens its hand against Kurdish separatists.
The power vacuum left by Assad’s departure raises concerns about the resurgence of extremist groups like Islamic State (IS), posing security challenges for the region and beyond. For India, Assad’s regime had supported its stance on Kashmir in international forums, and his ouster creates fresh diplomatic challenges.