 "ICJ Gaza ruling: Why Israel fears another legal bombshell after ICC move")
Israel is preparing for the worst-case scenario after the International Court of Justice (ICJ) said it would rule on Friday on a South African request to order Israel to implement a ceasefire in Gaza, with Israeli media reporting that the country's officials believe that ICJ judges will at least partly accept the demand.
South Africa has petitioned the ICJ, the United Nations' (UN's) top court, for emergency measures to order Israel to "cease its military operations in the Gaza Strip", including in the far southern city of Rafah, where the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is pressing an offensive.
The ICJ's ruling will come just days after International Criminal Court (ICC) Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan said that he has applied for arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant for crimes against humanity in the ongoing Gaza war. In relation to the October 7 attacks on Israel that triggered the conflict, the ICC chief prosecutor is also seeking arrest warrants for three senior Hamas leaders.
Why is Israel bracing for the worst?
The Israeli government is preparing for the ICJ ruling and is concerned that it will include an order to either stop the IDF operation in Rafah or stop the war in Gaza altogether, multiple Israeli media outlets reported on Thursday.
Israeli officials believe that there is a low chance the ICJ will reject South Africa's request for ending hostilities, the Ynet news site reported.
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However, the devil is in the details. According to the same officials, there is a medium chance that the ICJ will accept South Africa's original demand to halt the war in the Gaza Strip entirely. The most likely outcome, according to them, is that the ICJ will focus its ceasefire order on Rafah. The officials reportedly believe there is a medium-to-high chance of the court taking this last route.
For months now, Israeli PM Netanyahu has vowed that regardless of a hostage release deal, Israel will eliminate the final Hamas strongholds in Rafah.
According to the Ynet report, there is also a high chance that the ICJ will issue orders to increase humanitarian aid to Gaza.
However, Israel does not intend to uphold such a ruling from the ICJ, Israel's Channel 12 reported, citing unnamed officials.
Speaking to Reuters ahead of the ICJ decision, an Israeli government spokesperson said that "no power on Earth will stop Israel from protecting its citizens and going after Hamas in Gaza".
The ICJ's rulings are binding, but the court has no power to enforce them. For example, the court has ordered Russia to halt its invasion of Ukraine, but to no avail.
Mounting international pressure
However, an ICJ ruling against Israel will increase the international legal pressure against the country, coming days after the ICC top prosecutor's decision to seek arrest warrants for top Israeli and Hamas leaders.
The ICC investigation is separate from the genocide case against Israel at the ICJ. While the ICJ deals with disputes between states, the ICC is a treaty-based criminal court that focuses on individual criminal responsibility.
The ICC is independent of the United Nations (UN), but is endorsed by the UN General Assembly. Meanwhile, the ICJ is an organ of the UN. Both are headquartered at The Hague in the Netherlands.
In another upset for Israel, Norway, Spain and Ireland on Wednesday announced that they will officially recognise Palestine as an independent state, breaking with the position that Western powers have maintained for a long time -- that a Palestinian state can only come about as part of a negotiated peace with Israel.
Rafah op in focus
In hearings at the ICJ last week, South Africa claimed that what it described as Israel's "genocide" in the Gaza Strip had hit a "new and horrific stage" with the IDF's assault on Rafah.
In response, lawyers representing Israel described South Africa's case as being "totally divorced" from reality. They added that the case was making a "mockery" of the 1948 UN Genocide Convention that Israel is accused of breaching.
Many civilians are sheltering in Rafah, the last part of Gaza facing an Israeli ground operation. However, Israel claims that it is also the site of Hamas' last major stronghold and has ordered mass evacuations from Rafah.
This is the fourth time that South Africa has appealed to the ICJ.
In its January ruling, the ICJ had ordered Israel to do everything in its power to prevent genocidal acts and enable humanitarian aid to Gaza. However, the court stopped short of ordering a ceasefire.
The October 7 Hamas attack that killed 1,200 people in Israel and led to over 250 being taken hostage triggered Israel's war in Gaza. Since then, over 35,000 people have been killed during Israel's attacks in Gaza, according to Palestinian authorities.
(With agency input)