Maldives feels the pinch as Indians shun the islands. What do numbers say?

Only 34,847 Indian tourists visited the Maldives in the first quarter of this year, down from 56,208 in the same period last year—a 38 per cent decrease. This figure is even lower than the first quarter of 2019, which saw 36,053 Indian tourists, reported the Hindustan Times (HT).

Despite being the top source market for the Maldives post-Covid-19 from 2021 to 2023, India's numbers have started declining this year, said the report.

This decline coincides with the "India Out" campaign by Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu and the subsequent Boycott Maldives trend among Indians. 

The issue gained traction after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the Lakshadweep islands, sparking the "Visit Lakshadweep" trend alongside "Boycott Maldives" on social media. Not only did celebrities and social media influencers join the trend, but online travel agencies also participated. Many questioned whether the trend was genuine or merely part of a social media frenzy; however, the numbers now indicate its reality.

Shift in top inbound tourists to the Maldives

India not only dropped as a source market, but the absolute numbers also decreased. Chinese tourists, who were the top inbound tourists to the Maldives pre-Covid, have reclaimed that title as China progressively opens up for travel after nearly four years of restrictions. China remains possibly the last country in the world with some form of embargo, formal or informal.

In 2018, just under 100,000 Indians visited the Maldives, while 283,000 Chinese tourists were recorded. Indian numbers increased to 160,000 in 2019, but 2021 was a watershed year with 291,000 Indians visiting the Maldives due to global tourist restrictions and Maldives being open, albeit subject to RT-PCR tests. In contrast, only 2,238 Chinese tourists visited in 2021 due to strict lockdowns in China.

During the initial quarter of FY24, there has been a decline in the number of Indian and Chinese tourists compared to the benchmark set in 2019. However, in comparison to the preceding year, Indian tourist arrivals have decreased by approximately 40 per cent, whereas Chinese arrivals have nearly tripled.

India-Maldives row: Fall in flight bookings

Flight reductions have also contributed to the decline. 

Data from Cirium, an aviation analytics company, shows that the India-Maldives market saw 8 fewer flights per week and a reduction of over 2,000 weekly seats in the January to March quarter of this year compared to last year. However, frequencies remained the same as in 2024, although with higher capacity, indicating challenges in the market.

An average week in Q1 (January to March) this year witnessed 21 weekly flights by IndiGo, 14 weekly flights by Vistara, and six weekly flights by Air India. Maldivian operated ten flights per week in India. 

Compared to the previous year, IndiGo has withdrawn from the Delhi-Male market, while Go First has ceased operations. Go First previously had 10 weekly flights to Male from India. Maldivian has also pulled out of the Hanimaadhoo to Trivandrum route. Vistara did not operate before the Covid-19 pandemic, but SpiceJet and Go FIRST had larger operations. The same trend was observed with Maldivian.

The reduction in flights is attributed to a combination of seasonal factors, aircraft availability, and the demand trend, especially following the social media frenzy.

Factors driving Indian tourists away

Nationalism, coupled with cheaper alternatives and ease of visa access to countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia, is driving Indian tourism away from the Maldives and other destinations. These countries offer direct connectivity and, in some cases, visa-free travel, making them more attractive than the once-popular Maldives.

In the upcoming month, there will be 57 weekly non-stop flights, offering 14,117 seats each way between India and Vietnam. Indonesia will have 21 weekly flights, providing 4,697 seats. Malaysia will offer 206 weekly flights, providing 38,629 seats each way, and Thailand will have 266 weekly flights, offering 52,696 seats each way. In contrast, the Maldives will only have 47 weekly flights, with 8,108 seats each way.

The Maldives is renowned for its luxurious yet costly destinations, typically featuring a resort per island. During the Covid-19 pandemic, the hospitality industry faced significant challenges, prompting a decline in rates. Despite this, travellers capitalised on the reduced rates and increased acceptance during the pandemic. As rates return to pre-pandemic levels and amidst less favourable diplomatic relations, the allure of visa-free access in other countries adds appeal. With the Maldives tourism board scheduling roadshows in India, the question arises: will this garner sufficient attention to entice travellers to visit the Maldives? Only time will reveal the answer as we await the forthcoming data.